steering

[wxwonder12]

What else besides the Bermuda High will direct a Hurricane? This may sound like a dumb question, but I really would like to know. If a Hurricane was heading West to the East coast of Florida and the Bermuda High was not setteled like it was in 2004, what else could there be to turn the storm out to sea or to the North or possibly South. I just don't know that much about it and got real interested last year after living through Francis and Jeanne. Most of the talk on the TV stations was about that Bermuda High and that was the reason we got hit so many times, but reading the threads posted, the high is obviously not the only thing to regulate the track of a storm. Thanks.

[Scott_inVA]

What else besides the Bermuda High will direct a Hurricane? This may sound like a dumb question, but I really would like to know. If a Hurricane was heading West to the East coast of Florida and the Bermuda High was not setteled like it was in 2004, what else could there be to turn the storm out to sea or to the North or possibly South. I just don't know that much about it and got real interested last year after living through Francis and Jeanne. Most of the talk on the TV stations was about that Bermuda High and that was the reason we got hit so many times, but reading the threads posted, the high is obviously not the only thing to regulate the track of a storm. Thanks.

Trof placement/amplitude over CONUS is a huge factor in where a TC may go. Is there a Ridge over the SW CONUS...how strong? Those are just 2 components. That doesn't even get into ENSO and MJO.

Some truth in media's easy explaination for 04...Ridge was well positioned and strong. The Ridge was resilient through October last year and the opinion of many (including me) is it will be dominant again this summer. When you examine the mean trof placement this Spring a strong case can be made for Florida and the eastern GOM...possibly SC/NC as favored "hit" areas this year.

Scott

[rainydaze]

I am by no means an expert, but this is the best way hurricane steering currents were explained to me. A hurricane will take the path of least resistance. Imagine if you had a small piece of paper a you set it in a river. Now imagine the rocks in the river are bermuda highs. Rocks in a river block the path of the piece of paper. In other words, it's impossible for a piece of paper to flow through a rock...it will always go around it. So hurricanes are just pieces of paper floating down the river and a Bermuda high blocks it's path, so the hurricane goes around it. Now, when the Bermuda high is "in the way" like it was last year, the hurricane can not go north. But, if the Bermuda high is not there and not in the way, the hurricane is not blocked and it continues north farther up the east coast. So, when you drop a piece of paper in the river, that paper does not "steer" itself, it simply floats down a path of least resistance in the river....and that's how a hurricane is too.

If anyone wants to add to or correct me, please do

[gatorcane]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

wxwonder12, the media is actually right about the Bermuda High feature, HOWEVER, we must remember that hurricanes hit FL from all directions not just from the East. The East coast of FL (especially the Southeast coast) would be obliterated if a major hurricane came in from the South (Caribbean) or West (Gulf). The Everglades are not going to weaken a hurricane much at all. Steering currents are complex but without a Bermuda High feature, usually storms will curve north into the Atlantic as troughs from the NW usually turn them north. Troughs can act as a blocking mechanism. But if storms are in the Caribbean or Gulf, troughs actually pull them into FL

This year I don't think the Bermuda High will be as strong. One reason is that there is absolutely no Bermuda High feature this May and here we are almost into June...last year was a much different story at this time...

So this year I think we are going to see above normal activity in the Atlantic but most storms will turn out to sea...we will see one or two I think threathen the east coast from the Atlantic....but they will threaten farther north than FL probably the Carolinas or even the Northeast BUT look to the GOM and Caribbean...that is where we will see the most activity this year...and I think the West coast and Southern FL are under the gun this year. The East coast is less at risk. I'm predicting some early TS activity in the Gulf/Caribbean in late June, a hurricane in July/August also...then by September the Atlantic will heat up but most storms will turn north out to sea...

[dhweather]

-removed-, by far, directs hurricanes where to go.

[x-y-no]

This year I don't think the Bermuda High will be as strong. One reason is that there is absolutely no Bermuda High feature this May and here we are almost into June...last year was a much different story at this time...

Patience, Grasshopper ...

[dhweather]

Jan - scary how things are falling into place just in time for the
2005 season.


David

[cyclonaut]

Yep you got the SSTs toasty & getting toastier.The ridge trying to build in.Once the UL conditions get favorable the blobs will have a shot @ develoment.

B_C you make very good points in your 1st paragraph but then you got lost in the Bermuda High Triangle again.Just because this May does'nt perfectly mirror last May does'nt mean that everything will be completly opposite of last year..I honestly think that your 3rd paragraph needs a disclaimer because you seem pretty certain about whats going to happen in the next few months even though you are all over the place with your forecast.