Sign of something to come?

[HURAKAN]

We are always discussing the correlation between dry Mays in the SE of the United States and the cyclonic activity over the mentioned area, thereafter, I find interesting to show you these maps provided by the Weather Channel that foresee a dry season up to July with temperatures above average for the area. We already foresee a busy season, but it seems everything is coming together for the spectable of the 2005.

[rainstorm]

i hope its hot and dry in virginia

[cyclonaut]

Thanks HURAKAN that is interesting.

[Skywatch_NC]

i hope its hot and dry in virginia

And after a while your lawn would end up all brown and 'burned' from drought.

[x-y-no]

What this means is that they expect the mean trough to be in the midwest, with ridging in the southeast.

I belive they're right.

[Anonymous]

Hmmm--I hate to say this but... those maps show the southeast having "drier and warmer than normal" conditions. This means the southeast WILL NOT see a hurricane as a hurricane can dump 2 months worth of rainfall in one day. That would erase the drier than normal forecast so it looks like the southeast is safe at least through july.

[rainstorm]

i hope its hot and dry in virginia

And after a while your lawn would end up all brown and 'burned' from drought.

the lawn dont belong to me, and that means no grass cutting. nice

[x-y-no]

Hmmm--I hate to say this but... those maps show the southeast having "drier and warmer than normal" conditions. This means the southeast WILL NOT see a hurricane as a hurricane can dump 2 months worth of rainfall in one day. That would erase the drier than normal forecast so it looks like the southeast is safe at least through july.

Two points here:

1) This prediction is through July only.

2) These kind of climate predictions cannot possibly account for events like hurricanes.

Jan

[cyclonaut]

Hmmm--I hate to say this but... those maps show the southeast having "drier and warmer than normal" conditions. This means the southeast WILL NOT see a hurricane as a hurricane can dump 2 months worth of rainfall in one day. That would erase the drier than normal forecast so it looks like the southeast is safe at least through july.

Two points here:

1) This prediction is through July only.

2)These kind of climate predictions cannot possibly account for events like hurricanes.

Jan

You stole those words right out of my mouth!

[Air Force Met]

Hmmm--I hate to say this but... those maps show the southeast having "drier and warmer than normal" conditions. This means the southeast WILL NOT see a hurricane as a hurricane can dump 2 months worth of rainfall in one day. That would erase the drier than normal forecast so it looks like the southeast is safe at least through july.

No...it doesn't mean they will not see a hurricane. It means the expected mean ridge position will be over the SE US. The ridge can be embedded for 3 months...with a weakness over 2 days...and that could be when the storm slips through. These forecasts do not consider tropical activity at all...just mean ridge/trough locations.

[bosag]

Its already hot enough down here, I hope it doesnt get any hotter!!

And whats with all the catapillars/butterflies this year? We have hundreds in our back yard. These specifically are black w/ yellow heads? Barb

[dhweather]

Hmmm--I hate to say this but... those maps show the southeast having "drier and warmer than normal" conditions. This means the southeast WILL NOT see a hurricane as a hurricane can dump 2 months worth of rainfall in one day. That would erase the drier than normal forecast so it looks like the southeast is safe at least through july.

No...it doesn't mean they will not see a hurricane. It means the expected mean ridge position will be over the SE US. The ridge can be embedded for 3 months...with a weakness over 2 days...and that could be when the storm slips through. These forecasts do not consider tropical activity at all...just mean ridge/trough locations.

Well, if that verifies, Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi are likely in for a Hurricane this year.

[Ixolib]

Hi DH - Can you give a few more details on your viewpoint here?

Well, if that verifies, Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi are likely in for a Hurricane this year.

[HurryKane]

Hi DH - Can you give a few more details on your viewpoint here?

Well, if that verifies, Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi are likely in for a Hurricane this year.

Yeah, he is crazy. Both about hurricanes and in the normal sense of the word. Hee hee

[Air Force Met]

Hi DH - Can you give a few more details on your viewpoint here?

Well, if that verifies, Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi are likely in for a Hurricane this year.

What he is saying is that with a mean ridge over the SE US...the storm track is pushed west into the GOM...and with a ridge over GA...that means most storms in that ridge pattern will go west of FL...or recurve into the atlantic.

[dhweather]

HurryKane speaks the truth...... HA!!!

[dhweather]

Hi DH - Can you give a few more details on your viewpoint here?

Well, if that verifies, Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi are likely in for a Hurricane this year.

Sure - the odds that a high will be centered over the southeast US,
meaning the ridge will generally direct systems that enter the GOM
towards the west, then North around the periphery of that high.

[Rainband]

Hi DH - Can you give a few more details on your viewpoint here?

Well, if that verifies, Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi are likely in for a Hurricane this year.

What he is saying is that with a mean ridge over the SE US...the storm track is pushed west into the GOM...and with a ridge over GA...that means most storms in that ridge pattern will go west of FL...or recurve into the atlantic.

ah if we had a crystal ball I hope your right Florida needs a break

[TampaFl]

ah if we had a crystal ball I hope your right Florida needs a break

Lets all hope so for Florida's sake.

Robert

[Ixolib]

Hi DH - Can you give a few more details on your viewpoint here?

Well, if that verifies, Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi are likely in for a Hurricane this year.

Sure - the odds that a high will be centered over the southeast US,
meaning the ridge will generally direct systems that enter the GOM
towards the west, then North around the periphery of that high.

Thank you... So, if the ridge holds, upper GOM coast - correct?. If it (the ridge) slips further south and east, GOM storms may be more inclined to recurve toward the FL Big Bend area? And this is not the Bermuda high?