What Major U.S. City Will Get Hit By A Monster Cane?

[cyclonaut]

Based on the great thread that SouthernWx started & the thought provoking thread that Floydbuster started about The Big One in New Orleans.Also something I think about from time to time..

Which major metropolitan area listed do you think has the highest probability of getting struck by a CAT 4 or 5 hurricane sooner rather than later

[Anonymous]

Miami, FL. I think they will be hit this year, but that is my opinion. They tend to be hit by a major hurricane once every ten years, and Andrew was 13 yrs ago.

[SouthernWx]

Miami has to get my vote because hurricane climatology tells us southern Florida is struck more often by intense hurricanes than anywhere else in America...

Saying that, I'm not so sure the next "big one" for southeast Florida will target Miami or Dade county. IMO of more concern are areas just to the north....Broward and Palm Beach counties. This area is now home to nearly 3 million residents, and the last major hurricane to impact either county occurred at least 55 years ago.

While Andrew didn't make a direct hit on the city of Miami, it did impact southern Dade county (as did Betsy in 1965); meaning two direct hits by major canes occurred just south of Miami since 1965...as opposed to none for areas north of Miami; areas just as hurricane prone and just as vunerable.

I also believe the middle and lower Florida Keys are more likely to be impacted by the core of a major hurricane this season than Miami-Metro Dade.

PW

[Brent]

Miami
New Orleans
Houston
Tampa
Jacksonville
Washington

in that order... from best chance to lowest.

[HurryKane]

My vote went to Miami, but strictly on a hunch--no brain power/scientific analysis involved (gut power only).

[cyclonaut]

Miami has to get my vote because hurricane climatology tells us southern Florida is struck more often by intense hurricanes than anywhere else in America...

Saying that, I'm not so sure the next "big one" for southeast Florida will target Miami or Dade county. IMO of more concern are areas just to the north....Broward and Palm Beach counties. This area is now home to nearly 3 million residents, and the last major hurricane to impact either county occurred at least 55 years ago.

While Andrew didn't make a direct hit on the city of Miami, it did impact southern Dade county (as did Betsy in 1965); meaning two direct hits by major canes occurred just south of Miami since 1965...as opposed to none for areas north of Miami; areas just as hurricane prone and just as vunerable.

I also believe the middle and lower Florida Keys are more likely to be impacted by the core of a major hurricane this season than Miami-Metro Dade.

PW

Yeah one could argue that Broward & Palm Beach County could be,well it actually is a major metro area because there sure are lots of people there but its not a "big city" in the true sense of the word.

& please not the Keys!

[krysof]

it's time

[StormChasr]

Miami won't be hit this yea--U.S. Landfallers, if any, will be in the Outer Banks. I see many fish.

[Anonymous]

I have to disagree. The Gulf may be in for a long season.

[skywarn]

I have to disagree. The Gulf may be in for a long season.

I also agree.

[SouthernWx]

Yeah one could argue that Broward & Palm Beach County could be,well it actually is a major metro area because there sure are lots of people there but its not a "big city" in the true sense of the word.

True, but with three million residents and trillions in expensive property sitting in harms way, the impact of a 130+ mph hurricane anywhere between Hallandale and West Palm Beach would be an economic catastrophe.

If a large 135-140 mph cat-4 hurricane (such as Hugo) were to cross the coast near Hollywood, Florida....cross the Everglades and move into the GOM between Naples and Fort Myers, the core region would directly affect over 7,000,000 people (as compared to 350,000 or so in the core region/ eyewall path of Andrew).

PW

[Anonymous]

Miami won't be hit this yea--U.S. Landfallers, if any, will be in the Outer Banks. I see many fish.

You seem to see a slow season when most factors point to above average. What is your reasoning for little US activity?

[cyclonaut]

Yeah one could argue that Broward & Palm Beach County could be,well it actually is a major metro area because there sure are lots of people there but its not a "big city" in the true sense of the word.

True, but with three million residents and trillions in expensive property sitting in harms way, the impact of a 130+ mph hurricane anywhere between Hallandale and West Palm Beach would be an economic catastrophe.

If a large 135-140 mph cat-4 hurricane (such as Hugo) were to cross the coast near Hollywood, Florida....cross the Everglades and move into the GOM between Naples and Fort Myers, the core region would directly affect over 7,000,000 people (as compared to 350,000 or so in the core region/ eyewall path of Andrew).

PW

I agree 110% & I would haved loved to include that area on this poll.

[Hurricanehink]

Las Angeles!
Seriously though, Houston, Texas.

[StormChasr]

You seem to see a slow season when most factors point to above average. What is your reasoning for little US activity?

I definitely do not see a slow season--I've said all along that I see an average to above average season, but the conditions that existed ( troughiness located west to east, and leading storms into Florida landfalls) is not setting up like last year. Right now, shear is considerable, and I believe that it won't relax as much as most peeople think. I anticipate a 2003 type season--active, but not that much in the active major landfall department. Too much hoopla about the Bermuda High of last year. Recurvature storms affecting Hatteras are not a difficult call, and that is what I see this year. ALso, I agree the Gulf is very warm, but would think that is more an issue for the SOUTHERN portion of the Gulf, and the Carribbean---a Gilbert type of track into Mexico or Belize would not surprise me.

[cyclonaut]

Dead heat between Miami & New Orleans just as one would think.

[Stephanie]

I have to disagree. The Gulf may be in for a long season.

I see the Gulf being impacted more as well. Just a hunch. I chose New Orleans and I hope I'm wrong.

I do believe though that the Mid Atlantic and Northeast should be on it's guard as well. We've had some hurricanes swing by here in the last 6 years such as Floyd and Isabel. I think that there is a trend starting for a more northern impact. Florida had been due and got blasted by 4.

[krysof]

The northeast has been due for a very long time for a major hurricane

[vbhoutex]

The only one in that group that can come close to being ruled out is Washington, D.C.
The rest probably have about the same probability except for maybe Jacksonville. The only reason I say that is that the shape of the coast where J'ville is a help in some ways in that it "juts in" as opposed to "jutting out" like Cape Hatteras and E NC. or MIami.

If you want to go by patterns and current thoughts on the season then I would have to go with Miami(for obvious reasons) and then place NO, Houston, Tampa on an even footing with emphasis on NO and Houston. All three are just as vulnerable to this every season when current weather patterns are not factored in.

[cajungal]

Seems New Orleans and Miami could be running for a tie. Remember we could always get a double hit like Miami then New Orleans.