Long term GFS...Possible systems?

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon May 30, 2005 5:30 am

I know models are not that good far out, but it is always interesting. For a few days now, I have been watching the GFS model runs towards the first week of June. The GFS has show some hints of a 1008 MB LOW in the Western Caribbean Sea. However, this morning, the GFS shows a Gulf system:::

Then...by June 11th, the low (WHICH CLEARY HAS A CYCLONIC LOOK TO IT) is over Louisiana...

Something we will need to watch.

James · #2 Postby **James** » Mon May 30, 2005 5:36 am

Hmm, now that is interesting. Even though that degree of uncertainty is there, it will certainly be something to look out for. Thanks for posting those.

#3 Postby **Cookiely** » Mon May 30, 2005 5:56 am

Does this have to do with the massive thunderstorms over the Yucatan yesterday moving into the GOM?

#4 Postby **Cookiely** » Mon May 30, 2005 5:57 am

Cookiely wrote:Does this have to do with the massive thunderstorms over the Yucatan yesterday moving into the GOM?

They were so impressive I tried to find a pressure in the area but couldn't find out.

#5 Postby **TampaFl** » Mon May 30, 2005 6:25 am

[quote="~Floydbuster"]I. The GFS has show some hints of a 1008 MB LOW in the Western Caribbean Sea. However, this morning, the GFS shows a Gulf system:::

:eek:

Floydbuster, agree long range is not as accurate, but with the old front/trough sinking south along the Gulf Coast, do you think a piece of that energy could get into the NW Caribbean and start the whole process? Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Robert 8-)

x-y-no · #6 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon May 30, 2005 8:48 am

I've been watching that June 7-10 period of the GFS for a few days also. This is the first time it's actually trying to develop something, and I'm pretty skeptical of where it's trying to do it. But I think there's a chance of something in the western or central Caribbean around that time.

Most likely nothing will come of it, but I'll be watching the trend. :-)

Jan

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 30, 2005 8:50 am

Trends are the best thing to follow run after run.

Ola · #8 Postby **Ola** » Mon May 30, 2005 8:56 am

Could it have something to do with this?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
610 AM AST MON MAY 30 2005

A TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY AT 37 WEST AND SOUTH OF 15 NORTH IS BEING FORECAST TO
APPROACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY... THEN MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA AND BECOME MORE POSITIVELY
TILTED...PASSING PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY MORNING OF NEXT WEEK. A
SECOND WAVE THEN APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

Rainband · #9 Postby **Rainband** » Mon May 30, 2005 9:05 am

I agree Luis trends are what to look for. That being said. If we do get a "system" this early. I am moving :lol:

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon May 30, 2005 9:14 am

Rainband wrote:I agree Luis trends are what to look for. That being said. If we do get a "system" this early. I am moving

I agree!!!! :lol:

#11 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon May 30, 2005 10:07 am

It seems to me the the GFS is usually "on to something" in the long range forecast although the strengths of the systems are usually over blown. It's the medium range for the GFS that seems to be questionable and when it tends to "lose" a system.

We'll have to keep an eye on it!

x-y-no · #12 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon May 30, 2005 10:22 am

Stephanie wrote:It seems to me the the GFS is usually "on to something" in the long range forecast although the strengths of the systems are usually over blown. It's the medium range for the GFS that seems to be questionable and when it tends to "lose" a system.

We'll have to keep an eye on it!

I don't worry myself over whether the models see development in the long range or not - they're none of them particularly good at that. Instead, I watch the evolution of conditions on a larger scale and see if the trend is towards more favorable conditions for development. Often, there'll be a region which looks interesting, and then all of a sudden about 72 hours out or so the models will start jumping all over it. (Of course more often nothing happens ;-)

)

I'm pretty skeptical that things can come together at the timeframe we're discussing - the southern branch of the jet is still meandering down into the western Caribbean too regularly, and the waves traversing are still too southerly in general for a truly tropical development. The notion of a cut-off low doing something in the western Carribean mentioned above is probably the best possibility for the next while.

Jan

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon May 30, 2005 1:12 pm

Cookiely wrote:Does this have to do with the massive thunderstorms over the Yucatan yesterday moving into the GOM?

TampaFl wrote:Floydbuster, agree long range is not as accurate, but with the old front/trough sinking south along the Gulf Coast, do you think a piece of that energy could get into the NW Caribbean and start the whole process? Thoughts and comments welcomed.
Robert

I do not think so, this will be June 9th by the time anything would happen if it did.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 30, 2005 1:24 pm

The 12z GFS run does not open eyebrows about anything until the 12th of june.

Long term GFS...Possible systems?

Long term GFS...Possible systems?

Re: Long term GFS...Possible systems?

Re: Long term GFS...Possible systems?

Who is online