Very heavy rain/flooding possible in fla--unusual for may!

[Anonymous]

I know I upped my numbers to 16/10/5 and dr gray upped his as well. However, forecasts and HWO's like this make me wonder why. We are supposed to get deluged with rain and a chance of severe weather over the next few days. It is still our fire season and we in any normal year should be dry as a bone. Jax's forecast and HWO is below and taking that as well as our recent weather alone into consideration would tell me 2005 is already a dud season--el nino like poof-nada. I know there is no el-nino but whats the deal here? I dunno--maybe the ssts are so warm they have caused an imbalance in our climate which may make this season especially active.

Forecast....

Rest Of Today...Becoming mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...Then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms May be strong with small hail and gusty winds. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Some thunderstorms May produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms May produce heavy rainfall. Lows around 70. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms May produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Highs in the upper 80s.

Thursday...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Highs in the upper 80s.

HWO from Jax....

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. STORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...THEN
DEVELOP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
REGION. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

[Scorpion]

What does flooding in Florida have anything to do with the amount of major hurricanes that will form in the next 4-5 months?

[Brent]

What does flooding in Florida have anything to do with the amount of major hurricanes that will form in the next 4-5 months?

Exactly.

Just like these "theories" that a dry May means a bad season for Florida.

Troughs are very common down into Florida this time of year. Heck... Charley was forced NE by one all the way into the Gulf in MID-AUGUST last year.

[cyclonaut]

Yeah it boggles the mind as to why some folks continue to make such correlations.

[vbhoutex]

What does flooding in Florida have anything to do with the amount of major hurricanes that will form in the next 4-5 months?

Exactly.

Just like these "theories" that a dry May means a bad season for Florida.

Troughs are very common down into Florida this time of year. Heck... Charley was forced NE by one all the way into the Gulf in MID-AUGUST last year.

The trough that moved Charley as it did was VERY UNUSUAL for that time of year!!!

[Brent]

What does flooding in Florida have anything to do with the amount of major hurricanes that will form in the next 4-5 months?

Exactly.

Just like these "theories" that a dry May means a bad season for Florida.

Troughs are very common down into Florida this time of year. Heck... Charley was forced NE by one all the way into the Gulf in MID-AUGUST last year.

The trough that moved Charley as it did was VERY UNUSUAL for that time of year!!!

Yep... and Florida still got hit 3 more times(if you count Ivan) 4-6 weeks later. If the pattern can change that fast, it certainly can change in the 3 to 3 1/2 months we've got til the peak of the season.

[southerngale]

What does flooding in Florida have anything to do with the amount of major hurricanes that will form in the next 4-5 months?

Exactly.

Just like these "theories" that a dry May means a bad season for Florida.

Troughs are very common down into Florida this time of year. Heck... Charley was forced NE by one all the way into the Gulf in MID-AUGUST last year.

The trough that moved Charley as it did was VERY UNUSUAL for that time of year!!!

That's what I was about to say as well. We've had a very dry May here until the last few days. Then it started falling in buckets. It didn't even occur to me that could affect the hurricanes.

[StormChasr]

sorry, double post--edited

[StormChasr]

t didn't even occur to me that could affect the hurricanes.

I don't think it does. I guess this is a new theory, kinda like reading T-leaves?

Here's Mystic Tarot's call on the hurricane season (as valid as many other views, I guess.): http://www.themystictarot.com/2005_hurricane_season_predictions.htm

[cyclonaut]

That sure was a indepth forecast.

[wxwonder12]

I wonder what Ms.Cleo has to say about the situation

[jlauderdal]

I know I upped my numbers to 16/10/5 and dr gray upped his as well. However, forecasts and HWO's like this make me wonder why. We are supposed to get deluged with rain and a chance of severe weather over the next few days. It is still our fire season and we in any normal year should be dry as a bone. Jax's forecast and HWO is below and taking that as well as our recent weather alone into consideration would tell me 2005 is already a dud season--el nino like poof-nada. I know there is no el-nino but whats the deal here? I dunno--maybe the ssts are so warm they have caused an imbalance in our climate which may make this season especially active.

Forecast....

Rest Of Today...Becoming mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning...Then showers and thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms May be strong with small hail and gusty winds. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the south in the afternoon. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Some thunderstorms May produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms May produce heavy rainfall. Lows around 70. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms May produce heavy rainfall. Highs in the mid 80s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.

Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Highs in the upper 80s.

Thursday...Partly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 70. Highs in the upper 80s.

HWO from Jax....

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. STORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...THEN
DEVELOP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...THEN ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST
REGION. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS WELL AS PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

how long have you been living florida? the average start to the rainy season in so flay is around the 20th and it isn;t much different in jacksonvillle. june is the wettest month of the year on average os flooding rains and severe weather may 30th is far from unusual. heck we have had hail reports everyday since thursday here.

also, take a couple of minutes folks and remmber the soldiers, memorial day is alot more than just cues and drinking beer. put the flag up or have your own little rememberance even if you are pounding down a six pack. went to a very nice 1/2 hour parade today in pompano and it was time well spent. politicians, fire, police, soldiers, boy scouts, girl scouts, republican party, democratic party, marching bad, sheriff, etc. were all present and a good time was had to by the adults and the kids. enjoy your day off people but lets not lose our focus as to why we aren't working.

cheers,
jlauderdal

[southerngale]

We had a very emotional tribute honoring and remembering our soldiers. We also had everyone who was active/inactive who had served in any part of the military speak. We had a 21 gun salute, the band played patriotic songs, etc. I'll never forget...