GOM system holding together 3mb drop in 1 hr buoy 42005

#1 Postby **drezee** » Mon May 30, 2005 8:07 am

if the complex off of Tampico can hold together over the GOM.

x-y-no · #2 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon May 30, 2005 8:37 am

Well, the Gulf coast is in for another day of severe thunderstorms, but there's no way anything organizes in the Gulf right now - the upper air conditions are way too hostile.

Jan

#3 Postby **drezee** » Mon May 30, 2005 9:15 am

x-y-no wrote:Well, the Gulf coast is in for another day of severe thunderstorms, but there's no way anything organizes in the Gulf right now - the upper air conditions are way too hostile.

Jan

Shear is relative to the direction of motion of the system. The system is moving the same direction of the upper winds...east. Much like Lenny in the carribean....

x-y-no · #4 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon May 30, 2005 9:27 am

drezee wrote:
x-y-no wrote:Well, the Gulf coast is in for another day of severe thunderstorms, but there's no way anything organizes in the Gulf right now - the upper air conditions are way too hostile.

Jan

Shear is relative to the direction of motion of the system. The system is moving the same direction of the upper winds...east. Much like Lenny in the carribean....

Yes, that's true. But I doubt that whatever we've got there at the lower levels is going to go trucking east fast enough to compensate for 40 or more knots shear.

On top of that, I think the jet is only going to get stronger in that region over the next day.

Jan

#5 Postby **tailgater** » Mon May 30, 2005 9:45 am

Shear not bad in northwest gulf but that's not tropical in nature at all

krysof · #6 Postby **krysof** » Mon May 30, 2005 9:51 am

where do I get the wind shear maps?

x-y-no · #7 Postby **x-y-no** » Mon May 30, 2005 9:55 am

krysof wrote:where do I get the wind shear maps?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... winds.html

#8 Postby **drezee** » Mon May 30, 2005 9:57 am

It is about to pass over buoy 42055.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

#9 Postby **drezee** » Mon May 30, 2005 1:20 pm

I am not ringing the bell, but it is interesting that the winds:

12:50 pm NNE ( 20 deg ) 6.5 m/s
12:40 pm NNE ( 19 deg ) 5.1 m/s
12:30 pm NNE ( 23 deg ) 3.6 m/s
12:20 pm N ( 359 deg ) 3.3 m/s
12:10 pm N ( 353 deg ) 2.9 m/s
12:00 pm NW ( 305 deg ) 5.1 m/s
11:50 pm WNW ( 285 deg ) 9.1 m/s
10:50 pm S ( 185 deg ) 3.0 m/s

And the pressure:
12:50 pm 1007.7
11:50 pm 1010.6
10:50 pm 1009.9

#10 Postby **LSU2001** » Mon May 30, 2005 2:10 pm

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

......DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TAMPICO
MEXICO AROUND TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXTENDING S FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE E MEXICAN COAST TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THIS TROUGH IS MOVING E INTO THE GULF AND BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF
IN 24-36 HOURS. THE BEST LIFT/DYNAMICS ARE OVER E TEXAS AND
ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE AREA. E GULF REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CUBA TO THE GEORGIA COAST COVERING
THE AREA FROM 70W-90W. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AND BE OVER THE W
ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS
MOVING UPWARD COURTESY OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER MEXICO THUS
ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES TO A 1007 MB
LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE INDUCED BY THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS OVER-ALL PATTERN IS PRODUCING
A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE GULF AS DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE SURGES N OVER THE E HALF OF THE AREA.

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 30, 2005 2:13 pm

lsu2001 wrote:Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

000
AXNT20 KNHC 301046
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

......DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM TAMPICO
MEXICO AROUND TEXAS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXTENDING S FROM
CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG THE E MEXICAN COAST TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THIS TROUGH IS MOVING E INTO THE GULF AND BE IN THE CENTRAL GULF
IN 24-36 HOURS. THE BEST LIFT/DYNAMICS ARE OVER E TEXAS AND
ALONG THE N PORTION OF THE AREA. E GULF REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CUBA TO THE GEORGIA COAST COVERING
THE AREA FROM 70W-90W. THIS RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AND BE OVER THE W
ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS
MOVING UPWARD COURTESY OF THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER MEXICO THUS
ENHANCING THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE CONTINUED THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG...
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES TO A 1007 MB
LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. MESOSCALE FEATURES ARE INDUCED BY THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS OVER-ALL PATTERN IS PRODUCING
A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE GULF AS DEEP-LAYERED
MOISTURE SURGES N OVER THE E HALF OF THE AREA.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2005

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EJECTING EWD OUT OF CNTRL MEXICO
AND TEXAS INTO THE W GULF...WITH DRY NWLY FLOW SPREADING OUT
ACROSS THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. THE ENVIRONMENT E OF THE TROF HAS
BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION...WITH
UPPER DIFFLUENCE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS TSTMS BEGAN DEVELOPING ALONG THE N GULF COAST
LATE LAST NIGHT...AND NOW THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
PROPAGATED S AND E OVER OPEN WATER. MULTIPLE SQUALL LINES ARE
OCCURRING ALONG THE OUTFLOW...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION CURRENTLY WITHIN 250 NM NW OF A LINE FROM 21N94W TO
29N86W. THE UPPER TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEATHER IS FORECAST
TO LUMBER ACROSS THE GULF FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AND WILL KEEP
THE STAGE SET FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ON AND
OFF THRU THE WEEK. THE MOST PROFOUND MOISTURE POOL IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE W GULF... COINCIDENT WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY...BUT
WILL SHIFT EWD ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROF. THIS WILL FAVOR STRONG
CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA TUE AND
WED.

The above is the 2:05 PM EDT discussion about the Gulf Of Mexico.

southerngale · #12 Postby **southerngale** » Mon May 30, 2005 2:13 pm

That's the system that hammered us last night. I watched it roll off the coast in the wee morning hours. I don't think it's going to develop into anything.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 30, 2005 2:15 pm

southerngale wrote:That's the system that hammered us last night. I watched it roll off the coast in the wee morning hours. I don't think it's going to develop into anything.

Yep Kelly nothing there that will form.

Josephine96 · #14 Postby **Josephine96** » Mon May 30, 2005 2:15 pm

Looks like the blob watch has already started..

#15 Postby **dhweather** » Mon May 30, 2005 2:16 pm

Is it headed to North Carolina? :lol:

cyclonaut · #16 Postby **cyclonaut** » Mon May 30, 2005 2:18 pm

dhweather wrote:Is it headed to North Carolina?

Not yet but North Carolina is in the 3 month cone.

#17 Postby **LSU2001** » Mon May 30, 2005 3:47 pm

and it will be a CAT 5 when it gets there
:lol:

#18 Postby **Wpwxguy** » Mon May 30, 2005 4:14 pm

Just a quick update................convection seems to be increasing and the pressure is quickly falling. Its sure stormy out there.
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1005.4 mb
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -3.2 mb ( Falling Rapidly
From the NOAA Buoy report.

kevin · #19 Postby **kevin** » Mon May 30, 2005 4:19 pm

Which bouy?

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon May 30, 2005 4:20 pm

http://www.weatherunderground.com/globa ... llite.html

For blobwatchers here this is something to look at although upper enviroment is not too favorable right now.

GOM system holding together 3mb drop in 1 hr buoy 42005

GOM system holding together 3mb drop in 1 hr buoy 42005

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