When Will IT Happen To Broward County?

[cyclonaut]

I have been into the tropics since age 9 when Hurricane David came very close to my area.I am aware of the hurricane history down here.SW Fla,The Keys,Miami-Dade & Palm Beach Counties have taken the brunt of many hurricanes.For whatever reason however Broward County has not had a direct hit from a major hurricane since records have been kept.I have been somewhat aware of this but I just had an eye opener right now.

I was @ the e-transit.org site looking at all the major hurricanes that have traveled in & around this area & the main thing that stuck out was the absence of any past tracks over Broward County..The closest was the monstrous 47 hurricane that made landfall in south Palm Beach County & moved W/SW through northern Broward..That hurricane affected Broward in a big way but it was not a direct hit.

Notice the absence of tracks in Broward.

1921 - 1940

1941 - 1960

1961 - 2000


(You can view these PDF file in their complete form by clicking)

http://www.fpl.com/storm/contents/hurricane_history.shtml

Here is another example;

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Lines every which way but loose all over South Florida except for Broward.

I worry that one day that void will be filled.

Also northern Miami -Dade has'nt had an eye of a major storm in long,long time as well.

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/map.asp?command=scope&annot=%7C&vis=2%7C1%7C&width=0&table=%2FMaptitudeTempFiles%2Fa65be2ae6.htm&scope=-80308794%7C25855701%7C148.664783%7C123.639545&zoomrect=&panshift=&ml0=2

[tallywx]

From that map, it seems the safest place to live in Florida is Tallahassee. Note the absence of any tracks in the past two centuries over Tallahassee. Wonder why that is.

A hurricane of category 3 magnitude making landfall due south of Tallahassee would force a storm surge of at least 20 feet. Category 5 would make it over 30 feet. Interesting how that doomesday scenario has never been approached.

[Brent]

Perry(SouthernWX) was talking about this last night... he said

True, but with three million residents and trillions in expensive property sitting in harms way, the impact of a 130+ mph hurricane anywhere between Hallandale and West Palm Beach would be an economic catastrophe.

If a large 135-140 mph cat-4 hurricane (such as Hugo) were to cross the coast near Hollywood, Florida....cross the Everglades and move into the GOM between Naples and Fort Myers, the core region would directly affect over 7,000,000 people (as compared to 350,000 or so in the core region/ eyewall path of Andrew).

What's worse is that 99% of the people who have lived there for their entire lives have never experienced a hurricane, and certainly not a major one. The development down there has been extensive over the past decade too.

[Brent]

From that map, it seems the safest place to live in Florida is Tallahassee. Note the absence of any tracks in the past two centuries over Tallahassee. Wonder why that is.

A hurricane of category 3 magnitude making landfall due south of Tallahassee would force a storm surge of at least 20 feet. Category 5 would make it over 30 feet. Interesting how that doomesday scenario has never been approached.

Very strange. Tallahassee seems to get hit by a lot of weak storms(Bonnie and the 2nd Frances landfall last year), Earl in 1998(although it hit Panama City, almost all of the rain and wind was over that way).

[SootyTern]

Could it just be that Broward has a shorter coastline than either Miami-Dade or Palm Beach?

[MGC]

The big bend area of Fla south of Tallahassee is not very populated. Just a few small towns. Yes the surge would be tremendous for a major hurricane. This area just don't have many people thus the risk of a major disaster is remote.....MGC

[gatorcane]

Broward has nothing special nor does Tallahassee. Look at last year. Martin county hadn't had a direct hit and then got hit twice... BTW your map doesn't have Jean or Frances. Broward will be hit soon unfortunately and I'm very afraid of the damage that will result...

[gatorcane]

Another thing...your 1921-1940 map doesn't seem accurate. FL was hit way more than what is shown here. Am I missing something?

[hurricanefloyd5]

be carefull for what you wish for because you just might get it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[gatorcane]

yes, I try not to think about it but you know it's going to happen at some point for metro Palm Beach/Broward/Dade...unless we are lucky for the next 50 years like we have been....I'll wish for that

[cyclonaut]

Well I am not wishing for anything I am just doing what people do in forums like this.

B_C, you'll have to e-mail FP&L...Those are their maps & on any map you find there still won't be a line running though Broward.

[SouthernWx]

The last major hurricane to make a direct hit on Broward county occurred on October 17-18, 1950....a small intense hurricane named "King".

Even though landfall occurred directly over the city of Miami (where winds gusted to over 150 mph at the WBO/ WSFO), major hurricane conditions also affected much of Broward county.....a peak wind gust of 138 mph clocked at Fort Lauderdale.

Before that, the great hurricane of September 1947 crossed directly over Broward county....the large 35 mile diameter covering the entire county. As the hurricane moved inland, very destructive winds occurred all along the Gold Coast (this was an extremely large hurricane); 100 mph+ winds extending along the Florida east coast from Carysfort Reef SE of Miami all the way to Cocoa Beach....with major hurricane conditions (125-130+ mph gusts) from northern Dade county (gust to 110 at the downtown Miami WBAS) to Stuart/ Hobe Sound.

At Hillsboro Light in Broward county, an anemometer recorded sustained 5 minute winds of 121 mph with a 1 minute sustained wind of 155 mph; peak gusts were estimated 150-170 mph in all of Broward and Palm Beach counties...the wind gauge blew away at West Palm Beach airport after a 140 mph gust was recorded. The storm surge reached 11-12' along the beaches of Palm Beach and Broward county.....and in some areas of SoFla, 30-40" of rain fell in three days, causing extensive and serious flooding.

The giant hurricane moved very slowly at only 5 mph across the Everglades then into the eastern GOM near Naples...weakened from estimated 135-140 mph at landfall to 110-115 mph (although there was considerable damage reported along the SW coast). The hurricane then accelerated toward the WNW and impacted New Orleans head on as a cat-3 hurricane (115 mph); while winds weren't catastrophic, storm surge flooding was....along the Mississippi Coast, tides from 12-16' occurred (14.8' tide at Gulfport Harbor the highest of record UNTIL hurricane Camille produced a 21' surge 22 yrs later). New Orleans WBO measured sustained winds near 98 mph w/ peak gusts of 125 mph or so (BEFORE anemometer blew away); even well inland....Baton Rouge caught 94 mph sustained winds with a peak gust to 110 mph (hurricane moved inland at 20+ mph....and took time to wind down inland).

The only reason this ferocious monster wasn't a catastrophe in Florida? In 1947, southeast Florida was still sparsely populated. This was also a very well warned hurricane, tracked for over two weeks from it's origin just off Africa.....was one of the first hurricanes to be researched by Navy and USAF reconnisance aircraft as it approached the Bahamas and Florida (with Dr Robert H. Simpson one of the scientists on board). A repeat of this hurricane in 2005 would directly impact over 9,000,000...and IMO cause damage exceeding 100 billion dollars.

FYI....

Here's a listing of all major landfalling hurricanes to make a direct hit on Broward county since 1870:

Aug 1871 (cat-3)
Aug 1888 (borderline cat-3/4)
Sep 1926 (cat-4)
Sep 1928 (cat-4)
Sep 1933 (cat-3)
Sep 1947 (cat-4)
Aug 1949 (cat-3)
Oct 1950 (cat-3)

PW

My new and growing hurricane website
http://community-2.webtv.net/SouthernWx61

[Radar]

It is very interesting to note that Broward County has avoided a direct hit thus far, but I thought the big bend area south of Tallahasee was even more interesting. IS there a geographical or climatalogical reason why this area may not be as favorable for a direct hurricane hit or is it just shear luck? Any thought on this would be appreciated!

[Brent]

It is very interesting to note that Broward County has avoided a direct hit thus far, but I thought the big bend area south of Tallahasee was even more interesting. IS there a geographical or climatalogical reason why this area may not be as favorable for a direct hurricane hit or is it just shear luck? Any thought on this would be appreciated!

I was thinking maybe it because it juts inward(like NE Florida and Georgia) and because the Florida Peninsula is just to the east. Those storms usually pass safely to the south. They'd have to be pretty far north to hit Tallahassee that way and would have a little water between the Peninsula hit and the Big Bend hit, meaning they wouldn't be that powerful.

Storms coming from the South seem to always push safely west or rarely(like Charley) go safely east.

[cyclonaut]

Well you are correct SouthernWx that King & the 47 hurricane hit parts of Broward hard, but I am looking for a major that made actual landfall in Broward County.I don't think that has happened.@ least according to info provided above.

[Brent]

Well you are correct SouthernWx that King & the 47 hurricane hit parts of Broward hard, but I am looking for a major that made actual landfall in Broward County.I don't think that has happened.@ least according to info provided above.

It seems he's saying the 1947 hurricane made landfall in Broward. Eye "covering the entire county" sounds like it.

[SkeetoBite]

Most comments here seem to ignore the fact that all we see in these maps are the "skinny little lines" that the NHC prefers we ignore.

If every storm depicted had hurricane force winds only 25 miles from the center (50 miles wide), it is safe to assume every square inch of Florida has been hit by a hurricane.

[BayouVenteux]

Most comments here seem to ignore the fact that all we see in these maps are the "skinny little lines" that the NHC prefers we ignore.

If every storm depicted had hurricane force winds only 25 miles from the center (50 miles wide), it is safe to assume every square inch of Florida has been hit by a hurricane.

Indeed SkeetoBite...if the "skinny little line" was the sole criteria, then simply by looking at the map, one would have to say that Ivan was a Baldwin County, Alabama event.

I'm certain the residents of Escambia and Santa Rosa Counties might beg to differ with that assessment.

[cyclonaut]

I know what you mean Skeeto & Bayou.I know just about all of Florida has felt hurricane conditions @ some point.Its just that an actual eye of a major hurricane has not come ashore in Broward going back a long time & I found that interesting.

Brent for some time I had thought that the 47 cane made landfall in Broward but it turns out it actually made landfall in extreme southern Palm Beach