Well folks, Hurricane Season 2005 is pulling into view, with only hours to go until the official start of the season. As we go into this season, many factors are coming into play. Let's take a look at some.
Hurricane Season 2004 was the worst hurricane season on record for the United States coastline with five hurricane landfalls, three of those majors including Category 3 Ivan in Alabama, Category 3 Jeanne in on the East Coast of Florida, and strong Category 4 Hurricane Charley in Southwest Florida.
In all, Hurricane Season 2004's wrath left over 3,000 dead, and damage in the United States at a staggering 45.9 billion dollars making 2004 the costliest Hurricane Season in US History. While 1992's catastrophic Category 5 Hurricane Andrew still holds the title as costliest Hurricane in US history, Hurricane Charley has taken Hugo's spot at number two, Ivan has taken Floyd's number three spot, Frances has taken Isabel's number four spot putting Hugo down to number five, and Jeanne at number six. Making four of the six costliest hurricanes in US history from 2004.
Now that 2004 is behind us and forever in the history books, we look on to Hurricane Season 2005. The 2005 Hurricane Season has the potential to be more active but different than 2004. Here are some factors:::
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST's):::
Here is the kicker folks. Typically, like last season, there are some area's of gasoline that are spilled across the Atlantic Basin. If a mighty hurricane fires over that gasoline, it can explode and deepen very rapidly. (AKA...WARMER WATERS)
Now, this year, there are no spilled areas of gasoline. Somebody has taken ten tanker trucks full of gasoline, and spilled them across the whole basin.
The waters in the Atlantic are so warm, it is phenomenal. Hurricane Opal dropped 49 mb over night on October 3-4, 1995 while crossing over an 85* F eddy in the Gulf of Mexico. Well folks...if a patch of 85* F water can blow a storm up from a Cat 2 to a strong Cat 4 overnight, a hurricane in 2005 will sure like this 85* F patch:::
Amazing. Those waters I pointed out are 85/86* F and warming still. Buoys near the islands have some waters temperatures near 87*F. Since these waters typically warm until July/August, they can certainly get even warmer than they are now. Waters off the coast of Ft. Myers, FL are near 85* F already...and STILL WARMING. 2004 water temperatures pale in comparison to the everyday warming of 2005 temperatures.
These water temperatures will play a huge part in:::
A. Above normal chance for more developing systems
B. Above normal chance for very powerful hurricanes in the Atlantic near and east of the islands, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico mainly.
C. Above normal chance for impacts from major hurricanes in Caribbean and United States
Bermuda High:::
It is still too early to predict the exact position of the Bermuda High come the heart of the season, however, the likelihood is that the High will NOT be in the same position as 2004. It seems as though a more 1995-type pattern may set up.
Of course, 1995 had 19 named storms, but only five systems impacted the United States, one of which was Hurricane Opal, the most powerful hurricane of the season, nearly becoming a Category 5 in the Gulf, weakening as it hit Florida, but still a major hurricane. However, the islands got battered by Tropical Storm Iris, Category 4 Luis, and Category 1 Marilyn in the islands. (A CAT 2 IN PUERTO RICO)
However, the high will still be further west than 1995, putting the US East Coast more at risk than in 1995, in my opinion. There is still a chance it will set up like 2004, but probably somewhat east of 2004's ridge.
EL NINO/NEUTRAL/LA NINA:::
Well, I never expected an El Nino to begin with, and of course, one will not be occurring to be a hindrance for the 2005 Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin. Neutral conditions are very likely across the Atlantic Basin in 2005, yet the pattern is almost setting up like a La Nina. However, overall neutral for the season.
For now folks, I am not going to change my 14/8/5 numbers or do any forecasts, although there ain't no way I'm expecting 14 named storms. I think we may see the names Rita, Stan and even Tammy be used for the first time. We are in for an extraordinary season with some extremely powerful hurricanes. BE PREPARED...
And my names are Gert and Jose for the big ones.
