New Orleans Evac
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- Cookiely
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New Orleans Evac
I was just reading this article on the usatoday website concerning people who evacuate vertically during a hurricane. They go to hotels and ride out the storm in New Orleans. Do you think this would be safe to do?
Hoteliers, used to renting rooms for hurricanes, rethink
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — For a long time, many New Orleans residents have evacuated up rather than out for hurricanes, renting rooms in high-rise hotels.
After all, the steel-and-concrete buildings are sturdier than houses. And it avoids hours in traffic, always with the chance that the storm may not hit.
But public safety officials say no place is safe in this city below sea level. Hoteliers can't possibly prepare for all the risks, including months of flooding and winds that get stronger as the floors get higher.
With more hotel rooms in the city than ever before, public safety officials worry that more people will choose "vertical evacuation" rather than leaving town.
These questions emerged last week at a hurricane symposium organized by and held at the Ritz-Carlton New Orleans hotel. The Ritz got worried during Ivan, its first major hurricane since it opened in 2000.
The staff discovered that it wasn't easy to move guests and shut down, but staying open carried many risks. The hotel ultimately housed guests that didn't leave, employees and their families, but refused new check-ins.
Char Schroeder, director of public relations for the hotel, said she decided to organize the local symposium after attending a similar regional meeting for Ritz-Carlton, which has nine hotels in Florida. It raised a lot of questions she thought New Orleans hadn't considered.
Hoteliers who attended the meeting say that they've got plenty of things to figure out before hurricane season, which begins Wednesday and kicks into high gear in August.
"I found it to be very eye-opening," said Amy Reimer, general manager of the International House hotel. "My list of things to do is long, if indeed we decide to stay open."
Even thinking about whether to close is revolutionary: the hotel industry here has always viewed sheltering people during storms as a community service.
"We're in the hospitality industry because we care about people. We don't want to turn people away," Reimer said. "During those times, it's not about the bottom line; it's about helping the community."
Hotels say they don't make money during storms: They charge moderate rates so they're not seen as price-gouging, but have to stock up on supplies and, with guests often three or four to a room, their employees put in lots of overtime.
But convincing people that they shouldn't try to stay in local hotels probably depends a great deal on whether the new plans for handling highway traffic get people out of harm's way faster than last year's plan did.
In the meantime, some hoteliers say they'll try to discourage storm reservations.
Reimer said one way might be going along with a suggestion made by public safety officials: ban alcohol sales during storms.
"That would probably lower our occupancy," she said.
Hoteliers, used to renting rooms for hurricanes, rethink
NEW ORLEANS (AP) — For a long time, many New Orleans residents have evacuated up rather than out for hurricanes, renting rooms in high-rise hotels.
After all, the steel-and-concrete buildings are sturdier than houses. And it avoids hours in traffic, always with the chance that the storm may not hit.
But public safety officials say no place is safe in this city below sea level. Hoteliers can't possibly prepare for all the risks, including months of flooding and winds that get stronger as the floors get higher.
With more hotel rooms in the city than ever before, public safety officials worry that more people will choose "vertical evacuation" rather than leaving town.
These questions emerged last week at a hurricane symposium organized by and held at the Ritz-Carlton New Orleans hotel. The Ritz got worried during Ivan, its first major hurricane since it opened in 2000.
The staff discovered that it wasn't easy to move guests and shut down, but staying open carried many risks. The hotel ultimately housed guests that didn't leave, employees and their families, but refused new check-ins.
Char Schroeder, director of public relations for the hotel, said she decided to organize the local symposium after attending a similar regional meeting for Ritz-Carlton, which has nine hotels in Florida. It raised a lot of questions she thought New Orleans hadn't considered.
Hoteliers who attended the meeting say that they've got plenty of things to figure out before hurricane season, which begins Wednesday and kicks into high gear in August.
"I found it to be very eye-opening," said Amy Reimer, general manager of the International House hotel. "My list of things to do is long, if indeed we decide to stay open."
Even thinking about whether to close is revolutionary: the hotel industry here has always viewed sheltering people during storms as a community service.
"We're in the hospitality industry because we care about people. We don't want to turn people away," Reimer said. "During those times, it's not about the bottom line; it's about helping the community."
Hotels say they don't make money during storms: They charge moderate rates so they're not seen as price-gouging, but have to stock up on supplies and, with guests often three or four to a room, their employees put in lots of overtime.
But convincing people that they shouldn't try to stay in local hotels probably depends a great deal on whether the new plans for handling highway traffic get people out of harm's way faster than last year's plan did.
In the meantime, some hoteliers say they'll try to discourage storm reservations.
Reimer said one way might be going along with a suggestion made by public safety officials: ban alcohol sales during storms.
"That would probably lower our occupancy," she said.
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This is an interesting topic and one that has been discussed earlier on the board and I can bring to the table an example of why evacuating to a hotel/motel rather then leaving the area or going to an approved civil defense shelter may not be a good idea. I know we have some other residents along the Mississippi Gulf Coast that can either substaintiate what I have to say or can clarify what I have to say if my memory of this is not correct. But during Hurricane Georges many residents who were in mandatory evacuation areas and tourists decided to ride it out in a local motel in Gulfport. Unfortunately during the height of the storm part of the roof of the motel broke off and many of the "guests" had to be evacuated and placed in a civil defense shelter. This of course was a harrowing experience for all. So it just goes to show you, although hotels or motels look safe because of their size and chances are they are structurally sound, anything can happen. In the event of a hurricane if you have the money for a hotel it is probably best spent on one in another city or location. I believe Hurricane Georges was a strong Cat 2 when it made landfall and the eye went over the town of Ocean Springs, MS which is about 15 miles to the East of Gulfport.
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cajungal wrote:I don't understand why they use the Superdome as a shelter. Because if a major hurricane hits the city, the people would be trapped for weeks with the rising water. But, I understand a lot of people don't have transportation to get out the city.
They only used the Dome once - during Georges. It was a shelter of last resort. Nagin wouldn't open it during Ivan because he felt it would be a trap if we did get a direct hit. I doubt it would ever be used again and what happened during Georges.
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- cajungal
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I still wonder what they will do what the people who have no transportation to get out the city. A lot of people in New Orleans don't own a car. And a lot are elderly or handicapped. And a lot of them are in such poverty that can't afford to leave the city. Because if anything 3 or above would hit New Orleans, no shelter or home would be safe because of the water. So, what would happen to those unfortunate people?
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It is too bad that the city of New Orleans doesnt have some kind of contingency plan for the less fortunate in the City. Perhaps they could use city buses to bus them to civil defense shelters in Baton Rouge or something like that. It seems like the local Civil Defense office would have something in place for those people who can not get out of the city in the case of a major hurricane like a Catagory 3 or higher. Does anyone have any information on this? It would be interesting to know how the City of New Orleans has prepared for it's less fortunate residents.
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cajungal wrote:I still wonder what they will do what the people who have no transportation to get out the city. A lot of people in New Orleans don't own a car. And a lot are elderly or handicapped. And a lot of them are in such poverty that can't afford to leave the city. Because if anything 3 or above would hit New Orleans, no shelter or home would be safe because of the water. So, what would happen to those unfortunate people?
I actually posted an article on this today on the "Hurricane Preparation" Forum. They are going to bus them out.
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Here is the article!
nola.com
PREPARING FOR THE WORST
Officials rework evacuation strategy
By Mark Schleifstein Staff writer
Tuesday, May 31, 2005
With the six-month hurricane season opening Wednesday, local emergency planners are fine-tuning evacuation plans, including changes to last year's rage-inducing scheme to use both sides of the interstate and a new effort to bus thousands of people without personal transportation out of New Orleans.
And with another busy season predicted, national hurricane experts say they will release more information this year, partly because they're hoping to encourage evacuation or precautions sooner, and partly because they'll have more data from a new automated reporting system throughout the Gulf of Mexico.
"I can't emphasize enough how concerned I am with southeast Louisiana because of its unique characteristics, its complex levee system," National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield said. "I know I've said this before, but the potential for a large loss of life from a hurricane is greater in southeast Louisiana than anywhere else on the Gulf Coast."
The local changes are meant to improve on a less-than-satisfactory evacuation response across the New Orleans area last year when a powerful Hurricane Ivan was bearing down on the city. It swerved and crashed ashore at the Alabama-Florida border, wiping away homes and condominiums and causing hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, some of which still hasn't been repaired.
In what ended up being a frustrating move last year for emergency planners and evacuees alike, drivers were allowed to use both sides of Interstate 10 to go west. But a number of glitches conspired to make the 90-mile drive to Baton Rouge take up to 10 hours. At times, Ivan was moving faster than traffic on the interstate.
Under this year's plan, the number of lanes on major traffic arteries out of the New Orleans area will increase from eight to 11. All lanes of Interstate 10 in East Jefferson will go westbound beginning at Clearview Parkway in Metairie, instead of at Loyola Drive in Kenner five miles farther west. Most westbound travel on Interstate 12 in St. Tammany Parish will be prohibited. To the north of I-12, all lanes of I-55 and I-59 will carry evacuees north into Mississippi.
In addition, state workers will restripe the northbound I-10 bridge from Irish Bayou to Slidell so evacuees will have three outbound lanes across Lake Pontchartrain.
Evacuees will need to plan ahead, because where they enter the interstate and which bridge they use will determine where they end up.
The plan calls for a four-phase evacuation beginning 50 hours before tropical storm-force winds are expected to hit the Louisiana coast. First out would be residents south of the Intracoastal Waterway, including residents of the Lower 9th Ward of New Orleans and the east bank of the Mississippi River in St. Bernard and Plaquemines parishes. At 40 hours, the West Bank would be evacuated. At 30 hours, contraflow restrictions will kick in and the east bank of New Orleans and East Jefferson would be urged to evacuate. Contraflow would end six hours before the storm makes landfall.
Maps showing the details of the contraflow plan should be issued by the state in June, officials said.
Busing planned
The busing evacuation plan is a work in progress. Details likely will remain murky until time to implement the plan, because officials don't want people heading to a particular place expecting a ride. Those without transportation need to be planning now how they'll get to safety, New Orleans Emergency Preparedness Director Joseph Matthews said.
"It's important to emphasize that we just don't have the resources to take everybody out," Matthews said.
He said the viability of the bus plan depends on whether Regional Transit Authority and New Orleans public school officials find enough volunteer drivers.
New Orleans is in an unusual situation, compared with neighboring parishes, because more than a quarter of its residents have no personal transportation. According to the most recent census data, about 134,000 out of the city's 480,000 people are without cars, said Shirley Laska, director of the University of New Orleans' Center for Hazards Assessment, Response & Technology.
If the buses are used, Matthews said those on board will have to be patient.
"Lets face it," he said. "In time of an emergency, if we wait until the new contraflow plan is put in effect to begin this plan, it will take anywhere from four to six hours to get people as far as Baton Rouge.
"And we have to arrange for things as simple as finding strategic points along the route for bathrooms and water, for security and medical personnel to accompany the convoy in case of medical needs."
Matthews said the plan is to take people from 10 pickup points throughout the city to one or more shelters north of Interstate 12.
City officials also are cooperating with the American Red Cross, Total Community Action and the University of New Orleans in developing a faith-based hurricane response system that includes a buddy system for evacuation.
Operation Brother's Keeper, financed with a grant from the Baptist Community Ministries, is aimed at assisting religious institutions in both preparing for a hurricane and in finding ways to pair with other religious institutions north of the lake to provide transportation and shelter.
There are four pilot churches this year, with a goal of providing assistance to about 2,000 residents.
Red Cross officials recommend that families put together emergency kits including personal financial information, flashlights, first-aid kits, medicines and other supplies, which can be used during evacuations or during other non-hurricane emergencies.
Stormy weather
The National Hurricane Center predicted this month there would be 12 to 15 tropical storms this season, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes and three to five becoming major hurricanes.
Mayfield, the Hurricane Center's director, said a new experimental forecasting product being rolled out by the center this year should help emergency preparedness officials in making decisions on evacuations.
The center will publish a map and a written statement with the probability of 35 mph, 58 mph and 75 mph or greater winds occuring in areas along a storm's forecast path.
"Emergency managers can take the product and go to their local officials and say there's a 20 percent probability of being hit by hurricane-force winds, and that might be enough to convince them to take action," Mayfield said.
Such products are usually tested for a year or two before being made a permanent part of the national hurricane forecasting array, he said.
Local National Weather Service forecast offices also will be issuing local inland hurricane statements and will place more emphasis on them, Mayfield said.
That effort is aimed at getting people in shoreline areas, such as along Florida's coast, to evacuate to the closest inland location available to avoid inland flooding, he said.
Hurricane researchers and emergency preparedness officials also could begin benefiting this year from a growing national and worldwide observing system, which includes buoys and other observation points in the Gulf of Mexico and along the coast.
Speaking at the American Geophysical Union's Joint Assembly last week, a gathering of four international earth and space science organizations, Landry Bernard of the National Data Buoy Center at Stennis Space Center said efforts are under way to create a $30 million-a-year observation program in the Gulf by 2011.
Information from the beginnings of that system already has helped researchers understand how a combination of storm surge and wind-driven waves damaged or destroyed stretches of Interstate 10 bridges over Alabama's Mobile Bay and Florida's Pensacola Bay during Hurricane Ivan last year.
Several decks were knocked off their piers by a surge of 12 feet combined with locally generated waves of 6 ½ feet to 10 feet, said Jim Chen, a researcher with the Coastal Transportation Engineering Research and Education Center at the University of South Alabama.
Such information is expected to be useful in designing improvements to bridges all along I-10 in the Gulf region, he said.
New data also will be available this year about the underwater effects of hurricanes that pass across offshore oil rigs, thanks to new Minerals Management Service rules.
The federal agency, which regulates oil production in federal waters, now requires each platform to measure underwater currents from a few feet below the surface to a rig's bottom, and to report it every 20 minutes to the buoy center at Stennis, said Don Conlee, who runs the collection program.
He said there already are 20 companies participating in the new database. The information will be available for a variety of users, including the National Hurricane Center, which could use it in hurricane prediction models.
. . . . . . .
Mark Schleifstein can be reached at mschleifstein@timespicayune.com or (504) 826-3327.
nola.com
PREPARING FOR THE WORST
Officials rework evacuation strategy
By Mark Schleifstein Staff writer
Tuesday, May 31, 2005
With the six-month hurricane season opening Wednesday, local emergency planners are fine-tuning evacuation plans, including changes to last year's rage-inducing scheme to use both sides of the interstate and a new effort to bus thousands of people without personal transportation out of New Orleans.
And with another busy season predicted, national hurricane experts say they will release more information this year, partly because they're hoping to encourage evacuation or precautions sooner, and partly because they'll have more data from a new automated reporting system throughout the Gulf of Mexico.
"I can't emphasize enough how concerned I am with southeast Louisiana because of its unique characteristics, its complex levee system," National Hurricane Center Director Max Mayfield said. "I know I've said this before, but the potential for a large loss of life from a hurricane is greater in southeast Louisiana than anywhere else on the Gulf Coast."
The local changes are meant to improve on a less-than-satisfactory evacuation response across the New Orleans area last year when a powerful Hurricane Ivan was bearing down on the city. It swerved and crashed ashore at the Alabama-Florida border, wiping away homes and condominiums and causing hundreds of millions of dollars in damage, some of which still hasn't been repaired.
In what ended up being a frustrating move last year for emergency planners and evacuees alike, drivers were allowed to use both sides of Interstate 10 to go west. But a number of glitches conspired to make the 90-mile drive to Baton Rouge take up to 10 hours. At times, Ivan was moving faster than traffic on the interstate.
Under this year's plan, the number of lanes on major traffic arteries out of the New Orleans area will increase from eight to 11. All lanes of Interstate 10 in East Jefferson will go westbound beginning at Clearview Parkway in Metairie, instead of at Loyola Drive in Kenner five miles farther west. Most westbound travel on Interstate 12 in St. Tammany Parish will be prohibited. To the north of I-12, all lanes of I-55 and I-59 will carry evacuees north into Mississippi.
In addition, state workers will restripe the northbound I-10 bridge from Irish Bayou to Slidell so evacuees will have three outbound lanes across Lake Pontchartrain.
Evacuees will need to plan ahead, because where they enter the interstate and which bridge they use will determine where they end up.
The plan calls for a four-phase evacuation beginning 50 hours before tropical storm-force winds are expected to hit the Louisiana coast. First out would be residents south of the Intracoastal Waterway, including residents of the Lower 9th Ward of New Orleans and the east bank of the Mississippi River in St. Bernard and Plaquemines parishes. At 40 hours, the West Bank would be evacuated. At 30 hours, contraflow restrictions will kick in and the east bank of New Orleans and East Jefferson would be urged to evacuate. Contraflow would end six hours before the storm makes landfall.
Maps showing the details of the contraflow plan should be issued by the state in June, officials said.
Busing planned
The busing evacuation plan is a work in progress. Details likely will remain murky until time to implement the plan, because officials don't want people heading to a particular place expecting a ride. Those without transportation need to be planning now how they'll get to safety, New Orleans Emergency Preparedness Director Joseph Matthews said.
"It's important to emphasize that we just don't have the resources to take everybody out," Matthews said.
He said the viability of the bus plan depends on whether Regional Transit Authority and New Orleans public school officials find enough volunteer drivers.
New Orleans is in an unusual situation, compared with neighboring parishes, because more than a quarter of its residents have no personal transportation. According to the most recent census data, about 134,000 out of the city's 480,000 people are without cars, said Shirley Laska, director of the University of New Orleans' Center for Hazards Assessment, Response & Technology.
If the buses are used, Matthews said those on board will have to be patient.
"Lets face it," he said. "In time of an emergency, if we wait until the new contraflow plan is put in effect to begin this plan, it will take anywhere from four to six hours to get people as far as Baton Rouge.
"And we have to arrange for things as simple as finding strategic points along the route for bathrooms and water, for security and medical personnel to accompany the convoy in case of medical needs."
Matthews said the plan is to take people from 10 pickup points throughout the city to one or more shelters north of Interstate 12.
City officials also are cooperating with the American Red Cross, Total Community Action and the University of New Orleans in developing a faith-based hurricane response system that includes a buddy system for evacuation.
Operation Brother's Keeper, financed with a grant from the Baptist Community Ministries, is aimed at assisting religious institutions in both preparing for a hurricane and in finding ways to pair with other religious institutions north of the lake to provide transportation and shelter.
There are four pilot churches this year, with a goal of providing assistance to about 2,000 residents.
Red Cross officials recommend that families put together emergency kits including personal financial information, flashlights, first-aid kits, medicines and other supplies, which can be used during evacuations or during other non-hurricane emergencies.
Stormy weather
The National Hurricane Center predicted this month there would be 12 to 15 tropical storms this season, with seven to nine becoming hurricanes and three to five becoming major hurricanes.
Mayfield, the Hurricane Center's director, said a new experimental forecasting product being rolled out by the center this year should help emergency preparedness officials in making decisions on evacuations.
The center will publish a map and a written statement with the probability of 35 mph, 58 mph and 75 mph or greater winds occuring in areas along a storm's forecast path.
"Emergency managers can take the product and go to their local officials and say there's a 20 percent probability of being hit by hurricane-force winds, and that might be enough to convince them to take action," Mayfield said.
Such products are usually tested for a year or two before being made a permanent part of the national hurricane forecasting array, he said.
Local National Weather Service forecast offices also will be issuing local inland hurricane statements and will place more emphasis on them, Mayfield said.
That effort is aimed at getting people in shoreline areas, such as along Florida's coast, to evacuate to the closest inland location available to avoid inland flooding, he said.
Hurricane researchers and emergency preparedness officials also could begin benefiting this year from a growing national and worldwide observing system, which includes buoys and other observation points in the Gulf of Mexico and along the coast.
Speaking at the American Geophysical Union's Joint Assembly last week, a gathering of four international earth and space science organizations, Landry Bernard of the National Data Buoy Center at Stennis Space Center said efforts are under way to create a $30 million-a-year observation program in the Gulf by 2011.
Information from the beginnings of that system already has helped researchers understand how a combination of storm surge and wind-driven waves damaged or destroyed stretches of Interstate 10 bridges over Alabama's Mobile Bay and Florida's Pensacola Bay during Hurricane Ivan last year.
Several decks were knocked off their piers by a surge of 12 feet combined with locally generated waves of 6 ½ feet to 10 feet, said Jim Chen, a researcher with the Coastal Transportation Engineering Research and Education Center at the University of South Alabama.
Such information is expected to be useful in designing improvements to bridges all along I-10 in the Gulf region, he said.
New data also will be available this year about the underwater effects of hurricanes that pass across offshore oil rigs, thanks to new Minerals Management Service rules.
The federal agency, which regulates oil production in federal waters, now requires each platform to measure underwater currents from a few feet below the surface to a rig's bottom, and to report it every 20 minutes to the buoy center at Stennis, said Don Conlee, who runs the collection program.
He said there already are 20 companies participating in the new database. The information will be available for a variety of users, including the National Hurricane Center, which could use it in hurricane prediction models.
. . . . . . .
Mark Schleifstein can be reached at mschleifstein@timespicayune.com or (504) 826-3327.
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- LSU2001
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Another reason they hesitate to use the superdome is because of the damage that occured after the evac for georges. there was a lot of destruction inside the dome from the people housed there. There was graffiti, destroyed furniture, broken TV sets. and when the people were let out of the dome many carried off furniture, tv sets, vcrs, etc. Even though there was very little in the way of stormy weather the evacuees trashed the dome.
However, during the Ivan Evac. the dome was used as a shelter for handicapped or ill people. From what I understand that was a pretty bad scene as well with people having to drop their loved ones off and only one family member could stay to care for the handicapped or Ill person. There was an article posted the other day about this situation.
Tim
However, during the Ivan Evac. the dome was used as a shelter for handicapped or ill people. From what I understand that was a pretty bad scene as well with people having to drop their loved ones off and only one family member could stay to care for the handicapped or Ill person. There was an article posted the other day about this situation.
Tim
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Your exactly right, Isu2001. A lot of those "less fortunate" turned around and ripped the city off by vandalizing and looting the dome which was offered as a shelter. It won't be offered again.
Also, folks, a suggestion if I may...I know it's tempting to evacuate to Baton Rouge...I am sure a lot of you have family there, and there are lot's of great LSU memories, friends, etc there., but DON'T forget the traffic problem. Everyone goes west. Go North. Go to Jackson or even further. That way the drive will be easier, and you won't get stuck on I-10 like folks did last year.
I live in Picayune now, and there was VERY little increased traffic on I-59 last year. They didn't even open up the contra-flow lanes although it is set up to do so to Hattiesburg. They never needed to because nobody went that way.
Also, folks, a suggestion if I may...I know it's tempting to evacuate to Baton Rouge...I am sure a lot of you have family there, and there are lot's of great LSU memories, friends, etc there., but DON'T forget the traffic problem. Everyone goes west. Go North. Go to Jackson or even further. That way the drive will be easier, and you won't get stuck on I-10 like folks did last year.
I live in Picayune now, and there was VERY little increased traffic on I-59 last year. They didn't even open up the contra-flow lanes although it is set up to do so to Hattiesburg. They never needed to because nobody went that way.
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- cajungal
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patsmsg wrote:Your exactly right, Isu2001. A lot of those "less fortunate" turned around and ripped the city off by vandalizing and looting the dome which was offered as a shelter. It won't be offered again.
Also, folks, a suggestion if I may...I know it's tempting to evacuate to Baton Rouge...I am sure a lot of you have family there, and there are lot's of great LSU memories, friends, etc there., but DON'T forget the traffic problem. Everyone goes west. Go North. Go to Jackson or even further. That way the drive will be easier, and you won't get stuck on I-10 like folks did last year.
I live in Picayune now, and there was VERY little increased traffic on I-59 last year. They didn't even open up the contra-flow lanes although it is set up to do so to Hattiesburg. They never needed to because nobody went that way.
My grandmother lives near you! In Kiln, MS. No use evacuating there. Because the storm will probably follow us. And she is probably the same distance to the coast as we are.
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- cajungal
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southerngale wrote:There was a very long thread about the "Big One" hitting New Orleans back in July, maybe early August. I'm not sure I could stomach reading that one again. The people from the New Orleans area were dead on.
I had a gut feeling that New Orleans would have the big one this year. I could not shake the feeling off. Had dreams over and over of a violent hurricane hitting. Predicted "major hurricane" between the 13th anniversary of Andrew and 40th anniversary of Betsy, hitting somewhere near New Orleans. Katrina hit on Aug 29th. So, I was not very far off at all. Picked landfall of Katrina 24 hours out. Buras, LA at 145 mph. Sadly, hit it on the nail.
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