Experts:Major Hurricane Likely To Hit US in 2005

[canegrl04]

The link to the story is in the Yahoo "news section on the right

http://www.yahoo.com

[HurryKane]

Here's the direct link:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050531/us_ ... ricanes_dc


It's basically a rehash of Gray's forecast.

[Brent]

With 3 last year... kinda obvious.

[StormChasr]

No, I don't think it is "kind of obviious." if you read Dr. Gray's report, he indicates that 2004 was a low probability event (what I've been saying all along). Once again, it doesn't matter how many hurricanes there are, 1995 had the most number of named storms, but NO major landfalls. 1992 had 4, but spawned Andrew. So, once again (for the 70th time), it is IMPOSSIBLE to predict, forecast, or do anything more than guess as to landfall probability.

[HurricaneBill]

No, I don't think it is "kind of obviious." if you read Dr. Gray's report, he indicates that 2004 was a low probability event (what I've been saying all along). Once again, it doesn't matter how many hurricanes there are, 1995 had the most number of named storms, but NO major landfalls.

Umm.......Opal?

[StormChasr]

Umm.......Opal?

Very marginal 3--probably more like a 2 in actuality.

[AussieMark]

I thought Opal came in with 120 mph winds

[Josephine96]

I thought Opal's winds were even higher than 120

[StormChasr]

On 3 and 4 October, the hurricane turned toward the north- northeast to northeast and gradually accelerated. During this period, the water temperature beneath the hurricane's circulation was near 28 to 29C, and a large upper-level anticyclone was well established over the Gulf of Mexico. Rapid intensification occurred not only as a result of these favorable environmental conditions on the large scale but, and perhaps more importantly, due to significant changes on a smaller scale within the hurricane's inner core. Opal intensified into a category four hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale early on 4 October at which time reconnaissance aircraft reported a small, 10 n mi diameter eye. The minimum central pressure of 916 mb, with maximum sustained surface winds estimated at 130 knots, occurred when the hurricane was centered about 250 n mi south-southwest of Pensacola, Florida near 1000 UTC 4 October. The peak intensity appears to have occurred near the end of an eyewall contraction cycle. Soon thereafter, the small inner eyewall diminished as an outer eyewall became more dominant. The hurricane weakened during this process, but was still a marginal Category 3 hurricane as the center made landfall at Pensacola Beach, Florida near 2200 UTC 4 October. The collapse of the inner eyewall, reduced sea surface temperatures along the Gulf coast and increased upper-level westerlies likely contributed to the weakening.

From TPC's Report on Opal.

[AussieMark]

u are right

115 mph. I think it was Fran that came in at 120 mph. I get those 2 mixed up sometimes on what came in stronger.

[SouthernWx]

I thought Opal came in with 120 mph winds

It did....flight level winds at time of landfall were 115-120 kt. When HURDAT re-evaluates Opal sometime in the near future, I feel confident max sustained at landfall will be increased to 120 mph.

Also, based on flight level winds and satellite presentation, I feel confident that at it's peak (916 mb), Opal was a borderline cat-4/5....with max sustained winds of 155-160 mph (based on 152 kt at 700 mb).

PW

SouthernWx's Hurricane 2005
http://community-2.webtv.net/SouthernWx61/Hurricane05

[StormChasr]

I feel confident that at it's peak (916 mb), Opal was a borderline cat-4/5....with max sustained winds of 155-160 mph (based on 152 kt at 700 mb).

ON landfall? I believe Opal was losing steam, just like Ivan, and barely held together as a 3.

[Anonymous]

No, near her peak in the Gulf.

[Brent]

I feel confident that at it's peak (916 mb), Opal was a borderline cat-4/5....with max sustained winds of 155-160 mph (based on 152 kt at 700 mb).

ON landfall? I believe Opal was losing steam, just like Ivan, and barely held together as a 3.

No... that was the peak intensity about 12-18 hours before landfall. I remember it well. It EXPLODED overnight. People through the Southeast were scared like they've never been because it was moving at over 20 mph... meaning the hurricane force winds would go WELL inland. It ended up making landfall as a Marginal 3(115-120 mph) on the eastern end of Pensacola Beach about 3-4pm in the afternoon. It was a hurricane until it was about 200 miles inland. If it had come in as it's peak intensity or close to it it would have gone even farther inland.

[SouthernWx]

I feel confident that at it's peak (916 mb), Opal was a borderline cat-4/5....with max sustained winds of 155-160 mph (based on 152 kt at 700 mb).

ON landfall? I believe Opal was losing steam, just like Ivan, and barely held together as a 3.

Friend, please READ WHAT I SAID....at PEAK INTENSITY in the GULF (916 mb), Opal was IMO likely borderline cat-5....based on flight level winds of 152 kt (175 mph).

At landfall near Pensacola Beach, Opal was a weakening cat-3 with sustained winds near 120 mph....BASED ON flight level winds, Nexrad velocity data, and my post storm survey.

Please understand something friend....I am a hurricane and severe storm expert; not some punk kid. I've spent over three decades researching tropical cyclones and their impact, and have likely forgotten more about hurricanes than most will ever know.

If you disbelieve, ask the folks here such as cycloneye and vbhoutex who've known me since 2000 at GoPBI....I'm not a pretender friend, I'm the real deal.

PW