Cape Verde Season Awaits, Are You Ready?

[HURAKAN]

SEA-SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES ANALYSIS:


SEA-SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES:


The 2005 hurricane season is just a few hours away from its beginning and we already know what it's expected, another season full of anxiety and unexpected sucesses. Every year we not only look to Africa to see the next wave that would have the opportunity to become in a cyclone, but also when a cyclone develops in the far Eastern Atlantic we know it would be interesting to see if it becomes a fish or not, and usually these are the most fierce and strongest systems during the season. I find interesting to see that the waters from 10N to 20N and near Africa are 3 degress above average, this is incredible. Worth to report, in most of the Atlantic waters are from average to 3 degress above averag, except for the waters near the middle eastern seaboard that are below average. Thereafter, we just need the ITCZ to be near or above 10 degrees north and the shear to calm down.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This temperature anomaly is part of the reason that I think this season could come close to 1995 in intensity. The Tropical and Subtropical Atlantic is already boiling, scary


Hybridstorm_November2001

[StormChasr]

South of Cuba--you are correct. North of that---I beg to differ. Warm, but nothing unusual.

[Anonymous]

South of Cuba--you are correct. North of that---I beg to differ. Warm, but nothing unusual.

?? ???
85* F degrees off of Ft. Myers, 82* F off the coast of Louisiana. If I may ask, but what makes you think things will be so quiet for the US? All factors look like a season very much like 2004. The ridge may be a little bit more east than last season, but it will build somewhere, and with the waters so favorable and the active ITCZ from July to October, The Eastern Coast and the Gulf will be in for alot of activity. If I may ask...you tend to be on the lesser side of things always when it comes to Hurricanes. You say 10% chance of hurricane winds in Miami...more like 59%. You say 6% for New Orleans...more like 44%. Do you enjoy tracking storms because you seem to think 2005 will be quiet, when, in contrast my friend, it looks to be one of the most active seasons, potentially...ever.

[AussieMark]

u think net activity could be like 1995

[Anonymous]

Yes... if we had 16 named storms in 2003, and 15 named storms in 2004, and we have near the highest SST's ever...2005 could have 17-19 named storms.

[x-y-no]

South of Cuba--you are correct. North of that---I beg to differ. Warm, but nothing unusual.

Not yet extremely warm around Florida, no. But remember, two weeks ago the water around Florida was 2 degrees below normal, now it's normal to slightly warm. I doubt we're finished with this trend.

Jan

[AussieMark]

Yes... if we had 16 named storms in 2003, and 15 named storms in 2004, and we have near the highest SST's ever...2005 could have 17-19 named storms.

starting with 1998 only 2 seasons have produced less than 14 storms

1999: 12
2002: 12

so I think we may see a lot of named storms again this year

[LSU2001]

Station SPLL1 - South Timbalier Block 52, LA / CSI06
Station SPLL1

Owned and maintained by Coastal Studies Institute, Louisiana State University
Shorebased Tower
28.87 N 90.48 W (28°52'00" N 90°29'00" W)

Site elevation: sea level
Anemometer height: 40.4 m above site elevation


Conditions at SPLL1 as of
(9:00 pm CDT on 05/31/2005)
0200 GMT on 06/01/2005:

Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 280 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 12.0 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 2.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.73 in
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.8 °F
Visibility (VIS): 7.5 mi
Tide (above MLLW) (TIDE): 1.47 ft



A water temp of almost 83 degrees On May 31 is quite rare off the coast of La. The normal for this time of year is 77 this is almost 6 degrees above normal.
Tim

[cyclonaut]

South of Cuba--you are correct. North of that---I beg to differ. Warm, but nothing unusual.

Not yet extremely warm around Florida, no. But remember, two weeks ago the water around Florida was 2 degrees below normal, now it's normal to slightly warm. I doubt we're finished with this trend.

Jan

Yep thats what I was about to post.Just a few weeks ago some were up in arms over the below normal SSTs there & quickly they have become normal to slightly above & people still doubt.