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Predicting development more than a few days out is extremely chancy stuff - but, with that said ...
I've been watching the time around the end of the second week of June (originally I was looking at June 9-13, now a little later at June 11-14) and it continues to look favorable for development in the western Caribbean - lots of moisture, warm unstable air over very warm water, relaxed upper air conditions, low surface pressure.
None of the GFS model runs indicate any significant development, but this far out the surprise would be if they did - the models are generally not too good at that. But a majority of the runs do put a low with a fair amount of associated precipitation in that area. If something were to develop, I would expect it to move generally northward, since all the runs have a weakness there with moist southerly flow up into the southeastern states.
For what it's worth, one corroborating factor (maybe) ... it's been a year and a half or more since I last read Joe B. at Slaccuweather, but I recall he used to go on and on about teleconnections between tropical devolopment in the west Pacific and in the Atlantic, with a lag time of 10-14 days. And it just so happens that we have a nice looking tropical storm in the wpac right now.
So there you have it, my first wild prediction of the season - a possible TD in the western Carib. sometime around June 11-14.
Don't beat me too severely when (if) this busts.
Jan
