Pacific Northwest Weather

[TT-SEA]

Looking at the new ETA run...

My predicted high for Saturday at Sea-Tac is 73 degrees.

[snow_wizzard]

That is true...I am still thinking of the previous runs. I still like the combo of cyclonic northerly flow aloft and strong onshore flow though. You could be right about Saturday. You have sure been quiet about the wild and wooley low next week!

[TT-SEA]

That is because it MAY drop south off the coast and leave us in warm southerly flow longer... before cutting in to our south.

It needs to come right over us.

And I am VERY sure that the GFS is overstating the case. It had a MUCH deeper low for tomorrow a few days ago.

[snow_wizzard]

The thing is though...the ECMWF and the GFS both show it right on top of us for at least three days. It could be a lot of fun!

[TT-SEA]

Actually the latest GFS shows it dropping west of us at its peak.

Then it weakens and fills as it moves inland. The real action will be in southern Oregon.

The 00Z run of the GFS shows just a little rain from Monday through Wednesday of next week.

For us to be slammed it needs to go into Vancouver Island at its peak.

GFS precipitation early next week when the upper low is closest to us...

[TT-SEA]

Gotta love the convergence zone.

We received .84 this evening... we were only at .05 when I got home at 5 p.m.

That is refreshing after the hot, dry weather last week.

The bulk of this system has headed east now... each day will be better through the rest of this work week.

[snow_wizzard]

There is no way a closed low can be right over us, which both models are showing, and have the rainfall be so light...impossible. You know as well as I do we are in a high precipitation regime right now. I have no reason to doubt that very wet conditions will continue for much of June.

The GFS is running away with the idea of a well established trough in the West, ridge in the East regime for the 10 - 15 day period. If we can stay away from a freak warm spell late in June, we should have a good chance of the month averaging below normal for temps. I do admit it is going to be a battle though. This year 5 warm days can completley offset a good cool period.

I am betting you are not ready to bet the farm we will not get drenched next week. The GFS is often light with the precip in some cases. Closed lows are the hardest thing in the world to predict!

[snow_wizzard]

In fact...I am ready to bet that Seattle will have its entire June normal precip by mid month. Easily!

I think you are missing how unseasonably deep these lows are going to be. Even according to the Euro.

[TT-SEA]

Right now... I will say there is a chance of more rain than the GFS shows but it does not look overly cold or wet.

And the month of May was predominantly warm. Many more days above normal than below.

The heat wave did not ruin a solid month of cold weather.

[snow_wizzard]

I was refering to April. The patterns look really good for below normal temps. We did not have a well established negative PNA in May. According to past history the long periods of below normal temps should begin anywhere between now and August. I think this warmth has about run its course. I just wonder how some pople would have explained the extreme warmth in 1940 - 42. Obviously it got cold after that, so long periods of warm weather mean nothing. Figuring out when your going to break out of it is the trick! We had good periods of below normal temps a few years ago so this is nothing more than the early 40s warm period. It is coming!

[TT-SEA]

You sound just like the people they were making fun of in the article!!

Referring to current cold snaps or past warmth as a reason to discount overwhelming evidence of global warming.

The fact is... it is much harder to get really cold now. That will not change. We will have periods of cold weather but overall our climate is warming up.

[TT-SEA]

New ECMWF has the low over us by Monday... but not tight and wound up.

Its open and weak-looking.

That will not do the trick for very cold weather or heavy rain.

[andycottle]

May 2005 weather stats for Woodinville, Wa...

Avg. High Temp: 66
Avg. Low Temp: 49
Warmest High temp: 89 (27th)
Coldest Low Temp: 43 (1st)
Days with measureable precip: 13
Monthly precip: 3.55"
Total precip this year so far: 13.81"

-- Andy

[snow_wizzard]

Ahhh Haaa! The NWS is talking about a sliding C Zone tomorrow, just as I expected. If the zone gets hung up over King County we could see some really low high temps in places. If the sun does manage to peak out, it will do nothing more than fire up some storms. No matter what we win!

TT...I think a lot of your last two posts will be proven wrong. Obviously, we will not know for a long time on the long range prospects for cold. I think you are placing way too much credence in global warming. It can change SOOOO fast! In fact, with all of the indexes recently going negative on the running averages, I think you are taking a huge chance on saying it will stay warm. I know an expert who thinks the PDO may actually be more led to go negative by the weather than the other way around. It just amazes me that you think it so impossible for it to get severely cold for long periods anymore. Other parts of the country have
managed to get cold weather equal to the olden days in recent years, it is just the west that has been so outstandingly warm. I have a map that shows Maine has been colder for the last 30 years than it was during the previous 30. Historically speaking, the cold is about to return to the west. The cycles run about 30 years. The odds are in my favor. As for the low next week. Even the ECMWF is showing 850mb temps of 0 with weak circulation. That is a guarantee for thunderstorms. That is not a weak low for June! The models are grossly underdoing the precip for next week...

To Clarify...When I say the west, I am refering to west of the Mississippi. It is interesting to note that the past 4 or 5 years have been close to the 100 year normal in some parts of the East. If we were to simply drop to our 100 year normal, we would see far colder and snowier winters. One thing that is very apparent is that the North Central and NW part of the country has FAR more variability than the east. During our cold phase they were pretty close to their long term normal, and during our warm phase they have been close to the long term normal. I find that fact VERY INTERESTING!

[TT-SEA]

The C-Zone is not going to sit in one place tomorrow.

There will be sun... then a band of rain... and then more sun by evening.

It will not be cold at Sea-Tac tomorrow. Below normal... but not cold. Probably above 60 degrees.

Its a joke to look at the 500mb maps and think otherwise.

I will be proven wrong??? Global warming will be proven wrong??? Come on... even you do not believe that.

[TT-SEA]

The Seattle NWS is not very excited about the storm for the end of the coming weekend...

THE NEXT TROUGH UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA SAT. MODEL SOLUTIONS PREVIOUSLY SHOWED A DECENT FRONT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE... WITH PCPN SPREADING INTO WRN WA AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS LOOK MUCH WEAKER THOUGH...WITH MOST OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH. WE MAY END UP SEEING LITTLE IF ANY PCPN OVER WRN WA DURING THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY DIG SOUTHEAST JUST TO OUR WEST...REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST PERIODS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[andycottle]

Hi all. With us having a few showers this morning and then cloudy skies afterward, which that is our current weather...cloudy and 57....I`m not so sure I am going to see any T-Storms this afternoon. Need some really good sunbreaks to further destableize the airmass if we are going to see any action today.

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

62 degrees at Sea-Tac right now with some strong June sun.

Hate to say it... but I told you so!!

[Guest]

Hey All I hope you let me back this time

[Guest]

TT SEA... When the NWS gets excited about a storm, the storm sucks... When they are dissapointed with it, it most likely will exceed their expectations.