Typhoon Nesat (04W)
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148503
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
WTPN31 PGTW 011500
1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z4 --- NEAR 10.8N9 140.0E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N9 140.0E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z2 --- 11.2N4 137.1E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 12.0N3 134.7E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 13.2N6 132.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 14.8N3 131.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z7 --- 17.3N1 130.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z8 --- 20.0N2 131.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z9 --- 23.5N0 132.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
011500Z7 POSITION NEAR 10.9N0 139.3E6.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z4 IS 19 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z4, 020300Z5, 020900Z1 AND 021500Z8.
//
BT
#0001
It is now a typhoon with 65kts.
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148503
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Well at least we have something to track while we wait for the Atlantic to pop up something even if it is located at the other side of the world and this typhoon will be a powerful one so it will be interesting.
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Jun 01, 2005 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
BULLETIN
TYPHOON NESAT (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
200 AM GUAM LST THU JUN 2 2005
...TYPHOON NESAT MOVING WESTWARD...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR FAIS...
ULITHI AND YAP SINCE THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON
NESAT WILL STAY NORTH OF THESE ISLANDS.
AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 139.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI
83 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF FAIS
152 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP AND
375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE
EXTEND OUT TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 80
MILES NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TYPHOON NESAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 139.9 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 75 MPH.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
8 AM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED.
GETTING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED!
TYPHOON NESAT (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
200 AM GUAM LST THU JUN 2 2005
...TYPHOON NESAT MOVING WESTWARD...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR FAIS...
ULITHI AND YAP SINCE THE STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON
NESAT WILL STAY NORTH OF THESE ISLANDS.
AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 139.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 65 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ULITHI
83 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF FAIS
152 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP AND
375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO
TURN NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 MPH. DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE
EXTEND OUT TO 50 MILES SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 80
MILES NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. TYPHOON NESAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...10.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 139.9 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 75 MPH.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
8 AM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED.
GETTING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED!
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 148503
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WARNING
WTPN31 PGTW 012100
1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 10.9N0 139.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N0 139.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 11.3N5 137.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 12.2N5 134.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 13.4N8 132.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 14.7N2 131.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 17.2N0 130.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.7N7 131.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 22.5N9 133.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.0N2 38.9E1. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDI
TIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5, 020900Z1, 021500Z8 AND 022100Z5
It is now forecast to become a Supertyphoon.
WTPN31 PGTW 012100
1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z0 --- NEAR 10.9N0 139.5E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N0 139.5E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z8 --- 11.3N5 137.0E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z1 --- 12.2N5 134.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z9 --- 13.4N8 132.8E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z2 --- 14.7N2 131.4E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z3 --- 17.2N0 130.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z4 --- 19.7N7 131.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z5 --- 22.5N9 133.2E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
012100Z4 POSITION NEAR 11.0N2 38.9E1. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 011800Z0 IS 25 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 PHNC FOR ADDI
TIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 020300Z5, 020900Z1, 021500Z8 AND 022100Z5
It is now forecast to become a Supertyphoon.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPQ31 PGUM 012158
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON NESAT ADVISORY NUMBER 11
8 AM GUAM LST THU JUN 2 2005
...TYPHOON NESAT PASSING NORTH OF YAP...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR YAP SINCE THE
STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON NESAT WILL STAY NORTH OF
THESE ISLANDS.
AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
120 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP
140 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS AND
430 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO
TURN WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS
A CATEGORY 2 TYPHOON ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE.
TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH.
REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...11.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 138.9 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
2 PM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED.
TCPPQ1
BULLETIN
TYPHOON NESAT ADVISORY NUMBER 11
8 AM GUAM LST THU JUN 2 2005
...TYPHOON NESAT PASSING NORTH OF YAP...
NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR YAP SINCE THE
STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH TYPHOON NESAT WILL STAY NORTH OF
THESE ISLANDS.
AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NESAT WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.0 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 90 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
120 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP
140 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS AND
430 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
TYPHOON NESAT IS MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH. TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO
TURN WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 105 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS
A CATEGORY 2 TYPHOON ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON TROPICAL CYCLONE SCALE.
TYPHOON NESAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS.
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES FROM THE CENTER
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES
...MAINLY TO THE NORTH.
REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...11.0 DEGREES NORTH AND 138.9 DEGREES
EAST...MOVING WEST AT 9 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 105 MPH.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT
2 PM GUAM LST OR SOONER IF NEEDED.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
The official bulletin has Nesat currently at 80 mph (1-min avg), although I would tend to agree that this may be a bit low.
WTPQ20 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0504 NESAT (0504)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 10.9N 139.1E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 190NM
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 12.2N 134.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 031800UTC 13.9N 131.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 041800UTC 16.8N 130.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 012100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0504 NESAT (0504)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 012100UTC 10.9N 139.1E GOOD
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 060KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 190NM
FORECAST
24HF 022100UTC 12.2N 134.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
45HF 031800UTC 13.9N 131.8E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 041800UTC 16.8N 130.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT =
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
The new official bulletin is out: 105 mph. (one-min avg)
WTPQ20 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 11.2N 138.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 12.5N 133.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 040000UTC 15.1N 131.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
72HF 050000UTC 17.5N 130.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT =
WTPQ20 RJTD 020000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0504 NESAT (0504) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 020000UTC 11.2N 138.5E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 030000UTC 12.5N 133.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
48HF 040000UTC 15.1N 131.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT
72HF 050000UTC 17.5N 130.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 095KT =
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WTPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 04W (NESAT) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z2 --- NEAR 11.2N4 138.5E7
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.2N4 138.5E7
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z5 --- 11.8N0 136.1E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z3 --- 12.8N1 133.9E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z6 --- 13.9N3 132.2E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z4 --- 14.8N3 131.0E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z5 --- 17.6N4 130.1E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z6 --- 22.1N5 132.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z7 --- 27.0N9 136.3E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
020300Z5 POSITION NEAR 11.4N6 137.9E0.
TYPHOON (TY) 04W (NESAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM NORTH-NORTH-
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A
SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ADDITIONALLY,
TY 04W HAS REDEVELOPED AN EYE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
020000Z2 IS 33 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 PHNC FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020900Z1, 021500Z8, 022100Z5 AND
030300Z6.//
Our baby is a full-grown typhoon!
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