FFC Discussion puts out somewhat of a Suprise!

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Wnghs2007
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FFC Discussion puts out somewhat of a Suprise!

#1 Postby Wnghs2007 » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:31 pm

http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/ga/discussion.html

FXUS62 KFFC 030204 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
945 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2005

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW...THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA THIS ENTIRE WEEK...LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN AL INTO TN. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL
GA...WITH A PERSISTENT COOL...WEDGE LIKE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE N-NE PART OF THE STATE. THIS FRONT HAS OSCILLATED BACK AND FORTH
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT HAS NEVER MADE IT MUCH FURTHER
NORTH THAN ATL. THE FRONT DRIFTED BACK TO THE SOUTH AGAIN THIS
EVENING TO NEAR CSG-MCN. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OVERNIGHT...THEN DRIFT NORTH IN EARNEST FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH. WE SHOULD FINALLY BE DONE WITH IT AT THAT
POINT. SUPPORT FOR SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY CERTAINLY LESS FRIDAY THAN WE
HAVE SEEN IN MANY DAYS. MID-LEVELS DRY OUT AND DEWPOINTS RISE AS
LOW-LEVEL RESIDUAL COOL AIR MASS OVER N GA IS FINALLY SCOURED OUT.
LOOKS LIKE THE AREA WILL FINALLY GET INTO A MORE SUMMERLIKE AIR
MASS...AND EVEN MORE SO ON SATURDAY WITH DEWPOINTS 70-72 AS FAR
NORTH AS ATL. IT WILL FEEL AWFULLY WARM AND STEAMY AFTER THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL...DAMP CONDITIONS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK...BUT ESPECIALLY THE SHORT TERM...OVERALL UPPER
SUPPORT IS WEAK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE FROM A SW U.S.
UPPER LOW TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH TRAILING TROUGHS AFFECTING
THE SE U.S. WITH A WARM...HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE...EXPECT AT A
MINIMUM DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EACH DAY. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...CLOSED UPPER RIDGE EVOLVES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC/NC
AREA...WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE HINT OF A
POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM POISED TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE SE U.S.
IT
SUFFICES TO SAY...THAT THE NEXT WEEK OR SO WILL OVERALL BE WET AND
HUMID WITH GOOD CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA MOST DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY RISE TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FRIDAY...AND SHOULD REMAIN
THERE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.


Interesting. 8-)
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#2 Postby yoda » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:40 pm

I doubt it. I just saw Storm Watch on the Weather Channel and nothing was spoken of it. It appears just to be a ULL...
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#3 Postby Wnghs2007 » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:40 pm

yoda wrote:I doubt it. I just saw Storm Watch on the Weather Channel and nothing was spoken of it. It appears just to be a ULL...


LOL...The weather Channel? I thought they changed there name to the Storm Stories Channel?
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#4 Postby yoda » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:43 pm

Isn't this only on the GFS? And we all know how reliable that is... :roll: :wink:
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#5 Postby kevin » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:43 pm

The good for soccer model?
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#6 Postby Wnghs2007 » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:46 pm

BTW...The GFS had a Resolution Change...It is much better now out to 180 hrs..

And Not only the GFS but the ECMWF shows a hint of it...
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#7 Postby Andrew92 » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:46 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:
yoda wrote:I doubt it. I just saw Storm Watch on the Weather Channel and nothing was spoken of it. It appears just to be a ULL...


LOL...The weather Channel? I thought they changed there name to the Storm Stories Channel?


:roflmao:
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#8 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:47 pm

:woo: :bday:
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#9 Postby dhweather » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:50 pm

I wouldn't get too excited just yet

A hint of a tropical system a week out is a bit of a stretch.
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#10 Postby yoda » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:52 pm

dhweather wrote:I wouldn't get too excited just yet

A hint of a tropical system a week out is a bit of a stretch.


Agree. I can't see anything forming this early... but we've been surprised before.
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#11 Postby Wnghs2007 » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:52 pm

dhweather wrote:I wouldn't get too excited just yet

A hint of a tropical system a week out is a bit of a stretch.


Yep, thats why I said it was a suprise. Im still really Iffy on the subject. But I usually dont see my WFO AFD's Go out on such a limb as to say that. They hardly ever do that. But I do edge caution because it is so far out.

Probally nothing will come out of it but its worth a look.
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#12 Postby Wnghs2007 » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:53 pm

Also, we need to wait and see if other models start to pick it up. And we have to look at the area now, because wind shear and dry air is pretty high there.
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#13 Postby yoda » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:55 pm

Wnghs2007 wrote:Also, we need to wait and see if other models start to pick it up. And we have to look at the area now, because wind shear and dry air is pretty high there.


Well, it may be a while if this is next week. If wind shear is high...and dry air is high... then development there cannot be.
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#14 Postby MWatkins » Thu Jun 02, 2005 11:56 pm

Yep...just looked at the 0Z GFS guidance from this evening...the model is insisting that a tropical looking system will spin up in the eastern Gulf and make it's way into the FL panhandle area within the next 50 hours or so.

Looks like the mid/upper system which extends from the NE tip of the Yucatan into the Gulf is the culprit...but it's hard to buy into a rapid development idea when we know the GFS has had problems with this sort of thing in the past.

Lots of rain for the Southeast...sure. Tropical development in the next 2.4 days...not so much.

MW
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#15 Postby Wnghs2007 » Fri Jun 03, 2005 12:00 am

MWatkins wrote:Yep...just looked at the 0Z GFS guidance from this evening...the model is insisting that a tropical looking system will spin up in the eastern Gulf and make it's way into the FL panhandle area within the next 50 hours or so.

Looks like the mid/upper system which extends from the NE tip of the Yucatan into the Gulf is the culprit...but it's hard to buy into a rapid development idea when we know the GFS has had problems with this sort of thing in the past.

Lots of rain for the Southeast...sure. Tropical development in the next 2.4 days...not so much.

MW


Agree on that point...I thought it was out in the 156 hour range...Sorry, I must of misread. LOL :lol:
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#16 Postby MWatkins » Fri Jun 03, 2005 12:05 am

Wnghs2007 wrote:
MWatkins wrote:Yep...just looked at the 0Z GFS guidance from this evening...the model is insisting that a tropical looking system will spin up in the eastern Gulf and make it's way into the FL panhandle area within the next 50 hours or so.

Looks like the mid/upper system which extends from the NE tip of the Yucatan into the Gulf is the culprit...but it's hard to buy into a rapid development idea when we know the GFS has had problems with this sort of thing in the past.

Lots of rain for the Southeast...sure. Tropical development in the next 2.4 days...not so much.

MW


Agree on that point...I thought it was out in the 156 hour range...Sorry, I must of misread. LOL :lol:


You probably didn't misread the model....I just didn't look that far out...but I would ventue to guess that if the GFS is spinning up phantom systems in 2 days it will probably be doing so in earnest in 6 or 7 days.

It will be VERY interesting to see how the new GFS model will deal with the warm SST's this season.

MW
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