11:30am TWO

[Brent]

I like this:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 3 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD ACROSS CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THIS
AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN/KNABB

Like oops... it shouldn't have developed this much.

[Derek Ortt]

that in no way means it will develop

do we have to microanalyse every single word that NHC sayd. That means about a 5% chance

[AussieMark]

upper level winds should prevent any development right


---Mark---

[Rainband]

Yes upper level winds are unfavorable and our local discussion says that no development will take place. Just lots of rain.

[Brent]

Yes upper level winds are unfavorable and our local discussion says that no development will take place. Just lots of rain.

I agree... it's just the way it was phrased. "Further" development to me means "More development has occurred that we expected"

[wxcrazytwo]

that in no way means it will develop

do we have to microanalyse every single word that NHC sayd. That means about a 5% chance

If they are going to put out for people to see, then yes. Anyways lost of rain here in Tampa..

[James]

I take it the same goes for the second paragraph which says that upper level winds are currently not favourable?

[Air Force Met]

that in no way means it will develop

do we have to microanalyse every single word that NHC sayd. That means about a 5% chance

Early season boredom Derek...be patient

[Kennethb]

Climatology so, the NHC is correct to be conservative.

However if there is more than a slim chance of something developing, the NHC is going to stay more conservative. Just the mention of possible development could send some of the hurricane ravaged-weary Floridians into a panic mode.

[hookemfins]

that in no way means it will develop

do we have to microanalyse every single word that NHC sayd. That means about a 5% chance

Derek, you know how some people are on here are. They hang on every word that the NHC says. They sit and over analyze every movement of a system looking for the slightest wobble, the faintest hint of an eye. Anything they can take and hyperventilate with.

[dhweather]

I think Brent is just pointing out a little difference in their verbage.

"AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..."

That implies it has developed some, which is not normal for the NHC
to do when there is nothing there. Especially when they've been
emphatic about an unfavorable environment.

[senorpepr]

Yes upper level winds are unfavorable and our local discussion says that no development will take place. Just lots of rain.

I agree... it's just the way it was phrased. "Further" development to me means "More development has occurred that we expected"

Further development, in this case means, any additional development to what little is already there. Nothing further is in that comment nor are there any hidden ideas.

[Brent]

I think Brent is just pointing out a little difference in their verbage.

"AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..."

That implies it has developed some, which is not normal for the NHC
to do when there is nothing there. Especially when they've been
emphatic about an unfavorable environment.

Exactly.

[dhweather]

Do I get a cookie?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will give you my option.

Yes there is alot of shear. But I think I see the first hint of a LLC at 85 west/20.1 north. The convection has oreganized. It is also moving slowly to the north.

Lets see if it can keep developing. My .02 cents.

[dhweather]

The ULL at about 25N85W is giving a S to N push to the convection
There are some clouds at the lower levels moving west/northwest,
making a bit of a crossing pattern. I see no signs of a LLC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The upper level shear is 15 to 20 knots. In it has went down slightly over the last 3 hours. The Gfs shows a development of a weak system. Which moves it into the area Ivan hit last year. Interesting.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The ULL at about 25N85W is giving a S to N push to the convection
There are some clouds at the lower levels moving west/northwest,
making a bit of a crossing pattern. I see no signs of a LLC.

There has been many a time I'v spotted a LLC in some one said that very thing. In a few hours later they found one. Maybe its a thuderstorm spin up. Which would make the it look like it.

[hurricanedude]

wow only 3 days in and already bickering!!!! cant wait till october...there will be a s2k massacre in here!

[Rainband]

wow only 3 days in and already bickering!!!! cant wait till october...there will be a s2k massacre in here!

Not with the Moderator staff we have, I assure you any problem will quickly be delt with.