Wish I had a nickel......

#1 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 6:41 pm

for every time the TPC/NHC says "ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR" --- and then we get a tropical depression that evolves into a TS and then...... Well, you get the picture.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #2 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 6:43 pm

Heck I wish I could get a dollar for every time they said that. I would be a rich man.

boca · #3 Postby **boca** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 6:44 pm

Hey dixie you could of retired by now. Lets count how many times they say it this year I say 25 to 50 times.

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 7:48 pm

Any1 know where all TWOs are archived? I'd like to look for that favorite line and see what percentage of systems wound up developing and was it slow as they advertise :wink:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #5 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:03 pm

Believe it or not, the percentage of waves that are advertized as "additional development...if any...should be slow to occur" that go on to become tropical depression are rather low.

Actually, if I had a nickle for everytime a blob of clouds is given a name here on the boards and then it turns out the blob goes "poof".......

Anonymous · #6 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:41 pm

senorpepr wrote:Actually, if I had a nickle for everytime a blob of clouds is given a name here on the boards and then it turns out the blob goes "poof".......

Website · #7 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:43 pm

senorpepr wrote:Actually, if I had a nickle for everytime a blob of clouds is given a name here on the boards and then it turns out the blob goes "poof".......

Exactly... 3 days into the season and we should already have, what, Arlene and Bret? :lol:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #8 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:50 pm

Brent wrote:
senorpepr wrote:Actually, if I had a nickle for everytime a blob of clouds is given a name here on the boards and then it turns out the blob goes "poof".......

Exactly... 3 days into the season and we should already have, what, Arlene and Bret?

I think we had Arlene, Bret, and possibly Cindy all before the season even began. These would be Dennis. (...and people say the NHC is liberal at naming storms.)

:faints:

Website · #9 Postby **Brent** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:53 pm

senorpepr wrote:
Brent wrote:
senorpepr wrote:Actually, if I had a nickle for everytime a blob of clouds is given a name here on the boards and then it turns out the blob goes "poof".......

Exactly... 3 days into the season and we should already have, what, Arlene and Bret?

I think we had Arlene, Bret, and possibly Cindy all before the season even began. These would be Dennis. (...and people say the NHC is liberal at naming storms.)

:faints:

Don't forget Emily out by the Windwards. :wink:

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #10 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 9:55 pm

Brent wrote:
senorpepr wrote:
Brent wrote:
senorpepr wrote:Actually, if I had a nickle for everytime a blob of clouds is given a name here on the boards and then it turns out the blob goes "poof".......

Exactly... 3 days into the season and we should already have, what, Arlene and Bret?

I think we had Arlene, Bret, and possibly Cindy all before the season even began. These would be Dennis. (...and people say the NHC is liberal at naming storms.)

:faints:

Don't forget Emily out by the Windwards.

Good call. Somewhere I had a count from last year. Not only "the board" smoked the standard list, I believe it was toward the bottom of the Greek Alphabet.

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 10:05 pm

Wow--Dr Gray maybe low :eek:

Way Low

NHC have any opennings?

#12 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 10:25 pm

Any chance of shear easing up in the Caribbean? Still looking rather dicey down there late tonight.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #13 Postby **senorpepr** » Fri Jun 03, 2005 10:30 pm

At best it looks like shear will remain constant -- possibly weakening very slightly. It will continue to be a large combatant against development.

#14 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 12:33 am

Thank you, Senorpepr. At 1:30 a.m. the convection seems to be fired up a bit and cutting off from the northbound train of moisture.

mobilebay · #15 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 12:57 am

senorpepr wrote:Believe it or not, the percentage of waves that are advertized as "additional development...if any...should be slow to occur" that go on to become tropical depression are rather low.

Actually, if I had a nickle for everytime a blob of clouds is given a name here on the boards and then it turns out the blob goes "poof".......

kevin · #16 Postby **kevin** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 1:04 am

Fallacy of positive occurance. You only remember the times it happens, because you forget the times it doesn't, I would guess... and this is only a guess... because you have a desire to see something form. Just a guess. :lol:

Who am I kidding. Yeah, thats it. But no worries, we will have at least 8 of these this season, so 40 cents at least! :wink:

mobilebay · #17 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 1:17 am

Yeh they seem to use the same lines over and over again. let me see if I can remember some of them.

1. "development is not anticipated at this time"
2. "development is unlikely"
3. ' development... if any... should be slow to occur."
4. " this system has the potential for some slow development over the next day or two."
5. " a tropical depression could form later today or tonight."
If anyone can think of any more please post.

Thunder44 · #18 Postby **Thunder44** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 4:45 am

I know we all excited about the tropics, but try to over analyze the TWO's or TWD's too much this season. If they see us doing that then they may decide to be more vague in their statements then they already are. Then we'll have less to analyze. They are just saying that there is really very little chance of this system developing into a TC.

mobilebay · #19 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 4:48 am

Thunder44 wrote:I know we all excited about the tropics, but try to over analyze the TWO's or TWD's too much this season. If they see us doing that then they may decide to be more vague in their statements then they already are. Then we'll have less to analyze. They are just saying that there is really very little chance of this system developing into a TC.

So you believe they actually read this board and care what we say?

#20 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Sat Jun 04, 2005 5:07 am

Thunder44 wrote:I know we all excited about the tropics, but try to over analyze the TWO's or TWD's too much this season. If they see us doing that then they may decide to be more vague in their statements then they already are. Then we'll have less to analyze...

:wink:

Wish I had a nickel......

Wish I had a nickel......

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