Early start to the Cape Verde season?

[cycloneye]

TD#2 formed on the 11th of June in 2003 but did not lasted very much.

[Thunder44]

I remember last year having many of these waves looking good coming off the coast of Africa, early in the season, but they just fall apart soon after.

[dhweather]

I remember last year having many of these waves looking good coming off the coast of Africa, early in the season, but they just fall apart soon after.

That's generally what happens every year, however, with the very warm
SST's across the Atlantic, we'll have to see if 2005 will be any different.

[Anonymous]

I just had an interesting discussion with Matt Carrier (WINDSPEED). He said that he would not be suprised to see a major hurricane in 4-6 weeks. (MID-LATE JULY). I concur.

[dhweather]

I'd have to agree that once we get one, it will be intense, and quickly.

There's plenty of fuel out there, begging to be spent.

[gatorcane]

A huge blob of convection is coming off of Africa right now and it is even farther north than the the wave that just exited...

[Derek Ortt]

too far north anytime of the year tobe of any concern.

The ones that make it all the way across are roughly at 10N when they emerge

[gatorcane]

pretty impressive wave though you have to admit

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS HELD ALONG 19W S OF 15N
NOW CURRENTLY W AT ABOUT 10 KT. EXTRAPOLATION AT ITS PREVIOUS
SPEED WOULD PUT THE WAVE AT ABOUT 19W/20W BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A CLEAR CIRCULATION CENTERED SW OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
10N17W. THE WAVE APPARENTLY HAS A COMPLEX STRUCTURE SINCE A MORE
AMPLIFIED SIGNATURE PASSED DAKAR EARLY ON 06/04. THE GFS DOES
SEEM TO LATCH ONTO THIS PATTERN QUITE WELL BY SHOWING AN
ELONGATED ZONE OF VORTICITY WITH TWO 700 MB VORT MAXES CENTERED
NEAR 11N16W AND 10N21W. THIS MODEL...AS WELL AS THE UKMET AND
ECMWF...THEN CONSOLIDATES THE VORTICITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS AND
ACCELERATES THE FEATURE ACROSS THE ATLC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE ITCZ.



A very interesting discussion about this wave from Berg at 8:05 PM discussion.At sat pics it does not look like too much in the way of convection but this wave is a well defined one and because of it's structure it has to be watched although for it to become a tropical cyclone it has a very slim chance but we dont lose anything about watching how this wave evolves to see if it poofs or does something else.

[Javlin]

Looks like some convection holding together at 13'N 63'W right now is that one of the GFS prog's for later.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html