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HurryKane
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#41 Postby HurryKane » Sun Jun 05, 2005 12:25 am

Radar wrote:The Federal Emergency Management Agency has identified five catastrophic events that would require a national response, Latham said. One of them is a major hurricane hitting New Orleans, which is below sea level.

Just out of curiousity can anyone take a guess at what the "other four" catastrophic events are that would require a national response? Here is my list:

1. Nuclear attack
2. Mt Rushmore Eruption
3. Weapon of Mass Destruction (small pox, anthrax, ebola, etc)
4. Massive Earthquake


I'll throw in: perhaps Yellowstone blowing up as a 'supervolcano' (that was one cool show on the Discovery Channel. The science program, not the goofy mockumentary afterwards). Or, a tidal wave hitting a US/North American coast--eastern coast if the western half of La Palma island (of the Canary Islands) falls into the Atlantic, western coast if there's a huge earthquake or landslide in or near Alaska and related fault lines.
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I'm always in the "grey" area. LOL

#42 Postby Jagno » Sun Jun 05, 2005 12:44 am

I am located exactly on the border of the Phase I & Phase II evacuation plan. I guess I have 10 hours to play with between the two. Actually our business is in Phase II but our home is most certainly going to be classified as Phase I. Amazingly our evacuation location is Pickering High School which is well out of town off of a highway under heavy construction so that might make for some interesting driving. This same discussion came up locally after the last evac and I was shocked to learn that where I'd actually evacuated to could have sustained 8' of standing water from the tidal wave had the storm stayed on course. Now I know and will have to make better arrangements.
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#43 Postby Radar » Sun Jun 05, 2005 12:50 am

Jagno from the sounds of it, if a Major hurricane is threatening I would prepare to leave the vacinity for a very long time. But I'm wondering why now New Orleans is getting this type of attention? It has always been below sea level, yet is seems just recently new awareness has be brought forward regarding Hurricanes. Has a new government study just been completed? I mean seriously 10 yrs ago there wasnt this much media attention over the potential devastation a major hurricane would have on South Louisiana was there? Or have I been living a sheltered life?
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#44 Postby Derek Ortt » Sun Jun 05, 2005 1:07 am

probably a major for NYC would also be included as the storm surge is rediculous there. If a cat 4 were to ever survive that far north, JFK airport would be under water by as much as 30 feet, according to estimates. That bay is perhaps the most storm surge prone area on the entire hurricane coast
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#45 Postby sunny » Sun Jun 05, 2005 6:37 am

HurryKane wrote:
Radar wrote:Thank you Hurry for clarifying the numbers I guess it got alittle carried away didnt it. If you look at my original post I just said thousands and thousands and then somehow it turned into 500,000 and then at one point someone said we could be looking at upwards of 1.2 million. It is funny to see how innocently and easily things can be misconstrued. I guess we really wont know the whole the truth until the event actually happens (God forbid it ever does).


Happy Forecasting!


No sweat. After I finally read the Sun Herald article, I had to laugh at how quickly the number grew. In fact at first I wasn't sure I had the right article since I couldn't find mention of the 5 bazillion evacuees . ;)


I have to admit, this is the first I am hearing of this plan. I have family in other parts of the country, so IF the worst should happen, I have options.
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#46 Postby skysummit » Sun Jun 05, 2005 8:21 am

Radar wrote:But I'm wondering why now New Orleans is getting this type of attention? It has always been below sea level, yet is seems just recently new awareness has be brought forward regarding Hurricanes. Has a new government study just been completed? I mean seriously 10 yrs ago there wasnt this much media attention over the potential devastation a major hurricane would have on South Louisiana was there? Or have I been living a sheltered life?


Probably because of the fact that south La. is constantly sinking. What was above sea level 10 years ago is either at or below sea level for a lot of the land. Compare now to Andrew in '92. Where I'm living today, I'm 20 miles closer to the gulf than this exact spot was for Andrew. I read (or heard) somewhere that SE La. loses 20 - 30 square miles of land every year. 10 years ago, Plaquemines Parish was above sea level, today, it's pretty much all below.

A cat 4 or 5 storm hitting New Orleans today would be catastrophic compared to 10 years ago.....then, next year and the years after it will just get worse.
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#47 Postby skysummit » Sun Jun 05, 2005 8:24 am

boca_chris wrote:
Storms spin through and dump heavy rain when the sun never even blinks in New Orleans. Outside the hurricane protection levee, the sea presses so close that a stiff wind can push tidal swells over roads and into houses


I would say that this article is a *bit* embellished and overdone...just by reading some of the opening sentences. I would take the opinions in this article with a grain of salt. :roll:


Nah...it's pretty much right on target. Almost every afternoon along the coast, tropical downpours form when NOLA doesn't get a 10th of an inch. The hurricane protection levee is something of an engineering marvel. If you're outside, you're out of luck. Down in south Lafourche Parish, a good 20 - 30 mph wind can easily push swells onto the road and into homes. It's just part of life down here.....definately not a "grain of salt" type report.
Last edited by skysummit on Sun Jun 05, 2005 8:28 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#48 Postby sunny » Sun Jun 05, 2005 8:26 am

skysummit wrote:
boca_chris wrote:
Storms spin through and dump heavy rain when the sun never even blinks in New Orleans. Outside the hurricane protection levee, the sea presses so close that a stiff wind can push tidal swells over roads and into houses


I would say that this article is a *bit* embellished and overdone...just by reading some of the opening sentences. I would take the opinions in this article with a grain of salt. :roll:


Nah...it's pretty much right on target. Almost every afternoon along the coast, tropical downpours form when NOLA doesn't get a 10th of inch. The hurricane protection levee is something an engineering marvel. If you're outside, you're out of luck. Down in south Lafourche Parish, a good 20 - 30 mph wind can easily push swells onto the road and into homes. It's just part of life down here.....definately not a "grain of salt" type report.


You are right on target, skysummit.
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#49 Postby skysummit » Sun Jun 05, 2005 8:29 am

sunny wrote:
skysummit wrote:
boca_chris wrote:
Storms spin through and dump heavy rain when the sun never even blinks in New Orleans. Outside the hurricane protection levee, the sea presses so close that a stiff wind can push tidal swells over roads and into houses


I would say that this article is a *bit* embellished and overdone...just by reading some of the opening sentences. I would take the opinions in this article with a grain of salt. :roll:


Nah...it's pretty much right on target. Almost every afternoon along the coast, tropical downpours form when NOLA doesn't get a 10th of inch. The hurricane protection levee is something an engineering marvel. If you're outside, you're out of luck. Down in south Lafourche Parish, a good 20 - 30 mph wind can easily push swells onto the road and into homes. It's just part of life down here.....definately not a "grain of salt" type report.


You are right on target, skysummit.


Thanks sunny...now if only I can learn to proofread! :roll:
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#50 Postby dhweather » Sun Jun 05, 2005 9:08 am

HoumaLa wrote:Nice to see all the people in the Houma area on line now.


Lots of Houma Homies!!! :D
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#51 Postby HollynLA » Sun Jun 05, 2005 9:50 am

Here in Dulac, LA, (about 17 miles south of Houma) the only thing keeping our land from being part of the gulf/bayous are large pumps keeping the water out. I know it's just a matter of time before this town doesn't exist at all. Even minor TS's like Bill in 03 and Matthew in '04 caused alot of flooding problems that took well over a week to drain out. All it's going to take is one hurricane to take out most of South Terrebone.

I grew up in Harvey, LA, south of N.O. and we moved out of our neighborhood because the homes were sinking into the ground. You could actually look at some of the homes and see it warped or completely cracked. Living close to the Harvey canal, we also had alot of flooding. Honestly, I think it may be a losing battle. :cry:
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#52 Postby skysummit » Sun Jun 05, 2005 10:14 am

HollynLA wrote:You could actually look at some of the homes and see it warped or completely cracked.


Even in Kenner just off of Loyola going north toward Esplanade...the subdivision on the right...you can see many homes there are sinking. The foundations are cracking and some house even look like they're leaning!
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#53 Postby sunny » Sun Jun 05, 2005 10:35 am

skysummit wrote:
HollynLA wrote:You could actually look at some of the homes and see it warped or completely cracked.


Even in Kenner just off of Loyola going north toward Esplanade...the subdivision on the right...you can see many homes there are sinking. The foundations are cracking and some house even look like they're leaning!


Westbank also. The Westbank has some of the worst flooding in the area.
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#54 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Jun 05, 2005 2:41 pm

I probably live on the rare part of SELA that's above sea level -- the River Parishes (although it's not much above sea level, only 17 feet LOL :roll: ) and I notice houses here are shrinking too.

Plus areas to my west have had sort of a real estate boom, they're building houses on land that I think is not appropriate for building houses, even though they're putting them on top of hills. I pass through the area during an ordinary rainstorm (and even during Isidore in '02) and there's flooding. I shudder to think what a Cat 3+ will do.
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#55 Postby BayouVenteux » Sun Jun 05, 2005 6:53 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:I probably live on the rare part of SELA that's above sea level -- the River Parishes (although it's not much above sea level, only 17 feet LOL :roll: ) and I notice houses here are shrinking too.

Plus areas to my west have had sort of a real estate boom, they're building houses on land that I think is not appropriate for building houses, even though they're putting them on top of hills. I pass through the area during an ordinary rainstorm (and even during Isidore in '02) and there's flooding. I shudder to think what a Cat 3+ will do.


I agree with you with regard to land subsidence (sinking) in areas adjacent to the Mississippi River in the river parishes. I have a buddy who lives on the river road in Lutcher and he and his neighbors have foundation problems similar to what people in Jefferson and Orleans Parishes have experienced: failure due to ground subsidence. That's one of the unfortunate drawbacks to the Mississippi River levee...the floods which presented problems for the people living on the banks also replenished the soils periodically with river silt. Now they're contained and no longer able to do the job.

Ditto on the building boom in the Ascension, St. James and St. John parishes. Particularly on two counts...1.) I very much question the quality of construction in many of the residential developments that have gone up in the last 4 or 5 years with regard to the homes' ability to withstand hurricane force winds...particularly with the popularity of the high-elevation "faux chateau" french style homes that are all the rage at the moment in the region , and 2.), the policy of mitigation (digging ponds and using the fill dirt to raise the foundations) in areas that were originally restricted from development by wetlands legislation. Developers in south Louisiana have turned a loophole into a four-lane freeway tunnel and now have the ability to pretty much build wherever the $$$$ will take them, and it's taking them places where common sense and history would emphatically say NO (if any developer and loan officer could be distracted from the dollar signs long enough to pay attention to history).

The obvious nightmare scenarios of New Orleans and the lower coastal parishes aside, there's more potential than people realize for a staggering degree of property damage should another Carla, Betsy, or Camille roll through here ...and unfortunately, a lot of it will come as a result of our own poor planning and failure to wisely and aggressively regulate development.

Whew...rant over. And now back to your regularly scheduled hurricane season.
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#56 Postby tailgater » Sun Jun 05, 2005 8:05 pm

Amen, I probably know of about 5 developments near me that would fall in the category of swamps, not to mention the area along both sides of the Diversion canal.
Guess that's what they mean by "build it and they will come."
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#57 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Jun 05, 2005 10:04 pm

BayouVenteux: agreed on all counts re: the construction materials. I don't think, seriously, that the newer houses being built are sturdy enough to withstand hurricane force winds. I remember during Andrew a tornado roared through here and brand-new houses were turned into matchsticks, yet an older house next to it remained standing. (I live in an older home that was built in the late 60s, and honestly believe my older home is sturdier than the newer houses being built.) That being said, though, if a Cat 3+ comes calling, I'm out.

Not to mention, the land on which these houses are being built is not the best. There are houses that came up a couple years ago along Highway 3127 in Lutcher and Gramercy that quite frankly should not have been built at all, not only for the building materials but for the land they're on.

Does anyone here know about the building codes in Louisiana?
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#58 Postby LaPlaceFF » Sun Jun 05, 2005 10:29 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:Not to mention, the land on which these houses are being built is not the best. There are houses that came up a couple years ago along Highway 3127 in Lutcher and Gramercy that quite frankly should not have been built at all, not only for the building materials but for the land they're on.


Hmmmmmmmmm.....Interesting
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