Closed low to form this week in the caribbean?

[Ola]

This morning's discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST SUN JUN 5 2005

INTERESTING WEEK...ALL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
CLOSE LOW INSIDE OF OUR LOCAL AREA BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THIS LOW. THE GFS IS DEVELOPING THE LOW SW OF PUERTO
RICO AND MOVING OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW WILL
BRING A CHALLENGE FORECASTING THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK


And from yesterday's discussion:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1030 PM AST SAT JUN 4 2005

A LOW PRESSURE
JUST EAST OF DELAWARE WILL MOVE JUST BEHIND AND NORTH OF AN EASTWARD
MOVING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BY TUESDAY
TROUGHING WILL FORM SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW...JOINING UP WITH TROUGHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THAT SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED
TROUGH...AND POSSIBLY A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL FORM ACROSS THE
EAST CARIBBEAN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND MAY NOT SHIFT
FARTHER NORTH OR OVER PUERTO RICO UNTIL THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. A
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 40 WEST MAY AID IN THIS PROCESS.

[cyclonaut]

Another week of watching.

[dhweather]

Week? Nah, five months!!

[Scorpion]

Better not... im going on a cruise today for a week in the Caribbean.

[GulfHills]

Better not... im going on a cruise today for a week in the Caribbean.

So are my daughter and her husband. Prayers for good weather, and have a great time!

[HURAKAN]

I hope the low stays away from South Florida, more rain is not needed for 2 weeks or a month.

[EyeOfTheStorm]

Its been pretty persistant down there, I wouldnt be surprised

[skysummit]

But nothing in the Tropical Discussion yet?

[cyclonaut]

Week? Nah, five months!!

As long as there is no unrelenting beating heading my way!

[Trader Ron]

I cruise during the Hurricane season. Leaving October 1st.

[Anonymous]

Wouldn't be too good of timing with the strong high now built too the north

Canadian Model @144 Hrs
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

GFS--Much weaker Low but High is stll there
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

Euro with low enterring the Gulf on Day 7
http://home.comcast.net/~jekyhe904/euro.gif

[yoda]

Wouldn't be too good of timing with the strong high now built too the north

Canadian Model @144 Hrs
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

GFS--Much weaker Low but High is stll there
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

Euro with low enterring the Gulf on Day 7
http://home.comcast.net/~jekyhe904/euro.gif

The 240 hr Euro has a low near the tip of the Yucutan however...

[HURAKAN]

Wouldn't be too good of timing with the strong high now built too the north

Canadian Model @144 Hrs
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

GFS--Much weaker Low but High is stll there
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

Euro with low enterring the Gulf on Day 7
http://home.comcast.net/~jekyhe904/euro.gif

The 240 hr Euro has a low near the tip of the Yucutan however...

Conclusion, the models are coming into agreement that a low will form but where it will be, is still a mystery.

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 050623
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
222 AM EDT SUN JUN 5 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE WEAK
UPPER LOW/TROUGHINESS THAT HAD PERSISTED OVER THE FLORIDA HAS
MOVED TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
ETA/GFS MODELS PROG THIS TROF/UPPER LOW TO FILL AND WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SUNDAY 00Z KTBW SOUNDING MEASURED 2.01 INCHES PWAT
WITH A SLIGHT COOLING ABOVE 500 MB AS DRIER AIR ALOFT FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL AID IN DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...SOME APPROACHING SEVERE. WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW EXPECT TORRENTIAL RAINS TO AGAIN BE AN ISSUE.
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE LITTLE ON MON AND TUE. THE SOUTH FLOW FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SAT)...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AN U/L LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OR
YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HANDLING THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM WELL IN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
TO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MORE TYPICAL EARLY JUNE PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEABREEZE BOUNDARY...WITH TEMPS AND POPS NEAR CLIMATIC
NORMALS EACH DAY. BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION
AND MOVEMENT OF THE U/L SYSTEM OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS IT MAY ADVECT
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 10 KNOTS AND 2 TO 3
FEET. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCEC OR SCA CRITERIA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE
BOATING CONDITIONS RATHER UNPLEASANT DESPITE THE LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 088 074 088 074 087 / 60 30 50 30
FMY 089 074 090 074 088 / 60 30 50 30
GIF 089 073 091 073 088 / 60 30 50 30
SRQ 086 074 087 073 086 / 60 30 50 30
BKV 087 070 089 071 087 / 60 30 50 30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SB
LONG TERM...EO


Maybe more heavy rain for already saturated ground.

[CharleySurvivor]

Gezzz! haven't we had enough rain already?

I was able to mow my grass yesterday in 'some' places as there is so much standing water from all the rain. Enough rain please!

[Anonymous]

Add the UKMET to the list as it agrees a good bit with the EURO on a low between Cuba and Yucatan for the Gomers

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=144hr

[Rainband]

Thats a pretty broad low.

[tracyswfla]

NO more rain! I am overloaded. Front yard is flooded once again!

If I recall correctly, we had this type of rain right before Charley....

[Anonymous]

Thats a pretty broad low.

True--not exactly a hurricane-just looked like it was hinting at lower pressure and might would later tighten it up.

Now, the 12z GFS and 00Z Canadian are very similar @ 144 hrs

New GFS
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

Candian from last nite
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... hour=144hr

[LaBreeze]

Anyone want to go out on a limb and guess where this Upper level low may end up once entering the GOM?