Yes... but in the heart of the Seattle area it was a pleasant day.
We were in Woodinville at the wineries and Mercer Island (we have guests in town) and it was very nice.
I was a little worried based on what Snow_Wizzard was saying. I figured this day would be a total disaster for showing off Seattle.
In the end... it was a VERY pretty day and pleasant as well.
Pacific Northwest Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
TT...All I said was that I thought the models were underdoing the precip, and in many cases they were. Some places ended up with very little, but many places got quite a bit.
The difference between here and Sea - Tac this month has been nothing short of bizzare! They have had almost no rain and Covington has had 1.18 already. The temperautres have also been far cooler here than Sea - Tac. That kind of difference is not typical. In fact we are often warmer than Seattle in June. Mother nature simply has Covington in her sights this year. Since the first day of spring, I have recorded a whopping 13.92 inches of rain. I can only hope that when it gets cold this winter, this area will continue to get the moisture!
The difference between here and Sea - Tac this month has been nothing short of bizzare! They have had almost no rain and Covington has had 1.18 already. The temperautres have also been far cooler here than Sea - Tac. That kind of difference is not typical. In fact we are often warmer than Seattle in June. Mother nature simply has Covington in her sights this year. Since the first day of spring, I have recorded a whopping 13.92 inches of rain. I can only hope that when it gets cold this winter, this area will continue to get the moisture!
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
-
TT-SEA
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Good evening folks. Looks like thunder storms again tomorrow for late morning into the afternoon hours as small negative vorticities rotate around the main low. However, chances should be much better as this trough finally moves inland. 500MB height still at around 546DM, but temps also a bit colder and at near -26C. And also, lifted indices should be about -2 to -3C with lapse rate of about 7C/Km to maybe even an 8. CAPE values for late tomorrow are just a tad higher and about 300 to near 400 J/KG. Tuesday and wednesday should also have afternoon thunderstorms, but probably with conditions not as faverable since the low will begin to weaken and fill in with time.
-- Andy
-- Andy
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
TT...I think we are kind of on the edge of the envelope with how cold the 500mb temps are. I do not doubt that we have a had a few colder lows in June, but this is respectable. I only remember colder late afternoon temps in June than today one time, and that was 1985. Today we had 52 in the late afternoon, and 1985 had 49.
The thing that really strikes me is that this is in strong constrast to the tenacious warm temperature rut we have been stuck in for quite some time. I still say many of the patterns we have seen and are seeing this year are a sign we have nearly turned the corner into a much colder weather regime. There is an increasing liklihood that next winter will feature a weak La Nina (which also means negative PDO). I strongly disagree that the PDO has to be negative for a period years to make a cold winter for us. Take a look at the winter of 1942 - 43 if you need proof of that. There are also many others. I still wonder just how critical the PDO is, but I will admit I want to see it minus.
The beauty of this is, you cannot say I am wrong about the long term stuff, because you don't know!
The thing that really strikes me is that this is in strong constrast to the tenacious warm temperature rut we have been stuck in for quite some time. I still say many of the patterns we have seen and are seeing this year are a sign we have nearly turned the corner into a much colder weather regime. There is an increasing liklihood that next winter will feature a weak La Nina (which also means negative PDO). I strongly disagree that the PDO has to be negative for a period years to make a cold winter for us. Take a look at the winter of 1942 - 43 if you need proof of that. There are also many others. I still wonder just how critical the PDO is, but I will admit I want to see it minus.
The beauty of this is, you cannot say I am wrong about the long term stuff, because you don't know!
0 likes
-
weather girl
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
Another chilly, sprinkly day here today. I believe we were close to our record "low" high yesterday (officially 58 degrees yesterday.) We should have warmer showers by Wednesday 
.
Although most of the experts have, I'm not completely giving up on 77 as an analog year. For what it's worth, that's the year our record "low" high was recorded for today's date (I don't think we'll get it today.) I still think we could be sizzling in August.
Oregon coastal waters are actually running a couple of degrees above average: 56 degrees. Maybe that's why we're being kinda "trof-y" lately.
.
Although most of the experts have, I'm not completely giving up on 77 as an analog year. For what it's worth, that's the year our record "low" high was recorded for today's date (I don't think we'll get it today.) I still think we could be sizzling in August.
Oregon coastal waters are actually running a couple of degrees above average: 56 degrees. Maybe that's why we're being kinda "trof-y" lately.
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Weathergirl...You could be right about August. As for the warm water off the coast, I think we will see it drop to normal or a bit below within a couple of weeks. I think the last half of this year will bare little resemblance to 1977. We seem to be on a far different course this year.
It looks like a potentially wild weather day coming up for King and Pierce Counties. Convection is already showing up nicely on the visible satellite. The thing that really catches my eye are the strips of showers that are popping up. You can see the showers just pop up out of thin air at a given point and then continue as a row upwind from there. A very interesting phenomenon! It would appear that Oregon is getting most of the rain, but the Puget Sound area is getting the best convective activity.
A big problem with 1977 seems to be appearing already. That June was very warm and dry overall, and this one looks almost certain to be near normal or below in temperature, with above normal precip. Of course the huge problem with 77 was that California was bone dry and the winter of 1976 - 77 was the coldest on record for the NE United States.
It looks like a potentially wild weather day coming up for King and Pierce Counties. Convection is already showing up nicely on the visible satellite. The thing that really catches my eye are the strips of showers that are popping up. You can see the showers just pop up out of thin air at a given point and then continue as a row upwind from there. A very interesting phenomenon! It would appear that Oregon is getting most of the rain, but the Puget Sound area is getting the best convective activity.
A big problem with 1977 seems to be appearing already. That June was very warm and dry overall, and this one looks almost certain to be near normal or below in temperature, with above normal precip. Of course the huge problem with 77 was that California was bone dry and the winter of 1976 - 77 was the coldest on record for the NE United States.
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
The new 12z run shows nothing but one unseasonably cold trough after another for the next weeks. It looks like some days will run much below normal during that time. It also looks like some areas will be flirting with the wettest June on record...IF the models verify. Sea - Tac has gotten off to a slow start, for rainfall, due to nothing but bad luck. I am betting they will do some catching up though.
I knew the below normal temps were going to come home to roost sometime this spring or early summer!
I knew the below normal temps were going to come home to roost sometime this spring or early summer!
0 likes
-
weather girl
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
Well that's true, snow_wizzard. 77 doesn't match up in a lot of ways. Three ways that we do match up, though: 1. dry winter, 2. wet spring (although we have been much wetter this year) 3. coming out of an el nino. But all that can be said of a lot of years....
54 and it's just past 2:30. Just to show how extraordinary this pattern is, I was going back over the last 75 years of records, and there have only been a couple of times when we've stayed below 60 for highs in June for more than one day. The last time was in 99. I think you have to go back to 53 or 54 before that.
Speaking of 1954.....hmmmmmm.....looking better and better all the time.
54 and it's just past 2:30. Just to show how extraordinary this pattern is, I was going back over the last 75 years of records, and there have only been a couple of times when we've stayed below 60 for highs in June for more than one day. The last time was in 99. I think you have to go back to 53 or 54 before that.
Speaking of 1954.....hmmmmmm.....looking better and better all the time.
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Not as much exciting weather as there could have been today, but the temps are well below normal. So far Sea - Tac has been stuck below 60. Well below normal, and there is no arguing that point.
There was some very heavy rain that just missed me by two miles today. I drove to the area being effected, and it was the same story as this entire spring. Pouring in BUCKETS!
There was some very heavy rain that just missed me by two miles today. I drove to the area being effected, and it was the same story as this entire spring. Pouring in BUCKETS!
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Hi guys.. 
. No stormy weather in my area of Woodinville today as of yet. Just some partly cloudy skies with skies becomeing kinda cloudy by around mid-day. Did hear a distant rumble of thunder late this afternoon though. Also had a couple of very light showers, but not enough to add up in the rain gage. Should would like to see some good t-storms! -- Andy
. No stormy weather in my area of Woodinville today as of yet. Just some partly cloudy skies with skies becomeing kinda cloudy by around mid-day. Did hear a distant rumble of thunder late this afternoon though. Also had a couple of very light showers, but not enough to add up in the rain gage. Should would like to see some good t-storms! -- Andy
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
The GFS is certainly beginning to hint as some decent return flow, NE flow rain tomorrow night. I will be interested to see how that pans out. Those return flow situations have been known to really clobber us at times.
Early next week is really starting to look very cool! Very strong onshore flow, 850mb temps near 0, and thicknesses below 540 could spell much below normal daytime temps! Even the Euro is showing a huge pool of cold air dominating our weather early next week.
Early next week is really starting to look very cool! Very strong onshore flow, 850mb temps near 0, and thicknesses below 540 could spell much below normal daytime temps! Even the Euro is showing a huge pool of cold air dominating our weather early next week.
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Snow_Wizzard,
Why do you want well below normal temperatures in the middle of June?! It's not Winter...not even Spring...but SUMMER!! Below normal temperatures and Summer don't mess together.
And you must remember...850 mb heights at 0C does not always mean cold weather in June...that could still produce temperatures in the mid 60s which is about average for this time of year. HIGH SUN ANGLE, DATETIME HEATING...remember it's JUNE!!
I want a return to some warmer/sunnier weather...it's time for another pattern change.
Anthony
Why do you want well below normal temperatures in the middle of June?! It's not Winter...not even Spring...but SUMMER!! Below normal temperatures and Summer don't mess together.
And you must remember...850 mb heights at 0C does not always mean cold weather in June...that could still produce temperatures in the mid 60s which is about average for this time of year. HIGH SUN ANGLE, DATETIME HEATING...remember it's JUNE!!
I want a return to some warmer/sunnier weather...it's time for another pattern change.
Anthony
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Latest GFS this evening shows that after this trough finally moves inland and continues it`s eastward track, that a nearly zonal flow appears to be setting up for the next couple weeks. Not seeing any kind of major/really strong systems, but just run-of-the mill some what weak systems coming aboard to give us showers at times, but also dry periods inbetween. Also appears to be a small trough dipping nearly on us by around the 13th, and another some what deeper trough over the PNW/Western U.S by about the 20th of June.
-- Andy
-- Andy
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
Anthony...I simply want to put an end to this incessant above normal temperatrue regime we have been in for the past 18 months. If this month averages well below normal I will be happy for a couple of months. The progs for early next week IF they are correct would undoubtedly bring well below normal temps. The combination of very strong onshore flow, fast WNW flow, and unseasonably low 500 to 1000mb thickness would really produce some cool high temps. We are quite lucky today was able to get as warm as it did, and even it was well below normal!
The ETA is quite wet for tomorrow and tomorrow night. If correct, we could see widespread amonts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch. These return flow scenarios can produce some of our most miserable weather this time of year. It could be solid gloom and very cool tomorow, but I am not saying that for sure. It is simply possible. It is all going to depend on how soon the cloud band currently over Canada will be able to get here.
The progs for early next week IF they are correct would undoubtedly bring well below normal temps. The combination of very strong onshore flow, fast WNW flow, and unseasonably low 500 to 1000mb thickness would really produce some cool high temps. We are quite lucky today was able to get as warm as it did, and even it was well below normal!
The ETA is quite wet for tomorrow and tomorrow night. If correct, we could see widespread amonts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch. These return flow scenarios can produce some of our most miserable weather this time of year. It could be solid gloom and very cool tomorow, but I am not saying that for sure. It is simply possible. It is all going to depend on how soon the cloud band currently over Canada will be able to get here.
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
While it is not sure that Seattle will have a wet June yet, I thought it would be fun to share something quite amazing with all of you. It seems that very wet June's almost always lead to really cold winter around here. I don't know why, but it is the case. Just take a look at the following!
This map is a composite of the winters following June's where Sea - Tac recorded at least 2.40 inches of rain. Notice how perfectly the temperature gradient goes from cold in the Northwest to warm in the SE. The chances of just any 11 years producing such a perfect trend in a map would be astronomical!
http://www.mindspring.com/~snoman2/images/Wet_Junes.gif
The list of years and comments follow...
1946 - Heavy snow in Nov, Arctic blast and snow in Jan
1954 - Coldest Mar of the 20th century
1956 - Third coldest Jan on record for Sea - Tac
1964 - Wicked Arctic blast in Dec, VERY snowy north and east of Seattle
1968 - Snowiest winter on record for Sea - Tac
1973 - 10 consecustive high temps of 32 or below in areas north and east of Seattle
1984 - White Halloween in the C Zone, multiple Arcitc outbreaks and snow during the winter. Much snowier north and east of Seattle.
1985 - Coldest Nov EVER recorded (period of record 1850 - present)
1990 - You all know about that one!
1993 - Arcitc blast in Nov - low of 13 in Woodinville
2001 - A pretty solid winter north and east of Seattle.
There is not one warm winter out of the group...NOT ONE!
This map is a composite of the winters following June's where Sea - Tac recorded at least 2.40 inches of rain. Notice how perfectly the temperature gradient goes from cold in the Northwest to warm in the SE. The chances of just any 11 years producing such a perfect trend in a map would be astronomical!
http://www.mindspring.com/~snoman2/images/Wet_Junes.gif
The list of years and comments follow...
1946 - Heavy snow in Nov, Arctic blast and snow in Jan
1954 - Coldest Mar of the 20th century
1956 - Third coldest Jan on record for Sea - Tac
1964 - Wicked Arctic blast in Dec, VERY snowy north and east of Seattle
1968 - Snowiest winter on record for Sea - Tac
1973 - 10 consecustive high temps of 32 or below in areas north and east of Seattle
1984 - White Halloween in the C Zone, multiple Arcitc outbreaks and snow during the winter. Much snowier north and east of Seattle.
1985 - Coldest Nov EVER recorded (period of record 1850 - present)
1990 - You all know about that one!
1993 - Arcitc blast in Nov - low of 13 in Woodinville
2001 - A pretty solid winter north and east of Seattle.
There is not one warm winter out of the group...NOT ONE!
0 likes
-
TT-SEA
That is very interesting.
There is no arguing with that evidence. Maybe you are being dramatic about some of those winters but still it is clear that something cold will follow a wet June.
I am not sure why either.
I am also VERY doubtful that Sea-Tac will reach 2.40 inches this month. The NWS discussion tonight is really down-playing the rain for tomorrow night.
Its cool and cloudy. But pretty dry.
There is no arguing with that evidence. Maybe you are being dramatic about some of those winters but still it is clear that something cold will follow a wet June.
I am not sure why either.
I am also VERY doubtful that Sea-Tac will reach 2.40 inches this month. The NWS discussion tonight is really down-playing the rain for tomorrow night.
Its cool and cloudy. But pretty dry.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests