Wet weather for NE Caribbean,Will there be more than rain?

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
545 AM AST MON JUN 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS ON
TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA EARLY THIS MONDAY MORNING...
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE TIME...WITH THE WAVE IN THAT LOCATION
AND MOVING AWAY...WE WOULD EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
LOCALLY. HOWEVER...THIS TIME BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE...A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AT LOW TO MID LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AND
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS SOUTH OF
PUERTO RICO BY TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN DEVELOPING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
FLOW AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUDINESS...AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER WOULD APPEAR TO BE LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES OF EXACTLY HOW THIS SYSTEM
WILL EVOLVE AND MOVE...IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT THE
LOCATION FOR ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE APPARENT
LIKELIHOOD OF A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND THE EVENTUAL ENTRAINMENT OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE...THIS POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
VERY CLOSELY.

&&

.MARINE...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS BROAD...DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTH COMBINES WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO TIGHTEN THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 23 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE ATLANTIC OFF SHORE WATERS AND ALL OF
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR TODAY AND HAVE A HEADLINE FOR "A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT" FOR THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WATERS (AMZ730).

Regardless of what this complex system will be it looks like plenty of rain on tap for the northern islands of the NE Caribbean this week.Let's see what will occur with that low pressure as it moves slowly northward.





The latest GFS 6z run at 72 hours shows the low over Puerto Rico.



At 120 hours it shows the low intensifying north of the islands.

When I say at heading of thread (Will there be more than rain?) I mean if this low pressure will turn into a tropical system bringing strong winds to the islands.

http://atmos.uprm.edu:8080/imageloop.jsp?set=1

Press the play button.

[weatherwindow]

as always, luis, great link...thanks, rich

[cycloneye]

as always, luis, great link...thanks, rich

Your welcome my friend.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 070940
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST TUE JUN 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN STILL
APPEARS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT SAID...SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN GFS MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES ARE PLAYING HAVOC WITH ANY ATTEMPT TO FINE TUNE
DETAILS OF EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN HEAVY RAIN AND ANY FLOODING MIGHT
OCCUR...AS WELL AS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...OR JUST A CONTINUATION OF THE ENHANCEMENT
OF THE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PANAMA TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS BASED ON
THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THEN
EXTENDING/EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
PROBABLY LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 52 DEGREES WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND MAY ACT TO ENERGIZE THIS FEATURE AS IT DOES SO.

THIS OVERALL PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN DEVELOPING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN RATHER EXPANSIVE AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS...AND SOMETIMES WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. GIVEN
THE LATEST OBSERVED AND FORECASTED CONDITIONS...THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER WOULD NOW APPEAR TO BE SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED
AGAIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES OF EXACTLY HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AND MOVE...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT THE
LOCATION FOR ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE FACT
THAT A SLOW MOVING FEATURE MOVING NEAR THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE
EVENTUAL ENTRAINMENT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL APPEAR
LIKELY...THIS POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS AND NEEDS TO BE MONITORED VERY
CLOSELY.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER INCLEMENT WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 22 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN RUN TO RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WINDS MAY NEED SOME SIGNIFICANT ALTERATIONS AT TIMES
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO UNFOLDS.
IRRESPECTIVE...MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND SEEK SAFE HARBOR AT THE FIRST SIGN OF
THREATENING WEATHER. WE HAVE A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR ALL OF
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR TODAY.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 070940
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
540 AM AST TUE JUN 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN STILL
APPEARS ON TAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT SAID...SIGNIFICANT RUN TO RUN GFS MODEL
INCONSISTENCIES ARE PLAYING HAVOC WITH ANY ATTEMPT TO FINE TUNE
DETAILS OF EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN HEAVY RAIN AND ANY FLOODING MIGHT
OCCUR...AS WELL AS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...OR JUST A CONTINUATION OF THE ENHANCEMENT
OF THE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM PANAMA TO THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS BASED ON
THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THEN
EXTENDING/EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN
PROBABLY LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED NEAR 52 DEGREES WEST EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH AND MAY ACT TO ENERGIZE THIS FEATURE AS IT DOES SO.

THIS OVERALL PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...GRADUALLY
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN DEVELOPING SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW AND LOCAL EFFECTS...SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RESULT IN RATHER EXPANSIVE AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS...AND SOMETIMES WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. GIVEN
THE LATEST OBSERVED AND FORECASTED CONDITIONS...THE MOST ACTIVE
WEATHER WOULD NOW APPEAR TO BE SLATED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED
AGAIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES OF EXACTLY HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AND MOVE...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO PINPOINT THE
LOCATION FOR ANY HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING...BUT GIVEN THE FACT
THAT A SLOW MOVING FEATURE MOVING NEAR THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE
EVENTUAL ENTRAINMENT OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL APPEAR
LIKELY...THIS POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS AND NEEDS TO BE MONITORED VERY
CLOSELY.

&&

.MARINE...RATHER INCLEMENT WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS OF 22 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 6 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN RUN TO RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS...WINDS MAY NEED SOME SIGNIFICANT ALTERATIONS AT TIMES
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO UNFOLDS.
IRRESPECTIVE...MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND SEEK SAFE HARBOR AT THE FIRST SIGN OF
THREATENING WEATHER. WE HAVE A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR ALL OF
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS FOR TODAY.

[weatherwindow]

luis...if it occurs, will the development suggested south of PR be directly associated with the wave or the strengthening of a separate trough?....also, what will have become of the ULL which was travelling in tandem with the wave?.......thanks, rich

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 071944
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
344 PM AST TUE JUN 7 2005

.DISCUSSION...A TROUGH AT UPPER LEVELS WILL SIT WELL NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS WEST. AT LOWER LEVELS A TROUGH
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WHICH WILL KEEP WARM AND MOIST ADVECTING IN ON SOUTHEAST FLOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY AT ABOUT 54
WEST...BUT SHOWING LITTLE STRENGTH OR ACTIVITY...SHOULD ARRIVE IN 2
TO 3 DAYS AND CAUSE LOW FORMATION SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA...BUT LIKELY
TO OUR EAST. THAT LOW PRESSURE MAY HAVE SOME FALSE STARTS BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY EJECT NORTHEAST AND OUT OF THE AREA.

THE GFS IS FORECASTING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN
CUBA ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AND THIS WOULD LIKELY INCREASE THE
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER US...AND CONTINUE THE FLOW OF HEAT AND WARMTH
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

THIS SOUTHEAST FLOW WHICH WILL BE SO PREVALENT BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND THROUGH THE LOWER LEVELS...WILL KEEP PUERTO RICO IN A SHOWERY
REGIME AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREDOMINATE THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WAS NOTED ON RADAR TODAY ALONG THE
NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AND WOULD EXPECT THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS REMAINS
HIGH THROUGH THEN WHILE THE POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING WILL RISE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER TUESDAY...AND PROVIDING DRIER AIR PROMISED
ARRIVES...THE WEATHER SHOULD BECOME SUNNIER AND THE WEATHER MAY
ACTUALLY TURN QUITE HOT FOR A WHILE.


Let's see what occurs with all of this mess in the Eastern Caribbean in the next few days as a new tropical wave moving from the east will add fuel to all of this.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 080902
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
450 AM AST WED JUN 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING AS A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS
MOVED ACROSS PUERTO RICO FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE 00Z RUN OF MODEL
DATA IS STILL SHOWING A DRY SLOT OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MORE SUN THAN THE PREVIOUS DAYS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...UNDER PREVAILING EAST WINDS.

MEANWHILE...A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE
CARIBBEAN WITH TWO AREAS OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ONE OF THEM IS OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND COULD
BECOME THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL SEASON...
IF MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. THE SECOND ONE EXTENDS FROM THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THIS THROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA OF CLOUDINESS. AT THE SAME
TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY
THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT
AND THEN MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY...ENHANCING THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION AS IT PASSES BY.
THE GFS TRIES TO DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE CENTER NORTH AND RELATIVELY
CLOSE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.


Good news for the eastern Caribbean area as no tropical development will occur from the mess in the Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters.