Tropical Models plot Low South of PR (A test) Edited

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (AL802005) ON 20050606 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050606 1200 050607 0000 050607 1200 050608 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.2N 65.1W 16.0N 65.6W 16.5N 65.8W 17.1N 66.1W
BAMM 15.2N 65.1W 15.6N 66.0W 16.1N 66.9W 16.7N 67.8W
A98E 15.2N 65.1W 15.8N 65.6W 16.5N 66.1W 17.4N 66.4W
LBAR 15.2N 65.1W 15.7N 65.6W 16.2N 66.1W 16.8N 66.5W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 27KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 24KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050608 1200 050609 1200 050610 1200 050611 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.6N 66.2W 18.8N 66.8W 19.6N 67.3W 19.7N 66.1W
BAMM 17.3N 68.6W 18.1N 70.2W 18.6N 72.0W 18.8N 73.4W
A98E 17.9N 66.7W 18.7N 67.4W 19.2N 68.1W 19.9N 68.3W
LBAR 17.4N 66.8W 19.9N 66.6W 22.6N 64.7W 25.1N 61.2W
SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 41KTS 44KTS
DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 29KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.2N LONCUR = 65.1W DIRCUR = 325DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 14.6N LONM12 = 64.7W DIRM12 = 327DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 64.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Ummm this has been rapid to see the tropical model guidance get bullish with this low.When the models come out like this it is a precursor for an invest to be up.But maybe this is a test of the models too so we will see.

[Brent]

[x-y-no]

Wow .. they're calling it a TD ...

That is a bit surprising ... I'm going to have to see what changed overnight to allow development there ...

[Brent]

Wow .. they're calling it a TD ...

That is a bit surprising ... I'm going to have to see what changed overnight to allow development there ...

Winds only 20 kt(25 mph though). I've never seen them start advisories with winds that low. Even 30 is a stretch.

[Anonymous]

I am not surprised, AKA:

[x-y-no]

Wow .. they're calling it a TD ...

That is a bit surprising ... I'm going to have to see what changed overnight to allow development there ...

Winds only 20 kt(25 mph though). I've never seen them start advisories with winds that low. Even 30 is a stretch.

Well, this isn't an advisory, so that may get around that loophole. I think Luis may be right and this is as much a test as anything at tha moment.

Unfortunately, I can't get to the Wisconsin site (cimss.ssec.wisc.edu) so I can't look at some of the wind fields I wanted to check (unless someone here knows another site with the same info). Looking at the satellite images, there's no significant convection over that center location, everything is off to the east. There does look like there may be a surface circulation there, but I I can't tell for sure until we get a few more frames in visible (IR can fool you about that)

Jan

[Brent]

The low is not in the deep convection. It's FAR removed.

It's supposedly due south of St. Croix:

[Brent]

I think Luis may be right and this is as much a test as anything at tha moment.

A test on a blob that has a chance for development? That just doesn't make sense.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (AL802005) ON 20050606 1200 UTC


BINGO!! It's a test as the catch is the number AL802005 not AL922005. 92L the next number for invest in Atlantic so this is a test only.

[x-y-no]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (AL802005) ON 20050606 1200 UTC


BINGO!! It's a test as the catch is the number AL802005 not AL922005. 92L the next number for invest in Atlantic so this is a test only.

Yes.

OTOH, I note that the SHIPS model actually intensifies it to TS strength in 96 to 120 hours. So maybe it does deserve an invest for real.

There really looks to be some circulation there, although it looks more mid-level than surface. Hard to tell until some more visible frames come in.

Anyone wanting to look at higher-res animations, you can go to:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Click the radio button for "Animation" and then click in the very bottom right corner of the image to see that area zoomed in.

Jan

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NONAME (AL802005) ON 20050606 1200 UTC


BINGO!! It's a test as the catch is the number AL802005 not AL922005. 92L the next number for invest in Atlantic so this is a test only.

Yes.

OTOH, I note that the SHIPS model actually intensifies it to TS strength in 96 to 120 hours. So maybe it does deserve an invest for real.

There really looks to be some circulation there, although it looks more mid-level than surface. Hard to tell until some more visible frames come in.

Anyone wanting to look at higher-res animations, you can go to:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Click the radio button for "Animation" and then click in the very bottom right corner of the image to see that area zoomed in.

Jan

Agreed.Eventually there will be for real 92L if it continues to organize and the models continue to be bullish with it.

[vbhoutex]

I most definitely see a mid level rotation there. It very well could have made it to the surface, but as you said we need more on the visible to be sure of what we are seeing.

Definitely hs been put on my watch closely list.

[x-y-no]

I most definitely see a mid level rotation there. It very well could have made it to the surface, but as you said we need more on the visible to be sure of what we are seeing.

Definitely hs been put on my watch closely list.

Agreed. It doesn't look like the circulation has closed off on the south side at the surface, yet.

I was able to get into the U. Wisconsin wind analysis site finally. That seems to corroborate what we're saying. The vort max is in the 700-500 mb layers. This could deepen, though, if we get some steady convection around that center.

Also, it looks like the ULL is backing off a fair bit faster than this is moving, which would allow for better upper level conditions as time goes by, as long as the jet to the north doesn't migrate that way.

Jan