Closed low to form this week in the caribbean?

[Anonymous]

And the track is below as the GFS states--YES it is fish and the first storm of the season usually shows the future of the rest of the season so they are right----many storms but they are gonna be fish so not much excitement for the east coast-Just like 1995-so we can hang it up



Season is WROTE OFF---see...



I am a hurricane fan and cannot believe mother nature is gonna put it in our face that we can throw our tracking charts away as -if- this storm forms, it is a fish which shows us the mean storm track of the season

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

A season like 1995 or 1933 would be very good news. It looks like this baby really gets strong.

[Anonymous]

A season like 1995 or 1933 would be very good news. It looks like this baby really gets strong.

I'd kinda take the 1933 season with a few minor variations in track---that season looked awesome!!!



But I would purely hate it if the season turned out like 1995!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Lots of storms but who cared as most were fish!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The models are startring to see another system moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 18/67.html

The Gfs shows it in I think the CMC doe's to. MM5,GFS,CMC, all show a system moving out from the Eastern Caribbean. Hold on to your butts here we go.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would not be surprized if we did not get 3 or more system out in the Eastern Atlantic. 1933 could of been more active then we think.

[HurricaneJoe22]

Is the circulation w/ storms SSE of Puerto Rico part of the upper level low or is the upper level low the feature that's spinning around Haiti?
Something could be cooking SSE of Puerto Rico, no?

[x-y-no]

Wow ... the Canadian really goes bonkers with that system northeast of the islands. GFS is getting slightly enthusiastic too.

It's probably worth pointing out that the European doesn't see it at all, though ...



It's also worth noting that timing is real important if this thing does form, since the northward movement is predicated an the fairly far north formation and on the breaking down of the ridge at just the right time. We may reacall that last year the models had substantial difficulty predicting the strength of the ridge even one or two days out at times.

I haven't given up on my western Caribbean idea. Conditions still look like they'll be overall favorable, and there's even some hint of a weak system forming in these same model runs.

Jan

[Amanzi]

And the track is below as the GFS states--YES it is fish and the first storm of the season usually shows the future of the rest of the season so they are right----many storms but they are gonna be fish so not much excitement for the east coast-Just like 1995-so we can hang it up
Season is WROTE OFF---see...
I am a hurricane fan and cannot believe mother nature is gonna put it in our face that we can throw our tracking charts away as -if- this storm forms, it is a fish which shows us the mean storm track of the season

Jekyhe ... *here are some kleenex for your crying smilies* we have not even had a TD yet so relax, we don't know what the season has in store for us. Personally after last year, fish storms will be a VERY welcome sight.

[Brent]

Jek... we didn't have our first depression until JULY 31st. You've got to relax a bit.

[mf_dolphin]

And the track is below as the GFS states--YES it is fish and the first storm of the season usually shows the future of the rest of the season so they are right----many storms but they are gonna be fish so not much excitement for the east coast-Just like 1995-so we can hang it up


Season is WROTE OFF---see...


I am a hurricane fan and cannot believe mother nature is gonna put it in our face that we can throw our tracking charts away as -if- this storm forms, it is a fish which shows us the mean storm track of the season

Where you get the idea that the first storm shows the average track for the whole season is beyond me. It also borders on irresponsible to suggest that the season is over before it even starts. Get a grip and let's take the systems one at a time.

[Anonymous]

ok-but I had heard JB say that a Lot of times they recurve at the same degrees north--

See... In 1999, they all recurved when they reached 30 degrees north so they basically followed the same track

[george_r_1961]

If anything does develop NE of the Leewards the SE US better look out

[gatorcane]

If anything does develop NE of the Leewards the SE US better look out

Why/how can you say that. It's way too early and it looks as though it's moving to the north and east once it develops.

[dhweather]

And the track is below as the GFS states--YES it is fish and the first storm of the season usually shows the future of the rest of the season so they are right----many storms but they are gonna be fish so not much excitement for the east coast-Just like 1995-so we can hang it up


Season is WROTE OFF---see...


I am a hurricane fan and cannot believe mother nature is gonna put it in our face that we can throw our tracking charts away as -if- this storm forms, it is a fish which shows us the mean storm track of the season

Where you get the idea that the first storm shows the average track for the whole season is beyond me. It also borders on irresponsible to suggest that the season is over before it even starts. Get a grip and let's take the systems one at a time.

Folks need to remember that June and July were very quiet last year.
Then BAM, Louisiana to Carolina was affected by one storm or another,
and yes, four for Florida.

One storm is NEVER an indicator for a season.

[chadtm80]

I can just about Promise you that we will not put up with the old "This season is a dud" threads here for very long.... If you have some kind of data that you think will make the season less active etc, then state so and WHY.. Non sence threads will be deleted before long.. Just a friendly heads up

[boca]

If the system by PR forms it will move N or NE the US will not have to watch this particular system. If something forms in the W Caribbean then watch out. I'm saying this because its June.If August than all bets are off.

[boca]

Also look at the fast Westerlies just north of PR.

[Derek Ortt]

in 1999, Arlene formed in the same place where this system may form according to the models.

1999 was a terrible hurricane season, with nearly everything making landfall. Would have been much worse had Bret hit even a small town, instead of the world's largest ranch

The idea that the first storm dictates where everything is going is beyond rediculous. Doesn't surprise me that someone says that JB is behind that line of thinking, as that is typical JB nonsense

[george_r_1961]

If anything does develop NE of the Leewards the SE US better look out

Why/how can you say that. It's way too early and it looks as though it's moving to the north and east once it develops.

Just a hunch..I think the ridge might hold

[cycloneye]

The 12z GFS is not now showing prominent the low pressure nor in the Eastern Caribbean nor north of the leewards.The attention now shifts to the Western Caribbean.