RIDGE BREAKING...BRINGING A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO GOM

[KatDaddy]

From the Hou-Galv Forecast Disc:

UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM OLD MEXICO BEGINNING
ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A GRADUAL DAY-TO-DAY DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PCT FOR WED/THU AS PWS DROP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. WILL STICK WITH NO POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRI/SAT. THE MODELS POINT TOWARD A MORE INTERESTING FORECAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SHOWING THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND BRINGING A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE GULF.

As I said before.....a long interesting season is here.

[KatDaddy]

From the New Orleans Forecast Disc:

SOME DISORGANIZED ENERGY AND
MOISTURE IN THE CARIBBEAN MAY ALSO TRY TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD
BY THE WEEKEND PERIOD WHICH MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE WEATHER
PATTERN GETTING INTO NEXT WEEK.

[vbhoutex]

I am surprised they are mentioning it this early. Hopefully it won't affect my daughters trip to Cozumel that starts on Weds. or my bosses trip there that ends on Thursday.

[canegrl04]

WOW we could actually have a TD or TS in the GOM in the coming days Yes it will be a long,interesting season

[Aquawind]

Hmmm.. Well they are talkin Ridge over Florida and things should pass south but we shall see..Looks more like model confusion has people mentioning anything could happen.. At least TBW's take from the discussion seems so..Monitoring galore..

Paul

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

.LONG TERM (WED NGT-SUN)...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL CREATE DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR EARLY TO MID JUNE.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP EACH DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR CLIMATIC
NORMALS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR AN EASTERLY WAVE AND TUTT LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THEY MAY INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE IN THE PERIOD. BUT THESE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM WELL...SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

[Steve]

There is some model support from the UK Met and European for something to sit south of Louisiana with a ridge building in overtop from the east. One would think with the burst of westerlies that's been happening for the last 20 days that eventually something like that would kick off to the NE, but at least we've got a couple of things to watch (including Eastern Caribbean) this week.

Steve

[x-y-no]

From the Hou-Galv Forecast Disc:

UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM OLD MEXICO BEGINNING
ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A GRADUAL DAY-TO-DAY DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PCT FOR WED/THU AS PWS DROP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. WILL STICK WITH NO POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRI/SAT. THE MODELS POINT TOWARD A MORE INTERESTING FORECAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SHOWING THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND BRINGING A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE GULF.

As I said before.....a long interesting season is here.

Now if this verifies, I'll be real pleased with myself, since that's what I was speculating about a week ago.

[Josephine96]

Bring on a June system

[wxcrazytwo]

Bring on a June system

Why bring it on? You would be dumping a loaf if it came your way. Don't ya think last year was enough?

[Josephine96]

LOL I didn't mean bring it here..

I meant bring on our 1st storm to track..

However.. Insensitive as it may sound.. As much as Charley scared me.. I appear to have healed lol.. I have the awesome fascination of loving the powers of the wind..

Forgive me if that makes me sound sick and twisted but I do

[Stormcenter]

This is an excerpt from the Mobile, AL NWS discussion.

The GFS continues to show a weak surface
low developing near the Yucatan on Friday...and moving up into the
central Gulf region on Saturday. With little confidence in this
feature developing and having any rain influence here...have went
with latest MOS guidance and a return to near normal probability of precipitation for the
weekend. However...this could easily change if the easterly wave
develops and moves into the north central Gulf region...placing the
area on the moist and active side. Stay tuned on this feature.

[KatDaddy]

From this mornings Key West AFD:

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
NAM HAS COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW AND
SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA ON THURSDAY. GFS THEN
SHIFTS IT NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY WHERE IT
REMAINS THROUGH SUNDAY.

[PTrackerLA]

Definately something to keep an eye on around here. Bring it on though as this would be just what we need considering the 12" rainfall deficit we're currently experiencing.

[dhweather]

From the Hou-Galv Forecast Disc:

UPPER LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM OLD MEXICO BEGINNING
ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A GRADUAL DAY-TO-DAY DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. WILL LOWER POPS TO 20 PCT FOR WED/THU AS PWS DROP TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES. WILL STICK WITH NO POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRI/SAT. THE MODELS POINT TOWARD A MORE INTERESTING FORECAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...SHOWING THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND BRINGING A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO THE GULF.

As I said before.....a long interesting season is here.

Now if this verifies, I'll be real pleased with myself, since that's what I was speculating about a week ago.

Oh, I know you will.

[Stormcenter]

Excerpt is from the Mobile, AL afternoon discussion:

Heading into the weekend...there continues to be run to run
consistency amongst the GFS in sending a trough of low pressure over
the western Caribbean/Yucatan north northwest into the central Gulf
early in the weekend. For now will maintain what we have going in
the marine forecast from the previous shift...due to the fact there
remains considerable uncertainty as to the character and strength of
such system. There is still plenty of time to reassess. Of
note...wind and sea forecasts are subject to considerable change
toward the end of the forecast if continuity continues.

[dhweather]

New Orleans AFD - no mention of it

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
200 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGE IN THE WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS
INSTABILITY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND A MINOR MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. SEA AND LAKE BREEZES ALONG
WITH BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION WILL SERVE AS THE
INITIATING AND FOCUS MECHANISMS FOR THE DAILY CONVECTION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...SO ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD
MORE NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK WEST OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

[Stormcenter]

New Orleans AFD - no mention of it

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
200 PM CDT MON JUN 6 2005

.DISCUSSION...
NO CHANGE IN THE WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS
INSTABILITY...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND A MINOR MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. SEA AND LAKE BREEZES ALONG
WITH BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION WILL SERVE AS THE
INITIATING AND FOCUS MECHANISMS FOR THE DAILY CONVECTION.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...SO ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARD
MORE NORMAL VALUES FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK WEST OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

I noticed that too when I was reading the afternoon discussions along the Gulf coast. They (N.O. NWS) are always late when it comes to jumping on the bandwagon. I don't blame them considering how far out we talking about.

[N2Storms]

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO SPIN UP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INVOF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FRIDAY, AND TRACK IT NWD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. ANY SEMBLANCE OF THIS FEATURE IS GONE MONDAY.
THE MAIN DOMINANT FEATURE WILL BE THE EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE
WWD INTO THE SERN STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL PROMOTE A LIGHT TO
MODERATE E-SE LOW-LEVEL WIND REGIME, WITH SEA BREEZE CLIMATOLOGY
FAVORING MID TO HIGH SCATTERED POPS OVER FL PANHANDLE AND SE AL.
BEST CHANCES WILL BE FRIDAY, MAINLY OVER NW 1/2 OF CWFA WHERE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED. DRIER AIR IN THE 1000-500 MB COLUMN
ADVECTS INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
POPS WILL BE LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY, GENERALLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS DURING THE
PERIOD.

[MGC]

I don't trust the GFS out a week. I am very skeptical this will occur.....MGC

[x-y-no]

I don't trust the GFS out a week. I am very skeptical this will occur.....MGC

One certainly can't trust a single run. If it starts getting consistant for a fair number of runs in a row, though, it's worth taking heed.

BTW, the 18z run is a little earlier with it, but develops a closed low and moves it north into the gulf ...



Jan