Models getting more interesting!

[mobilebay]

I have never had the problem I'm having now. The problem I'm having is that I can't figure out what system the models are trying to develop in the Northwest Caribbean Sea. I don't know if it is the ULL, or the Tropical Wave in the Eastern Caribbean. Both the Gfs and the CMC develop the system in almost the exact same spot off of Belize. Then the GFS plows it northward into the GOM, and in southern Mississippi. While the CMC develops it and moves it NNE into or just north of Tampa. The ETA develops a weaker system and keeps it in the Caribbean through 84 hours. What system is this originating from? I even looked at the upper air GFS and could not figure it out.

[mobilebay]

Whats interesting now is all three models CMC, GFS, and now the 06Z ETA develop the low in the exact same spot, east of Belize. From my experience when you get models coming together like that it usually means something. Could get very interesting later this week.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wahoo!!! Lets get this show on the road. No more duds in no more messed up models please.

[mobilebay]

Matt what got my attention was that all three of those models develop the system in almost the exact same spot, north of Honduras and East of Belize. The models may be on to something here.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The models been more or less on this system for the last few days. Now it is looking pretty likely. That energy coming over from the Pacific(Crossing over) Is whats going to move out into that area. I think this could very well do something.

The Gfs takes it north in the northern Gulf. Which is around 1000 milibars. The CMC takes it into Florida.

[skysummit]

When was the last time that the models pretty much all agreed on something before it formed? Is this something people along the coast should start paying attention to since models are agreeing?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Eastern Caribbean system was not likely to have happen because a tropical cyclone has never formed over the Eastern Caribbean In June(Past 20 years). But on the other hand the western caribbean is one of the top areas for tropical cyclone development this time of year. The models are showing a system forming over the next 24 to 36 hours. Then moving it northward to northeastward.

Cmc track
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/48.html

The Gfs has a New orleans landfall.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 18/60.html

[mobilebay]

Yes. I believe they should start watching this. I don't think the alarm needs to be sounded though. AT MOST this will probably be a minimal Tropical storm (if that), The GFS is probably to strong, and the Canadian is off it's rocker. I don't think there is much doubt now that a surfacs low will develop, the question is how strong will it be? Remember, GOM SST's are barely over the thresh hold of 80 degrees. With the ground already saturated across the Central Gulf Coast and Florida, this could lead to some real flooding issues.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Add the Navy model(NGP)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 12/80.html

The Ukmet is joining in. A tropical storm Bill like storm.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 00/93.html

[skysummit]

With the ground already saturated across the Central Gulf Coast and Florida, this could lead to some real flooding issues.

Agree....just with the storm totals from yesterday's storms, many, many streets were impassible. Radar estimates of 4" or so flooded many streets around the New Orleans area. A mass of tropical rains right now would be a real problem.

Yesterday's rainfall.....

[Josephine96]

if all the models are in agreeance.. than odds are.. our 1st system may be on the horizon here.. Usually all the models are all over the place..

[mobilebay]

all the models I've seen agree on a surface feature developing in that area. The GFS and CMC are by far the most bullish (imagine that) with it.

[AussieMark]

if several models agree and a trend develops with each run it would give a sense that a system is on the horizon. Unless its justa fluke that several models make a system form


---Mark---

[GulfBreezer]

The individual models on thier own do not present a concern but as you see, the TREND is what is opening eyes around here.......too many jumping on the bandwagon to ignore it.

[weatherwindow]

just a historical note....the keys native(conchs) have always referred to storms developing in the gulf of honduras as "swan island" stoms. this refers to swan island or isla de cygnes at 16.5 degrees north and 83 degrees west, north of the honduran coast. interestingly, this system, if it develops, will develop directly over swan island. the greaat majority of storms which affect the keys originate in the western carib and move northeast over the keys in june and october