6-7-05 TWO 11:30 AM, That's what we are talking about!

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on June 7, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Satellite imagery indicates an increase in cloudiness and shower
activity over Central America and the western Caribbean...and
surface pressures have been slowly falling in the area.
Upper-level winds could become favorable for slow development
during the next couple of days...and if necessary...an Air Force
Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate this system
on Wednesday.

Disorganized cloudiness...showers...and thunderstorms over
the eastern Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas are primarily
associated with an upper-level low. Upper-level winds remain
unfavorable for development.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.
Forecaster Avila/Knabb

[TampaFl]

[PTrackerLA]

Wow recon already being discussed, NHC is not taking this one lightly. Quite amazing how all the models are showing pretty much the same thing now...you know something is up...

[James]

Things are really happening quickly today.

[Brent]

[AussieMark]

this season was supposed to be active I suppose. So obviously the season may be starting earlier than some past seasons have in recent years


---Mark---

[Stormcenter]

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

'Tis the season


Hybridstorm_November2001

[Derek Ortt]

if there will be development, its far more likely to the NE of the silands, not the GOM. The GOM solution does not make meteorological sense at all

[dhweather]

Sometimes nothing in the tropics make sense, which is why we are here.

[skysummit]

If most of the models started to show this yesterday, and continued to come together in aggreement last night, while at the same time convection begins to flare up, maybe we should trust this one. I don't think they would be talking recon this early if they weren't a little concerned.

.....or maybe it's just beginning season jitters???

[jax]

NOAA sees it too....

This is the marine forcast for the NW Carib. Look at Thusday....


AMZ082-072130-
NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 75W
1130 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2005

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
W OF 83W E TO SE WIND INCREASE TO
20 KT. SEAS BUILD TO 6 FT. HIGHER WIND AND SEAS NEAR NUMEROUS
TSTMS W OF 80W.

WED AND WED NIGHT
WITHIN 90 NM OF S AND 180 NM N OF LOW PRES
CENTER WIND INCREASE TO 25 KT AND GUSTY. SEAS BUILD TO 10 FT.
ELSEWHERE E TO SE WIND 20 KT AND GUSTY. SEAS 7 FT. HIGHER WIND
AND SEAS NEAR NUMEROUS TSTMS W OF 80W.

THU
WITHIN 150 NM OF LOW PRES CENTER WIND 20 TO 25 KT AND
GUSTY. SEAS 10 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF LOW PRES W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6
FT. ELSEWHERE N OF LOW PRES E WIND 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
HIGHER WIND AND SEAS NEAR NUMEROUS ENTIRE AREA.

FRI AND SAT
S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SCATTERED TSTMS MOVING W
OF AREA.

[wxcrazytwo]

if there will be development, its far more likely to the NE of the silands, not the GOM. The GOM solution does not make meteorological sense at all

Dude, I mean no disrespect, but these mets are highly experienced. Didn't you just get out of school.. I am here to learn, and I am learning well from this site as well as what the mets put out, but when you vigorously disagree with them, it leads me to suspect that maybe you are toooo critical or over analyzing the situation. JMHO....

Who knows...

[Derek Ortt]

what in god's name are you talking about.

All mets are most concerned about the E Carib for immediate development, not the NW. Recon is going to the NW

Oh, by the way, I have more than 3 years experience in the field already

And yes, the consensus of the mets I have talked to at the University of Miami is that the GOM is illogical.

Yet another untrained person questioning the mets without any scientific data

[Stratusxpeye]

Looking good for the past couple days, lets hope for some action in the gom later this week

[Anonymous]

It is fun to track, but I would hope people stay safe if anythng does happen.

[chadtm80]

Lets all be the adults we are.. How about that?

Crazy conditions for developement are more favorable then they will be in the GOM by the time it gets there.

[Brent]

what in god's name are you talking about.

All mets are most concerned about the E Carib for immediate development, not the NW. Recon is going to the NW

Oh, by the way, I have more than 3 years experience in the field already

And yes, the consensus of the mets I have talked to at the University of Miami is that the GOM is illogical.

Yet another untrained person questioning the mets without any scientific data

Right now they both look fairly impressive.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/IR4/20.jpg

[Anonymous]

Indeed, looks like something could occur like my map showed:::

[wxcrazytwo]

what in god's name are you talking about.

All mets are most concerned about the E Carib for immediate development, not the NW. Recon is going to the NW

Oh, by the way, I have more than 3 years experience in the field already

And yes, the consensus of the mets I have talked to at the University of Miami is that the GOM is illogical.

Yet another untrained person questioning the mets without any scientific data

Dude, I am not going to get into a battle with you but 3 years = green. Anyways, there is no way you are going to drag me into your thinking. one person out of hundreds have posted the same way the models have. One being you. I respect you, but can you be a little less harsh and brazen with your analysis. Cycloneye and Senorpeper I believe give the best analysis. It is pretty thorough stuff.