12Z GFS...Same as Before and Probably Too Fast

[MWatkins]

As the models start rolling out....

The most recent 12Z GFS seems to think that we will have a closed low in 24 hours, which is right in line with the 0Z model in terms of timing and intensity:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_024m.gif

From there it brings the system into the Gulf and affects the East Central gulf in 96 hours (which is only 4 days from now, so that's Friday).

Again, this seems aggressive. Would tend to think that the development curve won't be as rapid as the GFS is indicating right now...but that's the first thing to look for. If there is not a closed low at 8AM tomorrow, then the timing the GFS is advertising is completely off and much too fast.

Will be interesting to see if the UKMET and NOGAPS models latch onto something this afternoon.

MW

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks Mike. Mighty interesting for early June. We're now on a GOM watch

[dhweather]

The 12Z run has itin the Yucatan channel in 54 hours.

<img src="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_054m.gif">

[Javlin]

Yea I noticed that Mike looked like the CMC changed some on the last run.Converging two areas in the GOM almost in 72hrs.So that has changed some have to keep looking to see how persistent they are.

[cyclonaut]

Keep an eye open there you Northern GOMers.

Whatever transpires should'nt be a direct threat to my area so I am not to concerned.

[dhweather]

12Z UKMET is picking it up as well:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... hour=120hr

[Fla Panhandle]

I live in Ft. Walton Beach, I sure hope it doesnt come our way.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

I see where this is coming from. Right now, the cloudiness and showers are slowly getting better organized and I do believe it is possible to see a tropical depression in this area as early as Thursday. The key to it, however, is the persistence of the thunderstorm activity, which has so far been fairly good.

[Agua]

Don't worry. I had planned a weekend fishing trip to Grand Isle. I'm sure that will be ground zero. @#(*!%@!!

[DoctorHurricane2003]

Now that I think about it....this is slowly starting to look like an Allison-1995 type situation. I will see if I can find surface plots from when Allison was a wave in the western caribbean. Any thoughts?

[Brent]

Don't worry. I had planned a weekend fishing trip to Grand Isle. I'm sure that will be ground zero. @#(*!%@!!

Isn't that how it always works?

[Agua]

Yeah, should have known since I haven't gotten away for a fishing trip in 5 years.

[dhweather]

Yeah, should have known since I haven't gotten away for a fishing trip in 5 years.

Well then, you are "due"

TS or fishing, I'm not wure which!!

[melhow]

Now that I think about it....this is slowly starting to look like an Allison-1995 type situation. I will see if I can find surface plots from when Allison was a wave in the western caribbean. Any thoughts?

NHC Synoptic History on Allison 1995

"Satellite images and rawinsonde data show that a tropical wave passed over the Windward Islands on 28 May. When the wave entered the western Caribbean Sea on 1 June, it was accompanied by a broad mid-level cyclonic circulation, which rawinsonde observations indicated was particularly distinct at 700 mb. Convective cloudiness acquired sufficient organization to warrant an initial Dvorak satellite classification at 0000 UTC 2 June. At that time, the cloud cluster was located a few hundred miles to the east of Honduras. The system moved north-northwestward, and gradually became better organized during the daylight hours of the 2nd. The first reconnaissance flight into the area revealed that the system became a tropical depression around 0000 UTC on 3 June, centered 230 n mi east of Belize City. Table 1 lists the best track, which is displayed in Figs. 1a (118K GIF) and 1b. (107K GIF)



Continuing on its north-northwestward heading, the cyclone strengthened into Tropical Storm Allison at 1200 UTC on the 3rd. The intensifying storm turned northward, and moved through the Yucatan Channel. The storm deepened even though southwesterly upper-level winds were creating a shearing environment. In fact, by 1200 UTC on the 4th, Allison became a 65-knot hurricane over the southeast Gulf of Mexico, centered 240 n mi west of Key West. However, the strengthening trend soon ceased and Allison never developed beyond minimal hurricane intensity. Moving northward near 15 knots, Allison headed for the Florida panhandle.



Early on 5 June, as the system drew nearer to the coast, it turned northeastward, and weakened slightly, apparently in response to south-southwesterly vertical shear. Allison's winds dropped just below hurricane force by 0600 UTC 5 June. Landfall occurred at 1400 UTC 5 June on the coast of north Florida, near Alligator Point, and again (after a very brief time over water) at 1500 UTC near Saint Marks. Maximum winds at landfall are estimated at 55-60 knots. The storm weakened further as it headed inland to Georgia, but tropical storm force winds persisted over Apalachee Bay until 2100 UTC on the 5th. Allison diminished to a tropical depression over southern Georgia by 0000 UTC 6 June.



By 0600 UTC on the 6th, the system acquired extratropical characteristics as it interacted with a warm frontal zone to the northeast. Gale force winds developed along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts as the cyclone's isobaric pattern expanded and the pressure gradient increased well east of the low center. During the day on the 6th, the low moved northeastward over the coastal plain of the southeastern U.S., emerging into the Atlantic a little north of Cape Hatteras just after 0000 UTC 7 June. The low, with an associated area of gale to storm force winds over its southeastern semicircle, moved rapidly northeastward, skirting the eastern shore of Nova Scotia on the 8th, as it headed for Newfoundland. After passing over Newfoundland on the 9th, the gale center turned northward, and then north-northwestward, crossing the Arctic Circle to the west of Greenland on the 11th."

[HURAKAN]

Allison before making landfall.

[melhow]

Allison Plot Tracks

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/1995allison.html#TABLE1

[HURAKAN]

Hurricane Allison.

[Wpwxguy]

Thanks for the post Mike. I've read a couple of posts elsewhere and already folks are getting stirred up about this. Chances are if any develpment occurs it will be weak, or at least thats the thinking right now. The thing that those of us here on the north central Gulf coast need to remember is that even a weak tropical system can cause havoc in our area. Especially in the New Orleans area, areas that are proned to flooding already. Here's to hoping that whatever develops moves on out quickly. It'll be quite interesting to say the least over the next 3-4 days. Thanks again and keep us posted on your thoughts. Looking forward to the show.

Bill

[Wpwxguy]

Looking at the sat. image posts, it makes you realize just how easy it really is for these systems to flare up in the GOM this early in the season. Thanks, they really drive the point home.

[GalvestonDuck]

*smacks forehead*

I was about to say, "That sure as skippy is NOT Allison!" Sorry... I forgot, there were others before *her.* At least that one gave warning!