6-7-05 TWO 11:30 AM, That's what we are talking about!

[tracyswfla]

[quote="HURAKAN"]Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on June 7, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Satellite imagery indicates an increase in cloudiness and shower
activity over Central America and the western Caribbean...and
surface pressures have been slowly falling in the area.
Upper-level winds could become favorable for slow development
during the next couple of days...and if necessary...an Air Force
Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate this system
on Wednesday.


Thank you Hurakan, it doesn't give a direction of movement or is it stationary?

[wxcrazytwo]

Lets all be the adults we are.. How about that?

Crazy conditions for developement are more favorable then they will be in the GOM by the time it gets there.

Okay, thanks for the explanation Chaddy. I appreciate it. Maybe I just overblew his posts. Sorry...

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on June 7, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Satellite imagery indicates an increase in cloudiness and shower
activity over Central America and the western Caribbean...and
surface pressures have been slowly falling in the area.
Upper-level winds could become favorable for slow development
during the next couple of days...and if necessary...an Air Force
Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate this system
on Wednesday.


Thank you Hurakan, it doesn't give a direction of movement or is it stationary?

It doesn't talk about current or future movement, but looking at the loops it seems to be kind of stationary for the moment, nevertheless, according to the computer models, if this is the one, it should be moving toward the Gulf of Mexico in the next days.

[tracyswfla]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on June 7, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Satellite imagery indicates an increase in cloudiness and shower
activity over Central America and the western Caribbean...and
surface pressures have been slowly falling in the area.
Upper-level winds could become favorable for slow development
during the next couple of days...and if necessary...an Air Force
Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft will investigate this system
on Wednesday.


Thank you Hurakan, it doesn't give a direction of movement or is it stationary?

It doesn't talk about current or future movement, but looking at the loops it seems to be kind of stationary for the moment, nevertheless, according to the computer models, if this is the one, it should be moving toward the Gulf of Mexico in the next days.

Thank you!

[HURAKAN]

The Western Caribbean Sea disturbance is in the right area for development according to this map provided by the Weather Channel.

[Air Force Met]

what in god's name are you talking about.

All mets are most concerned about the E Carib for immediate development, not the NW. Recon is going to the NW

Oh, by the way, I have more than 3 years experience in the field already

And yes, the consensus of the mets I have talked to at the University of Miami is that the GOM is illogical.

Yet another untrained person questioning the mets without any scientific data

Derek, please don't say "all mets"...because not all mets are. This one isn't. I am not forecasting any immediate development for the ECAR. considering the system is currently located at the base of the upper level trof and is moving against 30 kts of wind. The chances of immediate development (if any) would occur in the WCAR because at least there is some ventilation in that area...and at least it is in an area of anticylconic turning. The eastern system is located in a strong area of cyclonic turning...which makes it no threat for any immediate development.

As far as the GOM being illogical...that is true. Any system that would develop in the NW CAR over the next day or so would probably not make it to a TS and would have the guts blown away from it as it nears the extreme NWCAR or GOM. Later down the road, the eastern system does have a slight chance if it remains south and doesn't move real fast. The low level steering flow is relatively light for this time of year...so that is a possibility.

Now...some advise. 3 years is not a lot of time. I admire what you've been able to achieve...and you should too...but don't let arrogance and pride be what you are remembered for. Heck, I am just taking away the crayons and giving out the permanent markers to my forecasters after they've been here three years. The poster was not disagreeing with you or questioning your forecast...he was pointing out that the NHC is semi-profav. for the western solution and does not think the eastern solution is an immediate threat. He was pointing out that you are disagreeing with the nhc. You might want to provide some scientific data of your own on why the eastern solution merits an immediate concern...and why the NHC is looking in the wrong place....for I don't even see how it is "immediate"...and I am in no way untrained. After all, I've been doing this for over 20 years.

Finally...beware against "group think"...ie "consensus of the mets I have talked"...and usually that is a good thing...but sometimes it can bite you in the butt...big time. On the few occasions where we were outforecasted by the NHC...it was because of group-think. You get in a tunnel vision of thinking...and even when the equation starts to change...you can't bring yourself to change with it (especially if you've already sold your customers on the solution). And there is one thing that you will learn (although you already have a knowledge of it I am sure) with more experience in the field...all mets HATE to be wrong (if they love weather and have any pride in their jobs at all). As you grow in experience (and I'm not talking knowledge), that feeling will grow as well. It's something you will have to fight because the better you get...the more you hate to be wrong and the harder it is to admit you may be wrong (so...it takes longer for you to come out of the forecasting tailspin).

This is also good advise for the amateur mets and the enthusiasts out there too. All pro-mets hate to be wrong...at least the ones that are any good. So...if at times you see them being a little bull-headed on the solution and unyielding (even when their forecast is in the death-throes)...it's usually because they are a pretty good forecaster and have confidence in their abilities. It's hard to think you could be wrong about something when you are usually right. When you put a bunch of good mets together (what I was saying about the group-think) and you all go down the wrong path....well...that is an interesting time to be had by all. It's usually pretty quite. Now...this is not that type of situation...but you all get the idea.

As for my forecast...I think the eastern system has the best chance for development in the long-term. The western system could spin up a LLC and maybe even a TD...but once it gets out from where it is now...it's going to get nailed by 30 kts of SWerly winds. I do not believe the eastern system is any threat for development in the immediate future. The mid-range...2-4 days from now...possibly...as long as it stays south.

Of course...just my opinions here and I admit I have not had a lot of time to look at the finer details...I've been now-casting some aircraft missions....which is a little higher priority for me ATM.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

The SWly shear is really how this system reminds me of Allison. AFM, do you have any information on Allison 1995 as in surface maps, shear history, etc.?

[wxcrazytwo]

what in god's name are you talking about.

All mets are most concerned about the E Carib for immediate development, not the NW. Recon is going to the NW

Oh, by the way, I have more than 3 years experience in the field already

And yes, the consensus of the mets I have talked to at the University of Miami is that the GOM is illogical.

Yet another untrained person questioning the mets without any scientific data

Derek, please don't say "all mets"...because not all mets are. This one isn't. I am not forecasting any immediate development for the ECAR. considering the system is currently located at the base of the upper level trof and is moving against 30 kts of wind. The chances of immediate development (if any) would occur in the WCAR because at least there is some ventilation in that area...and at least it is in an area of anticylconic turning. The eastern system is located in a strong area of cyclonic turning...which makes it no threat for any immediate development.

As far as the GOM being illogical...that is true. Any system that would develop in the NW CAR over the next day or so would probably not make it to a TS and would have the guts blown away from it as it nears the extreme NWCAR or GOM. Later down the road, the eastern system does have a slight chance if it remains south and doesn't move real fast. The low level steering flow is relatively light for this time of year...so that is a possibility.

Now...some advise. 3 years is not a lot of time. I admire what you've been able to achieve...and you should too...but don't let arrogance and pride be what you are remembered for. Heck, I am just taking away the crayons and giving out the permanent markers to my forecasters after they've been here three years. The poster was not disagreeing with you or questioning your forecast...he was pointing out that the NHC is semi-profav. for the western solution and does not think the eastern solution is an immediate threat. He was pointing out that you are disagreeing with the nhc. You might want to provide some scientific data of your own on why the eastern solution merits an immediate concern...and why the NHC is looking in the wrong place....for I don't even see how it is "immediate"...and I am in no way untrained. After all, I've been doing this for over 20 years.

Finally...beware against "group think"...ie "consensus of the mets I have talked"...and usually that is a good thing...but sometimes it can bite you in the butt...big time. On the few occasions where we were outforecasted by the NHC...it was because of group-think. You get in a tunnel vision of thinking...and even when the equation starts to change...you can't bring yourself to change with it (especially if you've already sold your customers on the solution). And there is one thing that you will learn (although you already have a knowledge of it I am sure) with more experience in the field...all mets HATE to be wrong (if they love weather and have any pride in their jobs at all). As you grow in experience (and I'm not talking knowledge), that feeling will grow as well. It's something you will have to fight because the better you get...the more you hate to be wrong and the harder it is to admit you may be wrong (so...it takes longer for you to come out of the forecasting tailspin).

This is also good advise for the amateur mets and the enthusiasts out there too. All pro-mets hate to be wrong...at least the ones that are any good. So...if at times you see them being a little bull-headed on the solution and unyielding (even when their forecast is in the death-throes)...it's usually because they are a pretty good forecaster and have confidence in their abilities. It's hard to think you could be wrong about something when you are usually right. When you put a bunch of good mets together (what I was saying about the group-think) and you all go down the wrong path....well...that is an interesting time to be had by all. It's usually pretty quite. Now...this is not that type of situation...but you all get the idea.

As for my forecast...I think the eastern system has the best chance for development in the long-term. The western system could spin up a LLC and maybe even a TD...but once it gets out from where it is now...it's going to get nailed by 30 kts of SWerly winds. I do not believe the eastern system is any threat for development in the immediate future. The mid-range...2-4 days from now...possibly...as long as it stays south.

Of course...just my opinions here and I admit I have not had a lot of time to look at the finer details...I've been now-casting some aircraft missions....which is a little higher priority for me ATM.

Air Force, great freaking post. I am in no way experienced to say anyone is wrong. You hit the nail on the head. I appreciate your post. You know I had a colleague of mine once tell me when I graduated "People fresh out of under-grad school are like baby cows grazing, the older experienced ones sit and graze intently while the younger cows devour everthing in site, while not thinking that what you eating quickly will not last. I guess what I am trying to say is take your pace be patient and in time it will come to you like all the older much more experienced ones out there such as yourself."

[Derek Ortt]

and part of what I did was MISREAD the TWO into thinking they were suggesting development of the E Carib, when upon a re-read, they were developing the W Carib (which I can see, amybe a TD or a weak TS, but nothing for Texas (BIG mistake on my part... I deserve more than a plate of crow for that one).

I see the E Carib doing something by the week-end, and likely, its the better system in the long-term. The W Carib, would not be surprised to see a depression or a storm, as I said, but this one is a Florida storm in all liklihood.

I know about the mets hating to be wrong... I've seen it quite often here at UM and from myself, we get stuck on a single solution, and we are very slow to change. Got that criticism last year with Ivan when we were very far left of all guidance and would not change with the guidance. At times, it can be good, but others, like Jeanne and into Broward and PB, it does come back and bite us

[Derek Ortt]

too early to tell, but the Peninsula should at least get some rainfall out of this

[PTrackerLA]

Seems as though there won't be much to steer this system any further west than the panhandle and it already seems to have a N or NNE'rly component.

[Stormcenter]

We don't even have a TD and some you already have it moving into Fl. Can we all just wait until it's classified before you start sending it somewhere?

[Air Force Met]

but nothing for Texas (BIG mistake on my part... I deserve more than a plate of crow for that one).

Nothing for Texas indeed. I'd like to see the storm that could plow through the trof that's going to be sitting over the GOM the next week or so (assuming the models hold true). No sooner than the SWT moves out...the longwave moves in. BY the time the ridge gets near us again...I'll be on 2 weeks of leave in Yellowstone and Utah...into the nice cool air and away from this humid furnace. Hopefully the lull will last until I get back...well...at least I hope there won't be any western GOM action until after the 27th of June. After that...let 'em come.

No problem about the rest. I guess the number one thing to remember is "know what you're forecasting." Enjoy and learn from group think...but don't get suckered into a lemming mentality. If you decide to do some graduate work, you'll learn the importance of thinking outside the box and thinking apart from the heard. Now...sometimes THAT can bite you in the rear too...because many times the heard knows the migration route better than the individual. There is power in numbers.

Now if you decide to do some post-graduate work...be prepared to live like a bachelor lion when it comes to thinking. I went into my doctoral program with some good group dynamic skills. I came out needing some serious deprogramming and a swift kick in the butt...which my wife has been more than willing to "help." If you have any problem with pride now...when they tack Dr. in front of your name it's a totally new ballgame.

[Derek Ortt]

also doing graduate work (numerical modeling, etc). Though I have to forecast this year more than I want to due to the RAINEX experiment. I am dreading the 24 hour work days that will soon be upcoming.

Thinking outside of the box... my advisor/boss/friend told me that a few weeks ago. Did get one benefit as it appears possible to run MM5 at very high resolution (outer domain #1 at 12km is what we are attempting to run it at... at 15km, we were able to depict almost the exact track of Jeanne and the correct landfall location 5 days in advance, with the loop and everything. Same thing for Ivan

[tracyswfla]

also doing graduate work (numerical modeling, etc). Though I have to forecast this year more than I want to due to the RAINEX experiment. I am dreading the 24 hour work days that will soon be upcoming.

Thinking outside of the box... my advisor/boss/friend told me that a few weeks ago. Did get one benefit as it appears possible to run MM5 at very high resolution (outer domain #1 at 12km is what we are attempting to run it at... at 15km, we were able to depict almost the exact track of Jeanne and the correct landfall location 5 days in advance, with the loop and everything. Same thing for Ivan

Thanks Derek... my eyes are crossing now

[Air Force Met]

also doing graduate work (numerical modeling, etc). Though I have to forecast this year more than I want to due to the RAINEX experiment. I am dreading the 24 hour work days that will soon be upcoming.

Thinking outside of the box... my advisor/boss/friend told me that a few weeks ago. Did get one benefit as it appears possible to run MM5 at very high resolution (outer domain #1 at 12km is what we are attempting to run it at... at 15km, we were able to depict almost the exact track of Jeanne and the correct landfall location 5 days in advance, with the loop and everything. Same thing for Ivan

Had a friend of mine get his PhD in tropical modeling back from A&M in the 1980's. His name is Keith Blackwell. Conider yourself VERY fortunate to be living in the age you are. He had to run his models on a Harris 600. That was Seirra Hotel back then...and it took a few days for him to get his results each time he would change the algorithm. I mean...the model would literally run for DAYS before it would spit out the results. Very slow...but back then...we just thought "WOW."

As far as models go...one thing good about military modeling is found on the homeland security side of the house. We get into the microscale model runs of the eta...down to 3m resolution (for WMD). You can actually see the winds swirling around buildings. Cool stuff...even though modeling isn't my nook.

[Derek Ortt]

3m?

Wow

We were excited about possibly having a large scale domain of 12km, with an inner nest of 4km for real-time use (wont get the 4km inner nest this season it appears, runs too slow, 120h for 12km takes about 7 hours)

[Air Force Met]

3m?

Wow

We were excited about possibly having a large scale domain of 12km, with an inner nest of 4km for real-time use (wont get the 4km inner nest this season it appears, runs too slow, 120h for 12km takes about 7 hours)

Let's just say the system and program we use to run that output is sorta classified...and "in-house only"...and no bill from Santorum is gonna get THAT released to the public.

[HurryKane]

Now if you decide to do some post-graduate work...be prepared to live like a bachelor lion when it comes to thinking. I went into my doctoral program with some good group dynamic skills. I came out needing some serious deprogramming and a swift kick in the butt...which my wife has been more than willing to "help." If you have any problem with pride now...when they tack Dr. in front of your name it's a totally new ballgame.

What is it they say about academic degrees? Something like: after high school, you think you know everything; after a Bachelors, you realize there are some things you don't know; after a Masters, you realize there is a lot you don't know; and after a Ph.D. you realize you know nothing...

[tallywx]

Now if you decide to do some post-graduate work...be prepared to live like a bachelor lion when it comes to thinking. I went into my doctoral program with some good group dynamic skills. I came out needing some serious deprogramming and a swift kick in the butt...which my wife has been more than willing to "help." If you have any problem with pride now...when they tack Dr. in front of your name it's a totally new ballgame.

What is it they say about academic degrees? Something like: after high school, you think you know everything; after a Bachelors, you realize there are some things you don't know; after a Masters, you realize there is a lot you don't know; and after a Ph.D. you realize you know nothing...

Pretty much. My focus is economics, and one finds that economics can simultaneously explain everything in the world but at the same time predict nothing. If anything remains unanswered or falls outside the model, attribute it to "preferences." In grad. school, we are trained to represent such capriciousness mathematically. Depicting qualitative things with complex math is akin to deriving an equation for any set of points. If the equation is complex enough, it can hit all the existing points, but it can't tell you what the next point will be.