From New Orleans NWS Discussion

[skysummit]

I picked out the interesting parts

"OVER THE WEEKEND...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TAKE AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED ENERGY OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND LIFT IT
NORTH INTO THE GULF. WHILE INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN WITH THE OVERALL
FORECAST TREND OF THIS ENERGY...THIS COULD HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL
IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS IN
PARTICULAR DEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE LOW WITH THIS FEATURE AND
MOVES IT TO THE LOUISIANA COAST SATURDAY. THIS SEEMS A LITTLE FAST
AND AS PER HPC AND TPC COORDINATION CALL A SURFACE LOW WILL BE
INDICATED APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SUNDAY. AS
A RESULT OF THIS POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&"

[N2Storms]

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BETWEEN THE 07/00Z AND 07/06Z
MODEL RUNS WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM
FROM THE WESTERN CARRIBEAN. THE GFS IS FASTER AND DEEPER WITH
THIS LOW THAN THE NAM (ETA). FOR EXAMPLE, AT 84 HRS (10/18Z), THE
NAM SHOWS A 1005 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS, WHILE THE GFS
DEPICTS A 999 MB LOW ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FL. WILL
OPT TO WAIT FOR MORE MODEL CONSISTENCY BEFORE JUMPING ON THIS
SOLUTION. OBVIOUSLY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TROPICS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. REGARDLESS, BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL BE
SATURDAY WITH MID-HIGH SCATTERED POPS. THEN DAILY POPS DECREASE TO
LOW SCATTERED AS THE GFS DEPICTS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING WWD
FROM THE ATLANTIC BENEATH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE FLATTENS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO.

[Brent]

Mobile:

MODELS DEVELOP UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MID WEEK. FROM
THERE...AL THE MODELS TAKE IT NORTH...THOUGH THEY VARY QUITE
SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHEN. OP GFS IS THE QUICKEST...TAKING THE SURFACE
LOW QUICKLY NORTH. AT THIS SPEED...IT BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FA
BEGINNING FRIDAY. ETA IS MUCH SLOWER...WITH THE FA BEGINNING TO SEE
THE EFFECTS OF THE SYSTEM EARLY SATURDAY. GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HOLDS
THIS PATH...BUT STICKS CLOSE TO THE ETA WITH TIMING. OF NOTE...SINCE
THE DGEX USES THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...WHEN THE SYSTEM GETS
INTO THE DGEX'S SPHERE OF INFLUENCE...IT IS ANALYZED...BUT QUICKLY
DISAPPEARS. IT LOOKS LIKE TO MY THAT THE OPERATION GFS IS SUFFERING
FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...HELPING TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH.

FOR THE FORECAST ...LEANED TOWARDS THE ETA IN THE LATTER HALF...AS
IT LOOKS TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THINGS. LEANED TOWARDS THE GFS
IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...LONG TERM STARTS WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY OF SYSTEM WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF FROM THE
YUCATAN. WITH MOST MODELS BRINGING IT MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER THAN
THE OP GFS...HAVE GONE WITH A SLOWED GFS AT FIRST TAPERING TO A
CLIMO FORECAST.

[Brent]

Birmingham:

OH...YEAH...THEN THERE'S THAT SURFACE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN THAT MANY
OF THE MODELS DEVELOP TO SOME DEGREE...AND SOME MOVE IN OUR GENERAL
DIRECTION. THIS IS THE FIRST SYSTEM LIKE THIS OF THE TROPICAL
SEASON...AND I REALLY DON'T YET HAVE ANY FEEL FOR HOW THE 2005
VERSIONS OF THE VARIOUS MODELS HANDLE STUFF LIKE THIS. IF THIS
WERE...SAY...SEPTEMBER AND THE MODELS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD OVER
JULY AND AUGUST...THEN I WOULD BE MORE WILLING TO START RAMPING UP
POPS AND WINDS THIS WEEKEND. BUT THAT'S NOT THE CASE...AND I THINK
IT WOULD BE PRUDENT AT THIS TIME TO JUST SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP (OR
NOT).