Numerous Vortices in NW Carib.

[TheShrimper]

Latest visible shows at least 3 seperate vortices off the CA coast. There appears to be a signature over inland Belize, with the largest in the Gulf of Honduras. The best signature is NE of the eastern tip of Honduras, as there seems to be good convection developing and the outflow seems to be dramatically more impressive. It will again be a battle to see which wins out. If the more easterly feature of the above mentioned wins out, I find it hard to believe it will ever get into the central gulf unless the suspect building high turns out to be much stronger than forecasted. If it does not, look for a W. Fla. Coast rider

[Rainband]

explain why you think this Shrimper. I am curious, all the models are pretty much in agreement. Please explain what they aren't or may not be seeing??

[dixiebreeze]

Thanks Shrimper, food for thought.

[HurricaneJoe22]

It looks as if that easterly center is around 17N/83W and is underneath the convection. movement appears to be N or maybe NNE. This looks as if it will be the low that develops into a depression overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.

[dhweather]

It looks as if that easterly center is around 17N/83W and is underneath the convection. movement appears to be N or maybe NNE. This looks as if it will be the low that develops into a depression overnight tonight into tomorrow morning.

You're seeing the same center of circulation that I am:


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

If this keeps up, we'll have a TD tomorrow.

[Steve]

>> find it hard to believe it will ever get into the central gulf unless the suspect building high turns out to be much stronger than forecasted. If it does not, look for a W. Fla. Coast rider

Not to bust out the wishcaster stuff on the 7th of June, but where are you located? FWIW, I completely agree that the stronger the storm is initially, the more eastward the track up into the gulf is likely to be.

Steve

[Dean4Storms]

I think you guys are seeing a mid level rotation. The actual surface low is not visible at this point, it is too broad.

[PTrackerLA]

I posted the same thing earlier. If the apparent MLC is what actually becomes a TD then I find it hard to believe that it will make it into the gulf given the current NE'erly movement. Think the chances of this being a Florida peninsula system are much higher than say Pensacola westward.

[Rainband]

I posted the same thing earlier. If the apparent MLC is what actually becomes a TD then I find it hard to believe that it will make it into the gulf given the current NE'erly movement. Think the chances of this being a Florida peninsula system are much higher than say Pensacola westward.

You can have it. The last thing Florida needs is more rain.

[Stormcenter]

Latest visible shows at least 3 seperate vortices off the CA coast. There appears to be a signature over inland Belize, with the largest in the Gulf of Honduras. The best signature is NE of the eastern tip of Honduras, as there seems to be good convection developing and the outflow seems to be dramatically more impressive. It will again be a battle to see which wins out. If the more easterly feature of the above mentioned wins out, I find it hard to believe it will ever get into the central gulf unless the suspect building high turns out to be much stronger than forecasted. If it does not, look for a W. Fla. Coast rider

Come on now not Florida. We need a TD first before we start forecasting a landfall on Florida.

[Stormcenter]

I think you guys are seeing a mid level rotation. The actual surface low is not visible at this point, it is too broad.

Good post.

[hurricanedude]

TROPICAL WAVE WATCH FROM BROWNSVILLE EAST TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA ON THE GULF SIDE AND FROM MIAMI NORTH TO SAVANNAH ON THE ATLANTIC COAST!!!...LMAO

[Aquawind]

TROPICAL WAVE WATCH FROM BROWNSVILLE EAST TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA ON THE GULF SIDE AND FROM MIAMI NORTH TO SAVANNAH ON THE ATLANTIC COAST!!!...LMAO

Paul

[TheShrimper]

You know what Steve, I will tell you where I am at . I am on Pine Island, more percisely in Bokeelia. If you do not know where that is, well it is a barrier island so to speak between Sanibel/Captiva and the mainland..Cape Coral.....and on Charlotte Harbor. We caught the E eyewall of Charley and nothing more needs said. If with your remark, you are insinuating that some sort of -removed- is going on in my original post, then you are quite mistaken my friend. I knew nothing of a disturbance in the NW carribean till the news tonite at 6. I researched it further at the nhc imagery and saw what I saw, and posted accordingly. The predominate feature down there was the one I eluded to, not to say it would last or materialize, if any. And it looked like in the short loop it was moving N or NNE, which would take it away from the C-W Gulf. Just an observation Steve and nothing else. Calm down, it is not gonna amount to anything anyways. TheShrimper.

[tallywx]

You know what Steve, I will tell you where I am at . I am on Pine Island, more percisely in Bokeelia. If you do not know where that is, well it is a barrier island so to speak between Sanibel/Captiva and the mainland..Cape Coral.....and on Charlotte Harbor. We caught the E eyewall of Charley and nothing more needs said. If with your remark, you are insinuating that some sort of -removed- is going on in my original post, then you are quite mistaken my friend. I knew nothing of a disturbance in the NW carribean till the news tonite at 6. I researched it further at the nhc imagery and saw what I saw, and posted accordingly. The predominate feature down there was the one I eluded to, not to say it would last or materialize, if any. And it looked like in the short loop it was moving N or NNE, which would take it away from the C-W Gulf. Just an observation Steve and nothing else. Calm down, it is not gonna amount to anything anyways. TheShrimper.

WHEW! Bokeelia got it worse than Punta Gorda. When the E eyewall hit Bokeelia, the thing was at maximum strength.

[Steve]

You got the caveat version because I don't know you from the boards. As I'm sure you know, there are dozens of posters here and elsewhere that routinely sound the alarm and latch onto the model that brings a storm closest to them even if that model was shooed away last week. So I didn't know, but I wanted to ask. I do agree with what you said, but I also appreciate you standing up against the bunk that passes off for 'analysis' because so and so happens to be in the path of "x".

Steve

[TheShrimper]

Tell me about it...not to downplay what happened in Punta Gorda or Port Charlotte, but we got hit bad, very bad. It is just that few know about Pine Island( thats the way we like it) hence, very little coverage. It was sort of like Fla. City, Redlands and Homestead after Andrew. All knew of the devistation in Cutler Ridge, Naranja, Perrine, Kendall and points east, via the media. Yes, there was mention of Homestead, but not to the degree that it should have. I guess if we had multi million dollar houses on P.I. like Sanibel and Captiva, the spotlight would have been on us, not that we wanted it, but what happened, happened.

[TheShrimper]

We all know here in SW Fla that we were lucky, things could not have gone more our way luck-wise with a hurricane hitting where it did. It could have been 10x worse, even with a storm less powerful than Charley. The last thing we want here is a storm that could make that a reality. No problem Steve, I know what goes on in this forum when there is a potential threat. If they only realized how much running water, electricity, stores being open, ice, passible roadways, getting a timely paycheck meant, ect., there would be no -removed- at all. Take that to the bank...if it didn't blow down.

[Josephine96]

Ya need a disclaimer on the tropical wave watch lol

[cyclonaut]

Looks like whatever it is-is getting good UL support right now..Nice outflow evident..Well @ least the southern part of it.