Sign of a Circulation Pattern in the W. Carribean Wave?!?

[Anonymous]

Tough call there but I am not an expert. Maybe one of the pro's will take a look. Derek Ortt usually is up late and posts! We will see.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think there is a weak one developing over the north coast. Look at the avn/gfs(Could it be that Floydbuster was right about his New orleans storm theory) it is looking like it takes it into or close to new orleans in about 74 to 80 hours.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The cmc says look out Tampa.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The models show it where that convection is just north of the coastline. 16 north/85 west.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 18/45.html

[Derek Ortt]

based upon extrapolation of what we saw during daytime visible, the surface vortex should be near the coats now, though convection is not firing around it, but on its periphery.

That said, this is slowly organzing (and much faster than I expected it to)

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree Derek. The models are doing a very good job with this.

[Anonymous]

based upon extrapolation of what we saw during daytime visible, the surface vortex should be near the coats now, though convection is not firing around it, but on its periphery.

That said, this is slowly organzing (and much faster than I expected it to)

Thanks Derek for explaining all that!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Models see what could happen in the Atmosphere. Different views for different models.