Models Developing To Far West?????

[TampaFl]

It appears the models might be initiating the development to far west based on the latest satellite pics. It appears that maybe the system may be developing off the N.E. coast of Honduras. If this is the case, would this shift the future track to the east somewhat? Plus since there is currently no organized defined low level center, how can the models be saying a Central Gulf Coast landfall this far out?. Could the models be off some what?. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html


Robert

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would not really say not that undefined it really looks to have a nice cirualtion forming just to the north of the coast. We will see when visible comes in. But with the models all bunched up like this watch out.

[weatherwindow]

just an attempt at an overview on 90L....IMHO, the key to any further development is the westward extension of atlantic high pressure to the north of 90L. as you mentioned, matt, the models are certainly jumping on a general track toward the central gulf. even the cmc, which is the eastern outlier, no longer takes the system ashore on the fla peninsula thru 144hrs. altho it may have been mentioned earlier, the track may be determined by the strength/stacking of the system. a stronger system may feel remnant UL troughiness and ultimately track further right. certainly a weaker system will track further left based on lower level southeasterly flow. the caveat to the previous argument is that the strength and vertical extent of the system is somewhat dependent on the ridge to its north....which is to say, UL easterlies...sort of a catch 22...a stronger storm relies on the same elements that will, in turn, impart a western nudge to the track.... ....oh how we love the tropics ....rich

[Scott_inVA]

It appears the models might be initiating the development to far west based on the latest satellite pics. It appears that maybe the system may be developing off the N.E. coast of Honduras. If this is the case, would this shift the future track to the east somewhat? Plus since there is currently no organized defined low level center, how can the models be saying a Central Gulf Coast landfall this far out?. Could the models be off some what?. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html


Robert

Not sure about that as it appears there's two circulations. My guess is this caused poor initialization this morning and thus no 6Z runs. We'll see.

Scott

[lilbump3000]

To me it seems that the system might and indeed develop futher east than what the models have previously thought, but I think the forecast track will remain the same.

[Brent]

This system seems to be farther along than people were thinking. Here's hoping recon goes out and takes a look.

[Scott_inVA]

12Z runs are to the east but I don't like the solution (FL panhandle) as it doesn't seem downstream features would support that. Until RECCO gets down there this is just SWAG and we'll know more tonight.

Scott

[vbhoutex]

What I am seeing in the image above is a somewhat elongated mid-low level circulation oriented on a SW-NE line off the N coast of Honduras. Pretty much appears to be the low "center" and trough combined that is producing the "circulation". That may be why some think there is more than one circ center. Appears to me that a lot of consolidation is going to have to happen before the models can initialize this system well.

[TampaFl]

Now that TD #1 has formed, It appears that it did form east of where the models were initiating it early this morning. Also noticed that the models have "shifted" just slightly east of earlier projections. Of course all this will continue to evolve with time and the model runs will also change somewhat as the system continues to get better organized. Thoughts and comments welcomed.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_90.gif


Robert