GFDL= Hurricane New Orleans

[Wnghs2007]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-b ... =Animation

OMG...lol...The New GFDL actually strengthens it over land! It goes from 61 knts when it makes landfall to 77.9 knts west of Memphis. Has it as a strong storm over Lake Michigan...ROFL

You can throw this run in the trash.

[sunny]

David Bernard said if this does develop, we won't feel anything out of this til Sunday, maybe Monday.

[mobilebay]

David Bernard said if this does develop, we won't feel anything out of this til Sunday, maybe Monday.

Not saying ol Dave is wrong but here is the GFS Sat. about 1PM.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

[sunny]

David Bernard said if this does develop, we won't feel anything out of this til Sunday, maybe Monday.

Not saying ol Dave is wrong but here is the GFS Sat. about 1PM.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

He mentioned that. He just feels that development will be slower that the models indicate. I guess we shall see!

[sunny]

Bernard also said he feels that AL and FL will probably get most of the rain.

[Derecho]

The GFDL must be good for something if it's used by forecasters. Does it have any particular strengths?

Comedic value? Kind of like the stand up comic of weather forecasting?

All tropical cyclone intensity forecast models are almost worthless at the moment, and they haven't been improving; the GFDL is not unique in this.

Regarding track forecasting;

Of the individual models the GFDL was the BEST last year and it's generally the best or nearly the best; it was only beaten by several consensus models (averages of groups of models, such as GUNA, which includes the GFDL as one of its four component models).

Why the GFDL is incorrectly perceived as a joke:

1) Run four times a day, has twice the opportunity to be goofy compared to some other models

2) The GFDL INVEST runs. GFDL really is designed to deal with a fully formed tropical cyclone; it doesn't do well with TDs or proto-TDs; but people remember the INVEST runs. If you just look at runs for official systems it looks much, much better.

3) People not mentally separating the horrible intensity forecasts from the track forecasts.

[dhweather]

I would not bash the GFDL. It correctly showed a Cat 4 landfall for Charley, and took Ivan to Cat 5 in the Caribbean.

Sigh. Well, can I still pick on A98E then?

A98E is an open target - shoot at will!!!

[skysummit]

New orleans is falling into the sea anyways. I read it a few days ago

Yea....we're looking into building a house and just found out that Louisiana Building Codes now require you to get a permit from your local Parish Seat to have at least a 40 horsepower Evinrude attached to the southern end of your home.

[LSU2001]

Just a 40 hp. I figured that you would need at least a 150 hp.

[tailgater]

unleaded $1.99 we are conserving fuel here please.

[HurryKane]

unleaded $1.99 we are conserving fuel here please.

Build an outboard that runs on nutria guts and you'll make millions.

[dhweather]

unleaded $1.99 we are conserving fuel here please.

Build an outboard that runs on nutria guts and you'll make millions.

I almost spewed coke all over my keyboard - thanks a lot.

[Brent]

unleaded $1.99 we are conserving fuel here please.

Build an outboard that runs on nutria guts and you'll make millions.

[tailgater]

No more Nutria, there's a bounty on them so they moved back to South America.

[dhweather]

Instead of bombing our enemies with weapons, we should drop millions
of nutria on them.

[LSU2001]

You don't need millions just a few males and females and they will handle the rest of the infestation!!!
Tim

[HurryKane]

No more Nutria, there's a bounty on them so they moved back to South America. Very Happy

I know a guy that got fined for hunting nutria out of season. How can they have a season if they're invasive?

Friend of mine once dropped an earring in the nutria pen at the Audubon Zoo. She wanted to crawl down in there and go get it.

I told her I would applaud her efforts from afar.


And now, I must go make amends with GFDL for gossiping behind its back.

[jdray]

Oh...really? I thought all of the SE coast got affected by both Jeanne and Frances...sorry, guess I was wrong...wait are you sure? B/C Miami/Dade did get alot of rain out of Jeanne and Frances right? Western Collier/Naples Metro barely got anything noticeable out of either system...I thought.

Kevin Cho - East Naples, FL
Junior: Naples High School

I suffered through 3 straight days of TS winds during Frances. As well as a tornado spawning over my house (yes it sounds like many freight trains)
Jeanne was a weaker clone of Frances here.


Miami/Dade and south to the Keys had the least (if any) damages from last year. Every other part of the state suffered.

Panhandle-North/NE FLorida = Bonnie
SW-Central FL = Charley
SE-Central West Central-North-NE Florida = Frances and Jeanne
Western Panhandle = Ivan

People always think Jacksonville is immune or something, we get hit by a TS or Better every 4 years. Most are backdoor hurricanes coming across from the panhandle though.

This area of the state is some of the oldest settled part and has the most people who have lived here their whole lives (guess, but Im pretty sure its true). Most people stock up here early. My gas tank gets topped off 2 days before a storm is supposed to hit, same with propane, food, water, etc...
I bought plywood 3 days before Frances even hit south florida.