6-8-05 TWO 11:30 AM, TD appears to be FORMING!

[HURAKAN]

Tropical Weather Outlook


Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on June 8, 2005


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Surface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the broad
area of low pressure in the western Caribbean is gradually becoming
better organized...and a tropical depression appears to be forming
between Honduras and the Cayman Islands. Upper level winds are
becoming more favorable for development...and this system could
become a tropical storm during the next day or two as it moves
slowly northward. An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate this system later today. Even if the
system does not develop...heavy rains and gusty winds will be
affecting the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Cuba...and the Yucatan
Peninsula during the next couple of days.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday.
Forecaster Avila/Knabb

HORRAY!

[lilbump3000]

With the last few images of the visible loop you can clearly see that its getting better organized.

[dhweather]

Would you please change the subject to "appears to be forming"

Thank you!!

[loon]

Question of the day...TS by time RECON gets out there? That'd surely put a change on some thinking around here...

cheers,
loon

[Stormcenter]

Oh no.

I think it's way too early in the season for this kind of mess.
IMO

Didn't you guys have enough last year? I know I did and I live in Texas and not Florida.

[Brent]

I guess recon is a go.

[dhweather]

:hoola:

I guess recon is a go.

Yeah, I think we can close that poll out.

[Agua]

Oh no.

I think it's way too early in the season for this kind of mess.
IMO

Didn't you guys have enough last year? I know I did and I live in Texas and not Florida.

Yes, the scare from Ivan was enough.

[yoda]

But... the statement states that it COULD become a TS in the next 48 hours.. but with the supposed "slow north" movement, would that not give it more time to develop and strengthen? (I haven't seen the maps yet...)

[Brent]

:woo:

But... the statement states that it COULD become a TS in the next 48 hours.. but with the supposed "slow north" movement, would that not give it more time to develop and strengthen? (I haven't seen the maps yet...)

What other word would they use? Without a plane they can't say anything more than "could" Weather is not an exact science.

[Stratusxpeye]

It's exciting. This is what it's all about. I live east of Tampa here and I'm ready for round 2 this year . Bring em all on. Looks like recon should be going out about 4pm EDT

Article From Weatherbug:

A tropical disturbance east over the western Caribbean just off the Honduras coast is catching the interest of forecasters. Will this be the first tropical system of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season?


The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is keeping a close eye via satellite on this 1004 millibar low pressure area that looks like it is getting better organized on satellite images. Forecasters expect the area of stormy weather to slide north into the Yucatan Channel between Mexico and Cuba over the next 24 to 36 hours. Favorable upper-level winds in this area may help the systems develop.


Should the system continue to develop today, the NHC will dispatch a U.S. Air Force "Hurricane Hunter" aircraft to investigate the system later today or early Thursday. The crew will look for signs of a closed counter-clockwise circulation at the surface.


If they find it, and winds are at least 29mph, then the system will be classified as a tropical depression. Should winds reach 39mph or higher, the depression is upgraded to a tropical storm and given a name. The first name on the list this year is Arlene.


The area of disturbed weather is located where tropical weather systems typically form this early in the season. On average, a tropical storm or hurricane forms in the Atlantic Basin (Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean) once every two years during the month of June. The last June named storm to develop was two years ago when Bill formed in the Gulf of Mexico and came ashore in southeastern Louisiana as a tropical storm.


Current computer forecast models, which take into account the tracks of previous early-season storms, predict the disturbance will move northwestward into the central and/or eastern Gulf of Mexico by late in the week, or the weekend.


As is the case with any tropical weather system, there is a great deal of uncertainty regarding the forecast several days out. So, keep checking back with WeatherBug for updates!

[lilbump3000]

Recon will be out there before 4 P.M. EDT, they will be leaving mississippi around noon.

[HurryKane]

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product is getting fun to watch, too:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/gpar ... _loop.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Alright, since we have something brewing down there I have a couple of questions for anyone that can give some answers. First of all can this thing go POOF before our eyes overnight and die out? Second I was just looking at all the latest sat. pics from the gulf and noticed a big slug of dry air over Texas working SE towards our developing system. I know I am rusty as I have not read loops for 9 months or so, but would that not shear this apart or at least move it more easterly? Lastly how do the computer models pick up on the potential for storms to develop out of nowhere a week in advance?

[Dmetal81]

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product is getting fun to watch, too:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/gpar ... _loop.html

Thanks, I havent ever seen that product before and its quite interesting! While im posting, sending a shout out to everyone and wishing them a "happy" hurricane season, looks like its going to start early this year.

[HurryKane]

The Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability product is getting fun to watch, too:

http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/gpar ... _loop.html

Thanks, I havent ever seen that product before and its quite interesting! While im posting, sending a shout out to everyone and wishing them a "happy" hurricane season, looks like its going to start early this year.

Here's the parent page for that: http://www.cira.colostate.edu/RAMM/gparm/genesis.asp

[KatDaddy]

Setting in Detroit airport.

This is way to early for this stuff. Glad I bought storm panels this year. I don't think TX will so lucky this year

[wxman57]

Here's a snapshot from my GARP screen. Looks like a broad weak low, but definitely NOT a TD at this time. Winds around the center 10-15 kts. Buoy pressure is rising to the north. Probably a TD by tomorrow, maybe a TS by then. COULD be a TD as early as tonight, though.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/arlene1.gif">

[Dmetal81]

Wow, something new every year! This product is great

Observing the latest visible pics this morning and our wave is looking quite organized. Just lacking organized deep convection over the center. The circulation is quite broad, shes a monster (size wize, not strength) for this time of year. It appears that a broad area of high pressure has built in the upper levels, but Ill leave that to the experts.[/quote]

[vbhoutex]

Setting in Detroit airport.

This is way to early for this stuff. Glad I bought storm panels this year. I don't think TX will so lucky this year

At least you are safe up there!!!(not that we aren't) You're quite a distance from home!