I just don't see it.

[wxcrazytwo]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

Okay, as a virgin weather enthusiast, I just don't see the northward movement. I mean see a movement northeast, but not north towards LA. Am I missing something, please advise.

[tracyswfla]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

Okay, as a virgin weather enthusiast, I just don't see the northward movement. I mean see a movement northeast, but not north towards LA. Am I missing something, please advise.

Ya know I don't see it either, I see a movement NE too, but I am a weather novice as well...

[Stormcenter]

We first need to verify a center before we can determine a motion, if there is one. It may eventually move NNE but it will curve back to the NW or NNW was the high builds westward based on what I'm reading but I'm not expert either.
Anyway let's just wait and see what the recon finds.

[tracyswfla]

We first need to verify a center before we can determine a motion, if there is one. It may eventually move NNE but it will curve back to the NW or NNW was the high builds westward based on what I'm reading but I'm not expert either.
Anyway let's just wait and see what the recon finds.

Sounds like a good plan to me!!!

[wxcrazytwo]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

Okay, as a virgin weather enthusiast, I just don't see the northward movement. I mean see a movement northeast, but not north towards LA. Am I missing something, please advise.

Ya know I don't see it either, I see a movement NE too, but I am a weather novice as well...

Well, if the ridge builds back in then I can say that it will recurve more NW slightly. However, I guess it all depends on the ridge.

[GalvestonDuck]

Ditto what Stormcenter says -- gotta watch the center, not all the clouds and stuff that us amateurs tend to see easier. I'm with ya on the problem, wxcrazy. Still training my eyes to ignore the spin when watching for directional movement. It's harder when there's no definite or obvious center (at least, for us non-mets and beginners).

[Steve]

Another trap to avoid is tracking storms at night (especially those in the developmental stages) on IR. A million times a center was out in front of a blob of convection and people swore storm was moving N/E/S/W depending on the system only to find out 6 hours later that the blob in question completely disappeared while the LLC continued on its merry way.

The blowoff on the northern side of this system isn't probably where the center is. It's most likely close to the coastline still based on a recent zoom of visible.

Steve

[lilbump3000]

The center of the storm is at about 17N 85W. You can clearly see it spinning there. It's still somewhat a broad circulation.

[Brent]

Do not follow "blobs" on a disorganized weak system.

[Pebbles]

I try to look at the really filmy kind of gray for rotation (kinda trying to see the low to the ocean clouds) and not the white puffy convection, if it's there. The convection can sometimes throw me off specially on the "new born' disturbances. Usually by doing that I can get an idea of the circulation/movement sometimes.

Christine
I smile because i have no idea what's going on!
2005 guess: 15/10/6
<----- Feel free to Rub the cute LUCKY Pebbles belly!

[dhweather]

The center of the storm is at about 17N 85W. You can clearly see it spinning there. It's still somewhat a broad circulation.

That's the key, it's a broad circulation. It may be developing into a
depression, but will not have an eye-like feature until (and if) it
really develops.

[HurryKane]

I can't see it either, but it is hotter than Hades down here and even non-weather weenies are starting to talk about ol' 90L.

[vbhoutex]

The center of the storm is at about 17N 85W. You can clearly see it spinning there. It's still somewhat a broad circulation.

That is what I see too. It is almost a naked swirl.

I'm not sure if they will be able to classify it or not when they get there in about an hour and a half but they will find a closed circulation feature, imo.

[dhweather]

I hope this helps locate the center of circulation. Look at the still image,
then the loop.

loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Still image:

<img src="http://www.diamondheadweather.com/images/90l3.jpg">

[Agua]

The one I was looking at was over at 85 and a bit further north than the one you have highlighted DH.

[dhweather]

The one I was looking at was over at 85 and a bit further north than the one you have highlighted DH.

I think the one I highlighted will end up being the center of circulation,
but these things love to make us guess wrong.

[dhweather]

Well Aqua, you may be right, the 1845Z visible image makes the
"other" center look like the more dominant one.

RECON!!!

[x-y-no]

What could be going on here is that the LLC, such as it is, is being drawn under the mid-level circulation which is centered a bit further east. So we may bee looking at something like 17.5N 82.5W by the time they line up.

Jan

Hmmm ... maybe half a degree west of that. We'll see.

[Brent]

In the convection too.

[wxman57]

It appears any LLC is west of the convection near 16.9N/84.5W. Those storms east of there are moving south to north. Here, let me post a new picture:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/arlene2.gif">