Arlene (01L) Recon Observations

[loon]

10 mph NNW

[senorpepr]

Any direction of movement indicated yet?

Last report was NE at 4kt

[Wpwxguy]

I'm sure there will be sufficient winds on the east side, just as Air Force Met indicated. We shall see.

[loon]

oops, I thought one of the weather statements said it was going 10mph Nw/NNW, probably mis-read it..I'll shut up now..

cheers
loon

[lilbump3000]

With the latest 20:15UTC add to the loop, the storms look like they are coming together.

[Brent]

oops, I thought one of the weather statements said it was going 10mph Nw/NNW, probably mis-read it..I'll shut up now..

cheers
loon

It did. The TCFA

[caneman]

The movement given is very interesting. Would think that will throw the models for a loop.

[Normandy]

Doesn't seem to be moving that fast...perhaps its wobbling a bit?

[vbhoutex]

The last report gives it what I was looking for which is the definite West wind to the South side of the circulation. IMO, no doubt there is a closed circulation there and the winds are getting close to TD strength. The E quad will definitely be the clincher now.

[caneman]

None the less. I think 1. There initialazation is off and 2. There is a NE movement and perhaps has been fro some time. We'll see how and if that changes things.

[senorpepr]

[RECCO | INVEST (90L) OB #11] Time: 2039Z; Lat: 17.5°N; Long: 83.5°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 951ft; Flt Winds: E (110°) @ 21 mph; Temp: 73°F; Dewpoint: 73°F; Weather: Broken Skies; Sfc Winds: E (110°) @ 12 mph; Remarks: Sea level pressure: 1004mb




97779 20394 40175 83500 02900 11018 23232 /0004
41110
RMK AF305 01AAA INVEST OB 11

[TS Zack]

The movement may just be because the system is interacting with the land. I would say stationary at the moment. 4mph will not get that thing anywhere real fast.

[senorpepr]

We now have a west and east wind report...

[kevin]

When will they declare it a TD? Can they still do so by 5 o clock?

[x-y-no]

[RECCO | INVEST (90L) OB #11] Time: 2039Z; Lat: 17.5°N; Long: 83.5°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 951ft; Flt Winds: E (110°) @ 21 mph; Temp: 73°F; Dewpoint: 73°F; Weather: Broken Skies; Sfc Winds: E (110°) @ 12 mph; Remarks: Sea level pressure: 1004mb




97779 20394 40175 83500 02900 11018 23232 /0004
41110
RMK AF305 01AAA INVEST OB 11

I'm not seeing where you get 12mph ... "11018" is 110 degrees 18 knots at flight level.

[Normandy]

I'm not seeing where you get 12mph ... "11018" is 110 degrees 18 knots at flight level.

He said 12 mph surface winds.

[senorpepr]

[RECCO | INVEST (90L) OB #11] Time: 2039Z; Lat: 17.5°N; Long: 83.5°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 951ft; Flt Winds: E (110°) @ 21 mph; Temp: 73°F; Dewpoint: 73°F; Weather: Broken Skies; Sfc Winds: E (110°) @ 12 mph; Remarks: Sea level pressure: 1004mb




97779 20394 40175 83500 02900 11018 23232 /0004
41110
RMK AF305 01AAA INVEST OB 11

I'm not seeing where you get 12mph ... "11018" is 110 degrees 18 knots at flight level.

Yes, 11018 is 21 mph at flight level, but the 4 group (41110) is 110° at 12 mph.

[x-y-no]

Ah OK, I got it ... "41110"

Never mind.

[Wpwxguy]

Its official...........................

[Wpwxguy]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 082050
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
2100Z WED JUN 08 2005

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 84.0W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 84.0W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 84.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.1N 84.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.9N 84.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.5N 86.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 88.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 34.0N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 37.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 84.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA


$$