I'll go with a 65 mph tropical storm with landfall late Sunday, 60nm either side of the MS/AL state line. Rainy on the east and windy...not much to the west.
The forecasted shear over the system appears to be a little less than previously thought....and I think that is due to the fact it seems to be getting organized a little further east than anticipated. This is what I was talking about yesterday, if it could form a little further east...it had a lot better chance.
NW Caribbean Prediction Thread...
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Air Force Met
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Air Force Met wrote:I'll go with a 65 mph tropical storm with landfall late Sunday, 60nm either side of the MS/AL state line. Rainy on the east and windy...not much to the west.
The forecasted shear over the system appears to be a little less than previously thought....and I think that is due to the fact it seems to be getting organized a little further east than anticipated. This is what I was talking about yesterday, if it could form a little further east...it had a lot better chance.
Do you think once it traverses the GOM, shear will blow the tops completely off, leaving nothing but a naked swirl, or do you think convection will maintain a solid yet asymmetric entity right until landfall?
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vbhoutex
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wxman57 wrote:cajungal wrote:I think if anything was to develop, Biloxi to Mobile is my best guess. I don't think us in southeast Louisiana will see much out of this system. The bulk of the moisture will stay well to our east.
I'd say that's a good guess. Don't understand all the forecasts of a Monday or Tuesday landfall, though. Most model projections are for Saturday. I'm thinking Saturday afternoon/evening.
I think everyone has had the feeling that some of the models were taking this N too fast. What are you seeing that is indicating that they are maybe not bringing it N too fast?
In fact I hope you are right as far as spedd of progression N since my daughter just landed in Cozumel!!
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Brent
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melhow wrote:So a West Coast Florida impact seems out of the picture for the most part?
I think that the hubby and I will keep our boating plans for the weekend, then...
Yes... BUT most of the rain will be east of the center meaning it may still be very wet even if the center moves 150-200 miles to the west.
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tallywx wrote: Do you think once it traverses the GOM, shear will blow the tops completely off, leaving nothing but a naked swirl, or do you think convection will maintain a solid yet asymmetric entity right until landfall?
It all depends on how far east the center is. Latest shear maps show that the further east the track is...the better off it will be. I think it will still be sheared, but it will have a better chance with a track that brings east further east along the northern GOM coast. We won't know the exact track until the actual center forms and the models can initialize the data from that point.
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StormChasr
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AL Chili Pepper
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I have a feeling that Bermuda High wont be quite so strong as forecasted.......
Panama City-Apalachicola landfall Sunday @ noon.
60mph winds.
extremely lopsided, rainfall and winds well east of center of circulation.
lol - gotta love predicting, can we make our own 5 day cone of uncertainity?
Panama City-Apalachicola landfall Sunday @ noon.
60mph winds.
extremely lopsided, rainfall and winds well east of center of circulation.
lol - gotta love predicting, can we make our own 5 day cone of uncertainity?
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vbhoutex
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With it looking like the initialization will be just about where I thought it would be, I have to take an AL/FL line center of landfall to within 70 miles either way. Strong TS to minimal CAT1 but more than likely TS. Just what this area needs, more rain!!!! 
guess I should add in the time of landfall which will be Sunday morning.
guess I should add in the time of landfall which will be Sunday morning.
Last edited by vbhoutex on Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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