WTNT21 KNHC 082050
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
2100Z WED JUN 08 2005
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 84.0W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 84.0W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 84.0W
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 18.1N 84.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.9N 84.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.5N 86.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.0N 88.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 34.0N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 37.5N 86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 84.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
It's official...TD #1
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Air Force Met
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It's official...TD #1
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PTrackerLA
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Christine
I smile because i have no idea what's going on!
2005 guess: 15/10/6
<----- Feel free to Rub the cute LUCKY Pebbles belly!
Last edited by Pebbles on Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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crazycajuncane
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Just got back from Perdido Key, FL yesterday afternoon.
God Bless the folks around Gulf Shores, AL and Pensacola..... 9 months later they have tons and tons of places not even close to being rebuilt.
I got to see some pretty amazing things even though we are talking 9 months since Ivan hit Florida.
God Bless the folks around Gulf Shores, AL and Pensacola..... 9 months later they have tons and tons of places not even close to being rebuilt.
I got to see some pretty amazing things even though we are talking 9 months since Ivan hit Florida.
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Hurricanehink
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Discussion at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... HHMM.shtml
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LOCATED A
POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 KT...MOSTLY CONFINED TO CONVECTIVE
BANDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THE
AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY... DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO NARROW BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND
THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED ONLY TO THE WEST...PRIMARILY DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THIS TROUGH AND DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS FORECAST IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 6
KT...WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A SLIGHT TURN TO THE LEFT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 17.2N 84.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 18.1N 84.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 19.9N 84.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 22.2N 85.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 24.5N 86.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 88.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 34.0N 88.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 13/1800Z 37.5N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND
$$
NNNN
ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LOCATED A
POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND
A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 KT...MOSTLY CONFINED TO CONVECTIVE
BANDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE
SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THE
AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY... DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO NARROW BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND
THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED ONLY TO THE WEST...PRIMARILY DUE TO AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THIS TROUGH AND DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS FORECAST IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.
THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 6
KT...WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND A SLIGHT TURN TO THE LEFT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 17.2N 84.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 18.1N 84.1W 30 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 19.9N 84.3W 35 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 22.2N 85.1W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 24.5N 86.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 29.0N 88.5W 50 KT
96HR VT 12/1800Z 34.0N 88.5W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 13/1800Z 37.5N 86.0W 25 KT...INLAND
$$
NNNN
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Josephine96
The first storm is always exciting... Who is online
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