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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
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cycloneye
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Tropical Depression One Advisory Number 1
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on June 08, 2005
...Tropical depression forms in the northwestern Caribbean...
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Cuba has issued a tropical
storm watch for western Cuba for the province of Pinar del Rio and
the Isle of Youth.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression One was located near latitude 17.2 north... longitude
84.0 west or about 235 miles... 375 km... southwest of Grand Cayman
and about 315 miles... 510 km...south of the western tip of Cuba.
The depression is moving slowly northward as it organizes...but is
expected to begin moving toward the north near 7 mph...11 km/hr
tonight and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts...mainly in rainbands to the north and east of the center.
Some strengthening is forecast...and the depression has the
potential to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.
The minimum central pressure measured by a reconnaissance aircraft
was 1004 mb...29.65 inches.
Heavy rainfall...accompanied by squalls...should begin to spread
across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba tonight and Thursday.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...17.2 N... 84.0 W. Movement
toward...north near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.
Forecaster Knabb/Avila
Public Advisory.
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on June 08, 2005
...Tropical depression forms in the northwestern Caribbean...
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Cuba has issued a tropical
storm watch for western Cuba for the province of Pinar del Rio and
the Isle of Youth.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean should closely monitor the
progress of this system.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression One was located near latitude 17.2 north... longitude
84.0 west or about 235 miles... 375 km... southwest of Grand Cayman
and about 315 miles... 510 km...south of the western tip of Cuba.
The depression is moving slowly northward as it organizes...but is
expected to begin moving toward the north near 7 mph...11 km/hr
tonight and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts...mainly in rainbands to the north and east of the center.
Some strengthening is forecast...and the depression has the
potential to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours.
The minimum central pressure measured by a reconnaissance aircraft
was 1004 mb...29.65 inches.
Heavy rainfall...accompanied by squalls...should begin to spread
across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba tonight and Thursday.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...17.2 N... 84.0 W. Movement
toward...north near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.
Forecaster Knabb/Avila
Public Advisory.
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cycloneye
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Depression One Discussion Number 1
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on June 08, 2005
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft located a
poorly-defined circulation center with light and variable winds and
a minimum pressure of 1004 mb. The aircraft also measured
flight-level winds near 25 to 30 kt...mostly confined to convective
bands well removed from the center. Based on this information...the
system has been classified as a tropical depression...and the
aircraft is still investigating the system. Currently... deep
convection is limited to narrow bands to the north and east....and
the outflow is restricted only to the west...primarily due to an
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. However... most of the
global models weaken this trough and develop an upper-level ridge
over the system. This will provide an environment favorable for
gradual intensification. The depression could become a tropical
storm in the next day or two. This forecast is in general agreement
with SHIPS and GFDL guidance.
The system appears to be moving slowly toward the north at about 6
kt...while the steering currents are weak. However...a ridge is
expected to build over the western Atlantic and central
Caribbean...which should lead to a gradual increase in forward
speed and a slight turn to the left into the Gulf of Mexico. The
GFDL...GFS...UKMET...and NOGAPS bring the system near the northern
Gulf Coast in about three days...and the official forecast closely
follows this guidance.
Forecaster Knabb/Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 08/2100z 17.2n 84.0w 25 kt
12hr VT 09/0600z 18.1n 84.1w 30 kt
24hr VT 09/1800z 19.9n 84.3w 35 kt
36hr VT 10/0600z 22.2n 85.1w 45 kt
48hr VT 10/1800z 24.5n 86.3w 50 kt
72hr VT 11/1800z 29.0n 88.5w 50 kt
96hr VT 12/1800z 34.0n 88.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 13/1800z 37.5n 86.0w 25 kt...inland
Discussion
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on June 08, 2005
an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft located a
poorly-defined circulation center with light and variable winds and
a minimum pressure of 1004 mb. The aircraft also measured
flight-level winds near 25 to 30 kt...mostly confined to convective
bands well removed from the center. Based on this information...the
system has been classified as a tropical depression...and the
aircraft is still investigating the system. Currently... deep
convection is limited to narrow bands to the north and east....and
the outflow is restricted only to the west...primarily due to an
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. However... most of the
global models weaken this trough and develop an upper-level ridge
over the system. This will provide an environment favorable for
gradual intensification. The depression could become a tropical
storm in the next day or two. This forecast is in general agreement
with SHIPS and GFDL guidance.
The system appears to be moving slowly toward the north at about 6
kt...while the steering currents are weak. However...a ridge is
expected to build over the western Atlantic and central
Caribbean...which should lead to a gradual increase in forward
speed and a slight turn to the left into the Gulf of Mexico. The
GFDL...GFS...UKMET...and NOGAPS bring the system near the northern
Gulf Coast in about three days...and the official forecast closely
follows this guidance.
Forecaster Knabb/Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 08/2100z 17.2n 84.0w 25 kt
12hr VT 09/0600z 18.1n 84.1w 30 kt
24hr VT 09/1800z 19.9n 84.3w 35 kt
36hr VT 10/0600z 22.2n 85.1w 45 kt
48hr VT 10/1800z 24.5n 86.3w 50 kt
72hr VT 11/1800z 29.0n 88.5w 50 kt
96hr VT 12/1800z 34.0n 88.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 13/1800z 37.5n 86.0w 25 kt...inland
Discussion
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
If you're "under the gun" this far out, aren't the odds in your favor that the track will shift east or west over the next 72 hrs and you won't be in the bullseye? I kind of took that approach last season and it seems to pan out, since the margin of error for track prediction is over 200 miles at 72 hours out.
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CaneCurious
- Tropical Storm
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Stormcenter
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
CaneCurious wrote:Should I not worry here in N.O.? I have family in town for a wedding Saturday night and a crawfish boil at my house on Sunday.
You should always be concerned even if it's just a strong TS.
I hope for N.O. or anyone elses sake this doesn't surprise everyone and become more than "just" a strong TS.
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N2FSU wrote:If you're "under the gun" this far out, aren't the odds in your favor that the track will shift east or west over the next 72 hrs and you won't be in the bullseye? I kind of took that approach last season and it seems to pan out, since the margin of error for track prediction is over 200 miles at 72 hours out.
Agree N2FSU, thought the same thing. That track is not etched in stone and I am sure it will be adjusted with time as the center gets better organized tonight & Thursday.
Robert
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caneman
TampaFl wrote:N2FSU wrote:If you're "under the gun" this far out, aren't the odds in your favor that the track will shift east or west over the next 72 hrs and you won't be in the bullseye? I kind of took that approach last season and it seems to pan out, since the margin of error for track prediction is over 200 miles at 72 hours out.
Agree N2FSU, thought the same thing. That track is not etched in stone and I am sure it will be adjusted with time as the center gets better organized tonight & Thursday.
Robert
I don't think track is as important with this storm as is where the rainfall ends up. Seen many a system come up the West coast of Florida and just soak the state. Time will tell.
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drudd1
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That's what has me concerned with this one. If it hugs the west coast of Florida, we are going to get soaked! That on top of the fact we are already soggy.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The panhandle doesnt need all that much rain either. Remember at the end of March and begining of April we had 14 inches of rain in 18 hours. Then a week later we got 8 more inches in about that many hours. My house was close to going under water. My street had never flooded before then either. It was wild.
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GulfBreezer
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I have seen Tropical Storms do plenty of damage. The rain we have had here has proven that our drainage system is still severely damaged from Ivan. Massive amounts of rain would be very very bad right now or at anytime this season becasue the "forces that be" are not seeming to be in any hurry to remove all the blockage from our drain system.
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