It's official...TD #1

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N2FSU
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#21 Postby N2FSU » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:09 pm

Back at ya Lil'!!!
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Cookiely
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#22 Postby Cookiely » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:11 pm

Our local newsman just said "let's hope this just keeps going out to sea" :lol: :lol: You gotta love em. Was he even listening to what the met was saying.
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#23 Postby N2FSU » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:14 pm

If you're "under the gun" this far out, aren't the odds in your favor that the track will shift east or west over the next 72 hrs and you won't be in the bullseye? I kind of took that approach last season and it seems to pan out, since the margin of error for track prediction is over 200 miles at 72 hours out.
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#24 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:15 pm

Look like we'll have Arlene soon (in the next day or two). An early start, to what I think will be the most active season (numbers wise) in a decade.


Hybridstorm_November2001
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#25 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:18 pm

:coaster: Here we GO Strap yourselves in
Last edited by canegrl04 on Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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drezee
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#26 Postby drezee » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:19 pm

Image
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#27 Postby The Big Dog » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:24 pm

Let the games begin...
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#28 Postby LarryWx » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:29 pm

drezee wrote:Image


The above NHC track with straight lines between points implies the center would move almost as far east as the AL/MS border.
However, had more realistic curves been used, it would have been further west almost to the LA/MS border.

I'm hoping "Skeetobite" uses curves like what was done last year for Jeanne.
Last edited by LarryWx on Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#29 Postby Brent » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:30 pm

I'm gonna need a boat... we picked up a quick drenching about 2 1/2 hours ago from an afternoon storm. Poured torrential downpours. We've had about 6 inches this month so far...
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#30 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:33 pm

Looks like I've been "coned" as well. Uh oh! :lol:

Honestly I wouldn't mind rain from this system it's been a very dry spring around here and we could use some tropical rains to get us back to normal...
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#31 Postby Wpwxguy » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:33 pm

Looking at the latest visible image, it looks like the convection is starting to fire on the western side. This to me would indicate intensification, maybe not rapid however some at least.
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#32 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:37 pm

Cookiely wrote:Our local newsman just said "let's hope this just keeps going out to sea" :lol: :lol: You gotta love em. Was he even listening to what the met was saying.


$50 haircuts.......$5 brains.
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#33 Postby baygirl_1 » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:42 pm

N2FSU wrote:If you're "under the gun" this far out, aren't the odds in your favor that the track will shift east or west over the next 72 hrs and you won't be in the bullseye? I kind of took that approach last season and it seems to pan out, since the margin of error for track prediction is over 200 miles at 72 hours out.


I like that theory, N2FSU... esp. since I, too, am in the bullseye/cone! :eek:
Of course, I'd take TD #1 or Arlene (assuming she's going to be a TS ONLY) over an Ivan-like monster any day. So, if we take this storm now, does that mean we're immune for the remainder of the season?! Yeah, I wish... :roll:
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#34 Postby Brent » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:47 pm

baygirl_1 wrote:
N2FSU wrote:If you're "under the gun" this far out, aren't the odds in your favor that the track will shift east or west over the next 72 hrs and you won't be in the bullseye? I kind of took that approach last season and it seems to pan out, since the margin of error for track prediction is over 200 miles at 72 hours out.


I like that theory, N2FSU... esp. since I, too, am in the bullseye/cone! :eek:
Of course, I'd take TD #1 or Arlene (assuming she's going to be a TS ONLY) over an Ivan-like monster any day. So, if we take this storm now, does that mean we're immune for the remainder of the season?! Yeah, I wish... :roll:


Bonnie and Frances hit the same area last year(2nd landfall for Frances and only a TS, but still)

Of course there's also Frances and Jeanne hitting the same spot.
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TampaFl
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#35 Postby TampaFl » Wed Jun 08, 2005 4:54 pm

Cookiely wrote:Our local newsman just said "let's hope this just keeps going out to sea" :lol: :lol: You gotta love em. Was he even listening to what the met was saying.


Cookiely, which newsman said that? :eek: :eek: :eek:

Robert 8-)
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#36 Postby oceanbrz312 » Wed Jun 08, 2005 5:35 pm

I was hoping for some sun this weekend but it doesn't look like that's going to happen. They are going to have to change Florida's nickname from the Sunshine State to the No Sunshine State. :cry:
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AL Chili Pepper
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#37 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:33 pm

baygirl_1 wrote:
N2FSU wrote:If you're "under the gun" this far out, aren't the odds in your favor that the track will shift east or west over the next 72 hrs and you won't be in the bullseye? I kind of took that approach last season and it seems to pan out, since the margin of error for track prediction is over 200 miles at 72 hours out.


I like that theory, N2FSU... esp. since I, too, am in the bullseye/cone! :eek:
Of course, I'd take TD #1 or Arlene (assuming she's going to be a TS ONLY) over an Ivan-like monster any day. So, if we take this storm now, does that mean we're immune for the remainder of the season?! Yeah, I wish... :roll:


That thought crossed my mind too, until I remembered Jeanne/Frances and Erin/Opal.
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Arlene

#38 Postby Texasblu » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:37 pm

Somebody please pass me the antacids and while you're at it, some valium. Thank you. :eek:
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#39 Postby tracyswfla » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:42 pm

Aww Texas, I know... you have been through enough!!
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#40 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:44 pm

If anything I would prey that land stops sliding into the sea at 5 feet per 100 years. :roll:
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