Arlene (01L) Recon Observations

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #81 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 5:59 pm

Casp yes it would that is warm water. I think it is trying to get its self together. We will see over the next 12 hours.

This is normal for systems like this.

Derek Ortt · #82 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:07 pm

I would not have initiated advisories if I were at NHC based upon the sat signature and the weak wind reports, plus, it is showing no signs of ddevelopment. That said, don't expect them to drop the system, unless there is a total collapse overnight

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #83 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:10 pm

The recon found a LLC. But those winds are not strong enough in the first place. In plus the fact that there is not a real warm core. I'm not impressed. In that is rare for me. But I think it will slowly come together. In the nhc are the experts.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #84 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:13 pm

[RECCO | ONE (01L) OB #17] Time: 2301Z; Lat: 18.4°N; Long: 85.3°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 1083ft; Flt Winds: NE (50°) @ 30 mph; Temp: 73°F; Dewpoint: 72°F; Weather: Broken Skies; Sfc Winds: NE (50°) @ 29 mph; Remarks: Sea level pressure: 1005mb

97779 23014 40184 85300 03300 05026 23222 /0005
40525
RMK AF305 01AAA INVEST OB 17

#85 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:14 pm

Code: Select all

SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
           INBOUND
 LAT   LON   jHHH  TTDD ddfff
01161 10830 10004 12423 99005
02162 20832 20004 22423 99005
03164 30833 30004 32423 99005
04166 40835 40004 42423 99005
05168 50837 50004 52323 99005
06170 60839 60004 62323 99005
MF160 M0829 MF011
OBS 01 AT 21:58:00Z
OBS 06 AT 22:22:20Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 99005
          OUTBOUND
 LAT   LON   jHHH  TTDD ddfff
01174 10842 10004 12323 99005
02176 20844 20004 22422 04010
03177 30846 30004 32424 04019
04179 40848 40004 42323 04022
05181 50849 50005 52323 05026
06183 60851 60005 62323 05027
MF184 M0852 MF029
OBS 01 AT 22:32:20Z
OBS 06 AT 22:57:00Z
OBS 06 SFC WND 25025
AF305 01AAA INVEST       OB 18

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #86 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:15 pm

Now thats more like it 29 mph winds. Senr.

Derek Ortt · #87 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:20 pm

also, I do not see anything resembling banding in the NE quad. All I see are a few squall lines, with shear and dry air right over the center.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #88 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 6:50 pm

[RECCO | ONE (01L) OB #19] Time: 2344Z; Lat: 16.3°N; Long: 84.9°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 1181ft; Flt Winds: W (280°) @ 16 mph; Temp: 75°F; Dewpoint: 73°F; Weather: Broken Skies; Sfc Winds: W (280°) @ 12 mph; Remarks: Sea level pressure: 1004mb

97779 23444 40163 84900 03600 28014 24232 /0004
42810
RMK AF305 01AAA INVEST OB 19

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #89 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 7:29 pm

[VORTEX | ONE (01L) OB #20] Time: 0.12Z; Lat: 17.2°N; Long: 83.8°W; Central Pressure: 1004 mb; Eye Character: N/A; Eye Shape: FALSE; Eye Diameter mi; Max Flt Wnd: 32 mph (NW quad); Est Sfc Winds (using 80% reduction): 26 mph; Remarks: Sea level pressure extrap from 1500ft; Estimate low center over Islas del Cisne at position 17.4N 83.9W

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/00:12:00Z
B. 17 deg 13 min N
083 deg 49 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 10 kt
E. 230 deg 083 nm
F. 278 deg 014 kt
G. 230 deg 083 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 24 C/ 359 m
J. 23 C/ 360 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 / 1
O. 0.02 / 20 nm
P. AF305 01AAA INVEST OB 20
MAX FL WIND 28 KT NW QUAD 23:02:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT. ESTIMATE LOW CENTER OVER ISLAS DEL CISNE AT POSITION 17.4N 083.9W.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #90 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 8:09 pm

[RECCO | ONE (01L) OB #21] Time: 0.45Z; Lat: 18.5°N; Long: 82.5°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Unknown; Flt Level: 1181ft; Flt Winds: SE (150°) @ 31 mph; Temp: 75°F; Dewpoint: 75°F; Weather: Unknown; Sfc Winds: N/A; Remarks: Sea level pressure: 1005mb

97779 00454 50185 8250/ 03600 15027 2424/ /0005
RMK AF305 01AAA INVEST OB 21

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #91 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 8:13 pm

Pro's here at storm2k what do you think?

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #92 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 8:18 pm

Recon is heading out...

[RECCO | ONE (01L) Mission I, OB #22] Time: 111Z; Lat: 19.5°N; Long: 84.1°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 23983ft; Flt Winds: SE (150°) @ 15 mph; Temp: 5°F; Dewpoint: 3°F; Weather: Unknown; Sfc Winds: N/A; Remarks: None

97779 01114 50195 84100 73100 15013 6566/ /5758
RMK AF305 01AAA INVEST OB 22

Mission II will take off at 10:30pm EDT. They'll be on station from 12-5am EDT and will fix 01L around 2am EDT. Of course, I'll continue decoding obs as Mission I heads back to KBIX.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #93 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 8:49 pm

[RECCO | ONE (01L) Mission I, Ob #23] Time: 145Z; Lat: 21.7°N; Long: 86.1°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 24016ft; Flt Winds: SE (140°) @ 22 mph; Temp: 1°F; Dewpoint: -2°F; Weather: Unknown; Sfc Winds: N/A; Remarks: None

97779 01454 50217 86100 73200 14019 6769/ /5758
RMK AF305 01AAA INVEST OB 23

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #94 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 9:20 pm

[RECCO | ONE (01L) Mission I, Ob #25] Time: 215Z; Lat: 24.2°N; Long: 87.3°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 24016ft; Flt Winds: VRB @ 6 mph; Temp: 0°F; Dewpoint: N/A°F; Weather: Thunderstorm; Sfc Winds: N/A; Remarks: None

97779 02154 50242 87300 73200 99005 68//9 /5758
RMK AF305 01AAA INVEST OB 25

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #95 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 9:52 pm

Mission I complete.

[RECCO | ONE (01L) Mission I, Ob #26] Time: 245Z; Lat: 26.8°N; Long: 88.5°W; Turbulence: None; Flt Condition: Clear; Flt Level: 23983ft; Flt Winds: E (100°) @ 25 mph; Temp: 0°F; Dewpoint: N/A°F; Weather: Unknown; Sfc Winds: N/A; Remarks: Last report.

97779 02454 50268 88500 73100 10022 68/// /5756
RMK AF305 01AAA INVEST OB 26
LAST REPORT

Mission II took off about 22 minutes ago. Stand by for observations...

Wnghs2007 · #96 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 11:17 pm

First New ob out for Mission Two

URNT11 KNHC 090402
97779 03434 50282 89200 75300 15014 70841 /5756
RMK AF304 0201A CYCLONE OB 01

Wnghs2007 · #97 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 11:37 pm

URNT11 KNHC 090424
97779 04134 50261 88210 88400 18011 8098/ /6965
RMK AF304 0201A CYCLONE OB 02

#98 Postby **TSmith274** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 11:42 pm

Dry air, low SST's in the Gulf, shear...etc.... I just don't see this thing doing much. I could be wrong, but I certainly wouldn't put money on this system developing into anything we should worry about. Just my .02

Droop12 · #99 Postby **Droop12** » Wed Jun 08, 2005 11:48 pm

Low sea surface temps? Where do you see low sea surface temps in the Gulf? I agree about all the dry air associated with the trough in the gulf but Im pretty sure the water temps are at least 81+ over the entire Central and Southern Gulf. In my book, thats plenty warm for a developing tropical system.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #100 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu Jun 09, 2005 12:11 am

Droop12 wrote:Low sea surface temps? Where do you see low sea surface temps in the Gulf? I agree about all the dry air associated with the trough in the gulf but Im pretty sure the water temps are at least 81+ over the entire Central and Southern Gulf. In my book, thats plenty warm for a developing tropical system.

I believe he is speaking of lower than normal temps in the GOM, which is true.

Arlene (01L) Recon Observations

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