5 AM EDT Jun 09 2005 TD1

[iceangel]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 090837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT...OVER ALL...THE WIND FIELD OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
REMAIN AT LEAST 75 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE MAXIMUM WINDS
REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT ARE 34 KT...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1002 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...WHICH
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NEW NOAA BUOY
42056.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/7. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE
DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN INITIAL NORTHWARD MOTION...
FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN 12-24 HR. THIS MOTION
WILL LIKELY BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
IN ABOUT 72 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE INTO
THE WESTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ALL DYNAMICAL
MODELS AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES IN SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER UKMET...
NOGAPS...AND GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND
UKMET...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE BROAD WIND STRUCTURE...THE CURRENT LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...
AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL
SUGGEST THAT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL.
INDEED...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY
FORECASTING ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING...WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL
BOTH CALLING FOR WINDS TO REACH ABOUT 50 KT IN 36-48 HR. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SIMILAR STRENGTHENING UNTIL
LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES.

IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK SHOWN HERE...BECAUSE
OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME
FRAME...AS WELL AS THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION.

FORECASTER BEVEN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/0900Z 18.6N 83.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 20.0N 84.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 22.2N 84.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 24.7N 85.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 27.2N 87.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 31.5N 88.5W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 13/0600Z 36.5N 87.0W 25 KT...INLAND


$$

[iceangel]

000
WTNT21 KNHC 090839
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
0900Z THU JUN 09 2005

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN WESTERN CUBA. TROPICAL
STORM WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR OTHER PARTS OF WESTERN
CUBA LATER TODAY.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 83.9W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 83.9W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 83.9W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.0N 84.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N 84.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.7N 85.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.2N 87.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 83.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

[mobilebay]

iceangel, it looks like we are in for some heavy rains, The official track is now between me and you.

[iceangel]

000
WTNT71 KNHC 090837
SPFAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT SUN JUN 12 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

22.2N 84.8W 41 X X X 41 ST MARKS FL X X 7 6 13
24.7N 85.8W 4 27 X X 31 APALACHICOLA FL X 1 11 4 16
27.2N 87.0W X 14 11 1 26 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 11 5 17
MWCG 193N 814W 2 X X X 2 PENSACOLA FL X X 12 7 19
MUSN 216N 826W 17 2 X 1 20 MOBILE AL X X 10 8 18
MUHA 230N 824W 3 7 1 X 11 GULFPORT MS X X 10 8 18
MUAN 219N 850W 43 X X X 43 BURAS LA X X 12 6 18
MMCZ 205N 869W 6 2 1 X 9 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 7 9 16
MARATHON FL X 1 X 1 2 NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 11 13
FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X X 8 8
COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X X 6 6
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 1 3 4 FREEPORT TX X X X 4 4
JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 4 5 PORT O CONNOR TX X X X 3 3
SAVANNAH GA X X X 4 4 GULF 29N 85W X 2 12 3 17
CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X 3 16 2 21
KEY WEST FL X 2 2 1 5 GULF 28N 89W X 3 15 2 20
MARCO ISLAND FL X 1 2 1 4 GULF 28N 91W X X 8 7 15
FT MYERS FL X 1 2 2 5 GULF 28N 93W X X 1 8 9
VENICE FL X 1 5 2 8 GULF 28N 95W X X X 4 4
TAMPA FL X X 5 3 8 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2
CEDAR KEY FL X X 5 5 10

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER BEVEN


$$

iceangel, it looks like we are in for some heavy rains, The official track is now between me and you.

Yeah and Escambia County still has tons of debris along the roadways to be picked up.

[mobilebay]

Mobile NWS is now calling for 60 MPH wind gusts Saturday.
Check this out!!!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/ ... nty=alc097