625
WTNT61 KNHC 091048
TCUAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
650 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005
A 09Z SHIP REPORT 130 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. A SPECIAL ADVISORY ON
ARLENE WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
Official Tropical Storm Arlene!!
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Official Tropical Storm Arlene!!
0 likes
-
Brett Adair
- Category 1
- Posts: 322
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 8:49 pm
- Location: Sylacauga, Alabama
- Contact:
-
george_r_1961
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 3171
- Age: 64
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2002 9:14 pm
- Location: Carbondale, Pennsylvania
Im not surprised either. The intensity forecast is going to, as always, be problematic. Positve factors are warm SST's and light shear (the shear was light the last time I looked); inhibiting factors are dry air to the west and the fact that despite being at TS strength its not terribly well organized as of yet. Lets watch and see if the convection can cluster around the LLC. If that happens then we could see some significant intensification.
Not really expecting more than a cat 1 though..probably a strong TS.
Not really expecting more than a cat 1 though..probably a strong TS.
0 likes
-
weatherwindow
- Category 4
- Posts: 904
- Joined: Mon Sep 20, 2004 9:48 am
- Location: key west/ft lauderdale
did anyone notice that the ship report, on which the NHC based its upgrade, was 130mi from the center....quasi-subtropical? with all due respect to our first TS, arlene is a fairly amorphous mess.....i wouldnt be surprised to see the center relocate to the east...closer to the major convection...any thoughts?..........rich
0 likes
-
Matt-hurricanewatcher
997
WTNT31 KNHC 091146
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005
...SHIP REPORT INDICATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS BECOME TROPICAL
STORM ARLENE...THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON...
AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE CITY OF HAVANA AND
HAVANA PROVINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO HAVANA PROVINCE...INCLUDING THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT
185 MILES... 295 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 190 MILES...
305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING
THE CENTER NEAR WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT.
A REPORT FROM A SHIP BETWEEN THE CENTER OF ARLENE AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS INDICATES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
...240 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ARLENE.
MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO ARLENE IS PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...19.1 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT31 KNHC 091146
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005
...SHIP REPORT INDICATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS BECOME TROPICAL
STORM ARLENE...THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON...
AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE CITY OF HAVANA AND
HAVANA PROVINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO HAVANA PROVINCE...INCLUDING THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT
185 MILES... 295 KM...WEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 190 MILES...
305 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION COULD BRING
THE CENTER NEAR WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT.
A REPORT FROM A SHIP BETWEEN THE CENTER OF ARLENE AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS INDICATES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE HAVE INCREASED TO
NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES
...240 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.
HEAVY RAINFALL...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLS...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ARLENE.
MOISTURE FLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO ARLENE IS PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PARTICULARLY
NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...19.1 N... 84.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
0 likes
It's going to be a long couple days.. Mmm Java is my friend.. 
897
WTNT41 KNHC 091147
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005
SHIP 3FFL8 REPORTED 40 KT WINDS WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 130 N MI
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE. A QUALITY
CONTROL CHECK BY THE OCEAN PREDICITON CENTER SUGGESTED THIS REPORT
WAS ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH...BUT STILL OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE. BASED
ON THIS A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPGRADE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE TO TROPICAL STORM ARLENE.
THE SHIP REPORT REQUIRES A 130 N MI WIND RADIUS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT...WHICH IS CARRIED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EXPANDED WIND RADIUS REQUIRES THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CUBA TO
BE EXTENDED EASTWARD. THERE ARE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1200Z 19.1N 84.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 20.0N 84.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 22.2N 84.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 24.7N 85.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 27.2N 87.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 31.5N 88.5W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 13/0600Z 36.5N 87.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
WTNT41 KNHC 091147
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005
SHIP 3FFL8 REPORTED 40 KT WINDS WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 130 N MI
EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE. A QUALITY
CONTROL CHECK BY THE OCEAN PREDICITON CENTER SUGGESTED THIS REPORT
WAS ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH...BUT STILL OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE. BASED
ON THIS A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPGRADE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE TO TROPICAL STORM ARLENE.
THE SHIP REPORT REQUIRES A 130 N MI WIND RADIUS IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT...WHICH IS CARRIED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EXPANDED WIND RADIUS REQUIRES THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CUBA TO
BE EXTENDED EASTWARD. THERE ARE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1200Z 19.1N 84.0W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/1800Z 20.0N 84.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 10/0600Z 22.2N 84.8W 40 KT
36HR VT 10/1800Z 24.7N 85.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 11/0600Z 27.2N 87.0W 50 KT
72HR VT 12/0600Z 31.5N 88.5W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 13/0600Z 36.5N 87.0W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
0 likes
-
HURRICANELONNY
- Category 5
- Posts: 1387
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 6:48 am
- Location: HOLLYWOOD.FL
ARLENE
The more disorganized she is the more rain for Florida. If Arlene became tightly rapped then most of the worst convection wound move west. But as it looks now another wet and possible flooding weekend for me in S. Fl. I guess I won't be riding my Honda Shadow again this weekend.
0 likes
-
AussieMark
- Category 5
- Posts: 5858
- Joined: Tue Sep 02, 2003 6:36 pm
- Location: near Sydney, Australia
June 9th and we have our "A" storm.
since 1950 here are the years with the A storm before this point.
Ana in 2003 became a tropical storm on April 20
Allison in 2001 became a tropical storm on June 5
Allison in 1995 became a tropical storm on June 3
Andrew in 1986 became a tropical storm on June 6
Alberto in 1982 became a tropical storm on June 3
Arlene in 1981 became a tropical storm on May 7
Alma in 1970 became a tropical storm on May 20
Abby in 1968 became a tropical storm on June 2
Alma in 1966 became a tropical storm on June 6
Arlene in 1959 became a tropical storm on May 29
Alice in 1953 became a tropical storm on May 25
Able in 1951 became a tropical storm on May 16
since 1950 here are the years with the A storm before this point.
Ana in 2003 became a tropical storm on April 20
Allison in 2001 became a tropical storm on June 5
Allison in 1995 became a tropical storm on June 3
Andrew in 1986 became a tropical storm on June 6
Alberto in 1982 became a tropical storm on June 3
Arlene in 1981 became a tropical storm on May 7
Alma in 1970 became a tropical storm on May 20
Abby in 1968 became a tropical storm on June 2
Alma in 1966 became a tropical storm on June 6
Arlene in 1959 became a tropical storm on May 29
Alice in 1953 became a tropical storm on May 25
Able in 1951 became a tropical storm on May 16
0 likes
209
WTNT21 KNHC 091146
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
1200Z THU JUN 09 2005
AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE CITY OF HAVANA AND
HAVANA PROVINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO HAVANA PROVINCE...INCLUDING THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 84.0W AT 09/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 84.0W AT 09/1200Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 83.9W
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.0N 84.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N 84.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.7N 85.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.2N 87.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 84.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
WTNT21 KNHC 091146
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012005
1200Z THU JUN 09 2005
AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE CITY OF HAVANA AND
HAVANA PROVINCE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
WESTERN CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO TO HAVANA PROVINCE...INCLUDING THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 84.0W AT 09/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 84.0W AT 09/1200Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 83.9W
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.0N 84.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 22.2N 84.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.7N 85.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 75SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.2N 87.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 36.5N 87.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 84.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z
FORECASTER BEVEN
$$
0 likes
-
LSU2001
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1711
- Age: 58
- Joined: Sat Sep 11, 2004 11:01 pm
- Location: Cut Off, Louisiana
three early arlenes huh!
Looks our girl likes to get an early start on things
Looks our girl likes to get an early start on things
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 645 guests