10 am CDT Arlene Advisory and discussion 1002 mb

[jax]

Tropical Storm Arlene Advisory Number 5


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on June 09, 2005


...Weather should worsen over western Cuba today as Arlene
approaches...

at 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued
for the Dry Tortugas.

At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for western Cuba from
Pinar del Rio to city of Havana and Havana provinces...including the
Isle of Youth.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm
Arlene was located near latitude 19.4 north...longitude 84.1 west
or about 190 miles... 305 km...west of Grand Cayman and about 165
miles... 270 km...south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.

Arlene is moving toward the north near 8 mph ...13 km/hr. This
general motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in
forward speed during the next 24 hours...bringing the center near
or over western Cuba tonight or early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph... 65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. An
Air Force plane will check Arlene this afternoon.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 150 miles...240 km
to the north and east of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb...29.59 inches.
Heavy rainfall...accompanied by squalls...is spreading across the
Cayman Islands...as well as central and western Cuba and into the
southern Florida Keys. Total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches
are possible in these areas in association with Arlene....mainly to
the north and east of the center.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...19.4 N... 84.1 W. Movement
toward...north near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1002 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.

Forecaster Avila/Knabb

[jax]

Tropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number 5


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on June 09, 2005



satellite images suggest that Arlene is somewheat sheared with the
center of circulation located to the southwest of a rather strong
curved convective band...where most of the strongest winds are
occurring. The overall pattern has improved since yesterday and
T-numbers are 2.0 and 2.5 on the Dvorak scale. There have been no
new surface observations of tropical storm force winds during the
past few hours...but the best estimate of the initial intensity
remains at 35 knots. Another reconnaissance plane will be in the
area later today. The shear may relax a little bit during the next
couple of days as the upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico
weakens. This could allow Arlene to strengthen some before reaching
the northern Gulf Coast...as indicated by SHIPS and the GFDL
models.
The center of Arlene is not well defined...so it is difficult to
ascertain the initial motion. The best estimate is 350 degrees at 7
knots. A mid-level ridge is forecast to gradually strengthen over
the western Atlantic...which should lead to a steady increase in
forward speed and maybe a turn more to the north-northwest over the
Gulf Mexico. This is consistent with the dynamical models and the
Florida State University superensemble.

Forecaster Avila/Knabb

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 09/1500z 19.4n 84.1w 35 kt
12hr VT 10/0000z 21.5n 84.5w 40 kt
24hr VT 10/1200z 23.8n 85.5w 45 kt
36hr VT 11/0000z 26.0n 86.5w 50 kt
48hr VT 11/1200z 28.5n 87.5w 50 kt
72hr VT 12/1200z 34.0n 88.0w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 13/1200z 38.5n 85.5w 20 kt...inland dissipating
120hr VT 14/1200z...

[Brent]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Somewheat?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The Caymans are getting hit very hard. Any reports?

[Brent]

The Caymans are getting hit very hard. Any reports?

Looks like just a lot of torrential rain and some gusty winds. More of a flood problem than anything.

[TexasStooge]

Here are the maps of Arlene (Click for loop:

[BayouVenteux]

The Caymans are getting hit very hard. Any reports?

After Ivan's visit last year, I think the term "hit" has a whole new level of meaning for Caymanians. Other than the cruise tenders being unable to pick up the visiting tourists, it's probably just a windy, rainy day.