TS Arlene discussion 5

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TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT ARLENE IS SOMEWHEAT SHEARED WITH THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A RATHER STRONG
CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND...WHERE MOST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
OCCURRING. THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND
T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO
NEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE
AREA LATER TODAY. THE SHEAR MAY RELAX A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WEAKENS. THIS COULD ALLOW ARLENE TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE REACHING
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AS INDICATED BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL
MODELS.

THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS NOT WELL DEFINED...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN THE INITIAL MOTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 350 DEGREES AT 7
KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND MAYBE A TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE
GULF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE
FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECASTER AVILA/KNABB

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 19.4N 84.1W 35 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 21.5N 84.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 26.0N 86.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 28.5N 87.5W 50 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 34.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 13/1200Z 38.5N 85.5W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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