NWS Miami on Arlene

[Vortex]

Looks to be wet and windy here in S. Fl



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
222 PM EDT THU JUN 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...PRECARIOUS POSITION FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING IN THE EXTENDED RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF TROPICAL STORM
ARLENE...A QUADRANT FAVORED FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AIDED TORNADOES AND
TRAINING ECHOES WITH HEAVY RAINS. WILL EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH
AREA TO INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE THERE IS NO WAY TO
PINPOINT EXACTLY WHERE TRAINING ECHOES COULD SET UP AND PRODUCE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT TIME. CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH
FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVING BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY OVER THE
WEEKEND...MENTIONING HEAVY RAINS.

WILL BE VERY WINDY ALSO ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BECAUSE OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN ARLENE AND THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THIS SCENARIO COULD FAVOR QUICK MOVING
FAST DEVELOPING SMALL TORNADOES WITH ANY SPIRAL BANDS THAT MOVE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SO MUST BE ALERT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AS WELL
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

HAD TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM THE NAM AND GFS...WITH THE NAM
SHOWING DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE EAST
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CENTER OF ARLENE 250 MILES OR SO
WEST OF COLLIER AT THAT TIME...DECIDED TO TAKE A MORE CONSERVATIVE
ROAD AND GO WITH PERSISTENT WET PATTERN.

TRENDED SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AT NAPLES
ANTICIPATING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...ALTHOUGH ARLENE IS FORECAST TO BE ONSHORE
SUNDAY...THERE STILL SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO CONTINUE OUR VERY WET PATTERN. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
LAST NIGHTS GFSLR SHOWING ARLENE REMNANTS DRIFTING EAST ACROSS
GEORGIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND THE LATEST GFS SHOWING ARLENE
REMNANTS DRIFTING AROUND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WILL TREND
BACK TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY. ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW IS SPUN UP BY THE GFS
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY MOVING NORTH ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TUESDAY. FACT OR FICTION STILL
UNKNOWN.

[Brent]

ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW IS SPUN UP BY THE GFS
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY MOVING NORTH ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TUESDAY. FACT OR FICTION STILL
UNKNOWN.

[dixiebreeze]

ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW IS SPUN UP BY THE GFS
IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON MONDAY MOVING NORTH ACROSS HISPANIOLA
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS TUESDAY. FACT OR FICTION STILL
UNKNOWN.

LOL -- love a Met with a sense of humor.

[Cookiely]

At least he's honest. Gotta admit when you don't know something for sure.