Cuba will destroy this thing.

[slowjoe]

What are the thoughts on the Cuban mountains destroying this thing.

There is dry air to the west and mountains for the convection to traverse. I hate to see this thing dissipate but....I do not see this thing getting much stronger.

[LSU2001]

I thought the western end of cuba was flat. No mountains.?
Tim

[ncweatherwizard]

It's very unlikely that it will traverse Cuba for long; the extreme western tip of Cuba furthermore, I believe consists of coastal plains--so I don't see land as a significant inhibitor unless something changes.

[DoctorHurricane2003]

um western cuba is nearly as flat as the bahamas.

It may weaken 5 mph at most. I give that a 35% chance of happening though.

[kevin]

There are no (very tall...) mountains in the west of Cuba. I will find a map to illustrate and edit it in here.

http://media.maps.com/magellan/Images/eCUB-T.gif

[Normandy]

I dont think Cuba did much to Charley.

[LSU2001]

or Ivan

[slowjoe]

My ignorance of western Cuban topology is exposed.

[cycloneye]

Mountains at western Cuba are small.

[kevin]

Nothing to be ashamed of at all! I mean its western cuba and elevations, there are more important things to learn.

[Brent]

It will traverse it in an hour or so...

[bevgo]

I thought there was a link to topography posted that was going to be stickied(SP?) when there was a storm. Maybe I just missed it though. I think the area that Arlene will pass over has some mountains but not a lot. Could have some impact but wouldn't the dry air ahead have a stronger impact? Also how about shear? Any out there that may tear her apart?

[SouthernWx]

What are the thoughts on the Cuban mountains destroying this thing.

There is dry air to the west and mountains for the convection to traverse. I hate to see this thing dissipate but....I do not see this thing getting much stronger.

1) there are NO mountains in western Cuba...the land is almost flat.

2) both hurricane Camille and Frederic STRENGTHENED while crossing the western tip of Cuba.....many other hurricanes have crossed western Cuba with little or no loss of intensity (Alma in June 1966 a prime example).

PW

[alicia-w]

no mountains in western cuba? i dont think that's true. Sierra del Rosario is near Pinar del Rio. 50-550 meters in elevation

[AL Chili Pepper]

What are the thoughts on the Cuban mountains destroying this thing.

There is dry air to the west and mountains for the convection to traverse. I hate to see this thing dissipate but....I do not see this thing getting much stronger.

1) there are NO mountains in western Cuba...the land is almost flat.

2) both hurricane Camille and Frederic STRENGTHENED while crossing the western tip of Cuba.....many other hurricanes have crossed western Cuba with little or no loss of intensity (Alma in June 1966 a prime example).

PW

Frederic split the island right down the middle from east to west before strenthening over the western tip. Cuba is not nearly the party-pooper that Hispaniola is, much less the western tip.

[HURRICANELONNY]

It looks to me like an open wave. It's LLc is displaced from the convection. Unless the shear lessens it's a goner. It's early anyways so it probably won't make it. For sure there will be alot of rain in florida. In fact were under a flood watch here in S FL till friday evening.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Take a look at the ball of convection that has formed just south of Cuba. I think a LLC has reformed under it.

[Air Force Met]

It looks to me like an open wave. It's LLc is displaced from the convection. Unless the shear lessens it's a goner. It's early anyways so it probably won't make it. For sure there will be alot of rain in florida. In fact were under a flood watch here in S FL till friday evening.

It's certainly not an open wave. Do a vis loop and watch all the low level clouds to the south of the system moving rapidly to the east. Disorganized: Yes. Open: NOt by a long shot

[Aquawind]

Arlene has way to big of a circulation to have much effect.. She is fighting shear and dry air pretty well.. I don't think Cuba will do much other than prevent strengthening for the short time any center will be overhead. Yeah it's not a perfect pinwheel and probably won't get that until it'a past the island if at all.. Arlene looks highly lopsided..highly.. If the center would relocated under the deep convection then Cuba would probably disrupt it slightly if anything.. only to reform in the GOM.

Paul