BIG PUSH COMING FOR ARLENE....

[dixiebreeze]

Looks like Arlene will get a big push from the west soon, as well as the possiblity of infiltrating dry air. The track forecasts should become most interesting --- if she stays together:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg

[jax]

she's been up against that all day....
it seems to have stoped it's movement and should stat
to reteat soon... this is what's going to help Arlene accelerate
to the north...

[feederband]

Wow that is dry......

[Pigsnibble]

Certainly hasn't gotten any help from the dry air mass....vis images look almost stationary but its hard to see where a center may be

[dixiebreeze]

Sure hard to see signs of retreat, but maybe....

[jax]

Sure hard to see signs of retreat, but maybe....

it's a huge air mass... it'll take 12 to 24 hours to reverse.
if you look at a loop that goes back far enough you will see
the dry air RUSHING south yesterday... the leading edge has
stalled and is getting a little tattered....

[Steve]

As dry as that air is (and that brown is usually bone dry), look over at New Orleans (still in the black). It's been cumulus clouds all day and a thunderstorm just hit downtown for about 10 minutes. So the dry is relative to where you are between the juice and the brown air. The black is supporting convection.

Steve

[dwg71]

Between the dry air mass to the west of her and the dry air mass east of FL, its going to be a tough road to ho. I really dont see this getting to a Cat 1. It does appear to me that it could be further east than projected now, base on the following link that does not show the Atlantic High building very quickly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Trader Ron]

Lots of Dry Air..I'll stick with my forecast of a minimal TS.

[tracyswfla]

I was just going to make that same comment dwg. I would think that the dry air (in my very novice weather assumptions) would force Arlene more to the East. Someone put me in my place if I am incorrect. I do want to learn. Is that ridge building that the models are basing their forecast on?

Thanks!

[x-y-no]

Between the dry air mass to the west of her and the dry air mass east of FL, its going to be a tough road to ho. I really dont see this getting to a Cat 1. It does appear to me that it could be further east than projected now, base on the following link that does not show the Atlantic High building very quickly.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Sorry ... no disrespect at all but I just had to point out that the expression is "tough row to hoe." What you wrote would mean something quite different.

[dwg71]

noone taken, oops I did it again.

[duris]

And just in case anyone needs more re: the difference, the Seventh Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago was nice enough to explain the difference in a footnote to a recent opinion: "The trial transcript quotes Ms. Hayden as saying Murphy called her a snitch b***h 'hoe.' A 'hoe,' of course, is a tool used for weeding and gardening. ... We have taken the liberty of changing 'hoe' to 'ho,' a staple of rap music vernacular as, for example, when Ludacris raps, 'You doin' ho activities with ho tendencies.'"

[Agua]

I really dont see this getting to a Cat 1.

Me either. Can the thing just collapse?

[dixiebreeze]

Lots of Dry Air..I'll stick with my forecast of a minimal TS.

I agree Trader.

[LSU2001]

I thought the system was supposed to traverse the area between the dry air to the east and the dry air to the west. If you look at the WV loop the area between the two is quite moist and the system will be bringing in more.
Tim

[LaBreeze]

So, what's the latest on the strength of the Atlantic High? Is it building in or taking its good old time?

[FritzPaul]

I noticed the easterlies have kicked in here for the first time this season. The afternoon T storms have been moving from east to west. They haven't done that since last season.

[LaBreeze]

Could the movement of these t-storms be due to the ULL that a local met said was sitting over western Louisiana?

[FritzPaul]

Good point! I just looked @ the WV for the GOM. With all the ULL's coming out of Texas this year, I got excited when I saw some westerly movement of the afternoon TS's and hastely thought that it was a sign of the Bermuda high building in.