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x-y-no
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#41 Postby x-y-no » Thu Jun 09, 2005 3:49 pm

URNT11 KNHC 092040
97779 20334 50194 83200 04700 20023 24236 /0003
42015
RMK AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 05
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#42 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:16 pm

URNT14 KNHC 092049
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01215 10856 10006 12221 06023
02213 20854 20005 22221 06028
03212 30852 30005 32221 05027
04210 40851 40004 42222 05026
05208 50849 50004 52222 05029
06206 60847 60003 62222 04027
07205 70845 70002 72322 02016
08203 80843 80002 82323 99005
MF214 M0855 MF032
OBS 01 AT 19:33:10Z
OBS 08 AT 20:07:20Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 05020
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01200 10839 10002 12323 21015
02198 20837 20002 22422 21017
03196 30835 30002 32422 20020
04194 40833 40003 42423 20020
MF194 M0832 MF023
OBS 01 AT 20:17:00Z
OBS 04 AT 20:32:00Z
OBS 04 SFC WND 20015
AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 06

Mike (senorpepr) or any who has knowledge about the suplementary vortex come and replie about what means. :)
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#43 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:20 pm

cycloneye wrote:URNT14 KNHC 092049
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01215 10856 10006 12221 06023
02213 20854 20005 22221 06028
03212 30852 30005 32221 05027
04210 40851 40004 42222 05026
05208 50849 50004 52222 05029
06206 60847 60003 62222 04027
07205 70845 70002 72322 02016
08203 80843 80002 82323 99005
MF214 M0855 MF032
OBS 01 AT 19:33:10Z
OBS 08 AT 20:07:20Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 05020
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01200 10839 10002 12323 21015
02198 20837 20002 22422 21017
03196 30835 30002 32422 20020
04194 40833 40003 42423 20020
MF194 M0832 MF023
OBS 01 AT 20:17:00Z
OBS 04 AT 20:32:00Z
OBS 04 SFC WND 20015
AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 06


Mike or any who has knowledge about the suplementary vortex come and replie about what means. :)


LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01215 10856 10006 12221 06023=23 knots/60 degrees/21.5 north/85.6
02213 20854 20005 22221 06028=28 knots/60 degrees/21.3 north/85.4
03212 30852 30005 32221 05027=27 knots/50 degrees/21.3 north/85.2
04210 40851 40004 42222 05026=26 knots/50 degrees/21.0 north/85.1
05208 50849 50004 52222 05029=29 knots/50 degrees/20.8 north/84.9
06206 60847 60003 62222 04027=27 knots/40 degrees/20.6 north/84.7
07205 70845 70002 72322 02016=16 knots/20.5 north/84.5 west.
08203 80843 80002 82323 99005=05 knots Vrt...20.3 north/84.3
MF214 M0855 MF032
OBS 01 AT 19:33:10Z
OBS 08 AT 20:07:20Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 05020
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01200 10839 10002 12323 21015
02198 20837 20002 22422 21017
03196 30835 30002 32422 20020
04194 40833 40003 42423 20020
MF194 M0832 MF023
OBS 01 AT 20:17:00Z
OBS 04 AT 20:32:00Z
OBS 04 SFC WND 20015
AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 06
[/b]
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#44 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:28 pm

551
URNT11 KNHC 092124
97779 21144 50213 82918 04700 10039 21219 /0004
41135
RMK AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 07

21.3n-82.9w,1004 mbs,soon they will have a fix vortex message on the NE Quadrant.
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#45 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:29 pm

and 39KT of wind in the NE quad
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#46 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:551
URNT11 KNHC 092124
97779 21144 50213 82918 04700 10039 21219 /0004
41135
RMK AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 07


21.3n-82.9w,1004 mbs,soon they will have a fix vortex message on the NE Quadrant.



Interesting 10039=100 degrees at 39 knots
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#47 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:32 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:and 39KT of wind in the NE quad


Yep. Still a TS. Looks like the vortice is starting to rotate around the bottom of the circulation. Should move fairly rapidly back towards the convection over the next few hours. Kinda surprised it held together this afternoon.
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#48 Postby tailgater » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:37 pm

Did you notice the pressure at the new buoy 29.59 the center must be just tic east winds almost due N
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#49 Postby Wpwxguy » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:43 pm

Sorry, double post.
Last edited by Wpwxguy on Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#50 Postby Wpwxguy » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:43 pm

Air Force Met, in the last image of visible loop there seems to be almost a fanning out of the burst of convection north of that llc thats been hanging around. Is this the suspect area for a new center to form?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#51 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 09, 2005 4:45 pm

I think a new LLC is starting to form under that ball of convection just south of Cuba. If so this system would look alot more classic.
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#52 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:05 pm

URNT12 KNHC 092202
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/21:35:30Z
B. 20 deg 46 min N
083 deg 52 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 40 kt
E. 69 deg 036 nm
F. 094 deg 046 kt
G. 58 deg 060 nm
H. EXTRAP 1001 mb
I. 21 C/ 470 m
J. 22 C/ 469 m
K. 22 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 /01
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF302 0301A ARLENE OB 08
MAX FL WIND 46 KT NE QUAD 21:15:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C, 78 / 29NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.

46 kt NE Quad.
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#53 Postby Brent » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:06 pm

A little stronger anyone???
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#54 Postby hurricanedude » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:08 pm

doubt it....there just looking in the right place..LOL
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#55 Postby LSU2001 » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:08 pm

51.6 mph HMMM
Looks like she is starting to get her act together after such a bad hair day!
:lol: :lol:
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#56 Postby Brent » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:09 pm

lsu2001 wrote:51.6 mph HMMM
Looks like she is starting to get her act together after such a bad hair day!
:lol: :lol:


You have to reduce for surface winds though... probably 45 mph.
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#57 Postby LSU2001 » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:11 pm

true I forgot about the flight level but still that seems to be a little stronger
TIm
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#58 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:11 pm

The center I'm sure is near that area of convection.
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#59 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:16 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The center I'm sure is near that area of convection.


I agree. The 10:30 p.m. update should be revealing.
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#60 Postby LSU2001 » Thu Jun 09, 2005 5:17 pm

Oh yeah,
The max forecast winds for this thing is 50kts. right. If it is at 36-40.6 now based on 80-90% reduction from flight level. It really does not have that far to go to meet the forecast. Am I calculating that correct?
Feedback Please
TIm
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